Eskom Load Shed Dial: A Theory

[Moederloos]

I have been thinking about that dial.

It has 4 colours:
green
orange
red
brown.

My theory is that the dial works hand in hand with MW produced.
But, in addition, like this:

If we are in GREEN, then reserve capacity exceeds 15%.
ORANGE: reserve is 10-15%
RED: reserve is 5-10%
BROWN: reserve is under 5%.

Those "reserve figures" are guesses - BTW - they could differ, but my argument remains.

This "reserve capacity" has nothing to do with the actual MW produced.
If we produce 30 000MW, and use 26500, then reserve is a bit more than 10% - hence ORANGE.

At the moment, it is on BROWN - even though the mines are not operating fully.
Since the mines use 30% or so of power, and we produce 38000MW, we can then say we are, today, producing 26500MW. And we are using close on that - since we are in BROWN, but have no loadshedding.

Where is the other 12000MW?


Anyone have additions / criticisms to my logic?

[ToxicBunny]

My comment on that dial is that it is complete rubbish.

I doubt it has ANY connection to the real situation going on with Eskom's powergrid and the state of powerusage in this country.

[Moederloos]

My comment on that dial is that it is complete rubbish.

I doubt it has ANY connection to the real situation going on with Eskom's powergrid and the state of powerusage in this country.

Yeah, I have a sneaky suspicion that is true.
But where is the fun in analysing that? :D

[gdiza]

I'm glad you think this is all fun Moederloos :D

[Moederloos]

I'm glad you think this is all fun Moederloos :D

heh.
It is interesting - one cannot deny that.

[gdiza]

Agreed.

But fun... nee boet! ;)

[bekdik]

http://www.eskom.co.za/zqf/process.asp

If you look here and at the wheel, it doesn't make too much sense!

[ToxicBunny]

Nope it doesn't..

Also like the fact that the process page is done in Frontpage 3.0, and it seems to be about as dynamic as a page from 1995

[The_Librarian]

You think we still export power?

[Moederloos]

You think we still export power?

You think we don't?
;)

[Syndyre]

My comment on that dial is that it is complete rubbish.

I doubt it has ANY connection to the real situation going on with Eskom's powergrid and the state of powerusage in this country.

That's what it seems like to me too.


You think we still export power?

Almost definitely, probably for no charge as well.

[HavocXphere]

You think we still export power?
Given Eskoms recent style, I suspect that they don't actually know what power is going where.

[abjater]

Ok, got a definitive answer from Mr Gustav Radlof, who's got a lot to do with the sites and how the info is displayed. I'm sure he wont mind me posting what he said.
It seems the poweralert site is based on both DEMAND and CAPACITY.
And that this site is more accurate than the eskom page.


It is a complete mess…

We are working VERY hard to make this system more usable – it should be up and running mid Feb – provided that we can secure buy-in from all role-players .

Eskom National Control decides (dynamically) which schedule to use depending on the severity of the problem. As soon as they decide on a schedule, they let us know and the one we publish from the poweralert site is the one that they are supposed to be implementing. The power alert site is updated much more frequently than the Eskom site and will have the latest information.

We are planning to automate this so that you can sign up and get notified each day when your area will be without power (sms or email).

This is taking longer than we would have liked but we are making progress.

1. Thanks for the screen capture – I can see how that can be misleading. The green arrow showing “Electricity usage Down” should have been yellow – this we will fix. The dial on the home page would have been in Yellow – not green. If this was not the case, please let me know and we will investigate this discrepancy. The fact that the Eskom page said no shedding is correct.
2. The trouble this last month was available supply capacity – not really high load. The switch to yellow around 1:00 would have been at a time when a generator (or a station) came back on line.
3. The Green between 5 and 6 would (again) have been due to supply resources being available. This may be a gas turbine or (more likely) hydro station that is available for a period.

The conditions (Green, Yellow, Red and Brown) is calculated based on the expected load forecast which is combined with the expected supply capacity available at any given time. If the supply capacity drops off, you can get Brown stages when the load is reducing (or already very low).

I hope this clarifies things somewhat?
Thanks again for the feedback, we will investigate the potential fault you’ve indicated.

[Syndyre]

Ok, got a definitive answer from Mr Gustav Radlof, who's got a lot to do with the sites and how the info is displayed. I'm sure he wont mind me posting what he said.
It seems the poweralert site is based on both DEMAND and CAPACITY.
And that this site is more accurate than the eskom page.



Thanks.



It is a complete mess…


Finally some honesty.

[fragtion]

http://www.eskom.co.za/zqf/process.asp

If you look here and at the wheel, it doesn't make too much sense!

^^^

http://mybroadband.co.za/vb/showthread.php?p=1458481

That page isnt even updating anymore, and I havent received any more replies from eskom or poweralert asking for live MW stats info. I dont see why they cant provide this? Eskom is a public company who really should reveal such stats anyway? Plus, why fear accountability? It's our damn rights to know the information, ESPECIALLY if there's a crisis like this.

[Nod]

The gf got "loadshedded" for a total of 4min just now. Why?

[fragtion]

The gf got "loadshedded" for a total of 4min just now. Why?
gf ?

[Nod]

gf ?

girlfriend :p

[chiskop]

I have been thinking about that dial.

It has 4 colours:
green
orange
red
brown.

My theory is that the dial works hand in hand with MW produced.
But, in addition, like this:

If we are in GREEN, then reserve capacity exceeds 15%.
ORANGE: reserve is 10-15%
RED: reserve is 5-10%
BROWN: reserve is under 5%.

Those "reserve figures" are guesses - BTW - they could differ, but my argument remains.

This "reserve capacity" has nothing to do with the actual MW produced.
If we produce 30 000MW, and use 26500, then reserve is a bit more than 10% - hence ORANGE.

At the moment, it is on BROWN - even though the mines are not operating fully.
Since the mines use 30% or so of power, and we produce 38000MW, we can then say we are, today, producing 26500MW. And we are using close on that - since we are in BROWN, but have no loadshedding.

Where is the other 12000MW?


Anyone have additions / criticisms to my logic?

I have figured out that brown means we are in deep ****, not sure about the other colours yet.

[Moederloos]

I have figured out they are now manipulating the "curtailment" to ensure no "load shedding".
Load shedding, iow, is now load curtailment.

[DJ...]

I have figured out they are now manipulating...

Lets just leave it at that!