12 Experts Questioning the Coronavirus Panic

Nicodeamus

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Or something.
I think they just made a decision in the moment and we have to live with it and learn from it.
o yes, there was a lot of panic and not a lot of thought going into any of this. but surely with new data our decisions and response have to change?
 

saor

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o yes, there was a lot of panic and not a lot of thought going into any of this. but surely with new data our decisions and response have to change?
With all this new data surfacing and models being generated in real time as lockdowns unfold - I'd rather just see this 3 weeks through as it's already in motion and use whatever data we have at the end of it to make a decision about how to move forward. This new data you're quoting is still very fresh and imo we could use more time for it to be looked over and confirmed etc.
 

Nicodeamus

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Just noting here that this has all happened before. We've had four major flu pandemics in the last century: Spanish Flu, Asian Flu, Hong Kong Flu, and the 2009 Swine Flu outbreak. Swine flu was an H1N1 flu, similar to Spanish Flu with about the same infectivity. We've also had pandemics of other viruses like smallpox and measles, and Africa has decades of experience managing Ebola outbreaks.
right, but this is the first global pandemic that caused this amount of paranoids. I briefly remember the Swine flu epidemic and while some Universities, schools and businesses did closed down, I don't recall the end of the economy.

In each one the same questions were asked by pundits who were critical of the government's decisions after following the recommendations of doctors, scientists, and epidemiologists. Every time, it's been demonstrated that containment measures such as social distancing, self-isolation, quarantine, and even full lockdown modes have been the most effective in stopping a pandemic. This has been the measure shown to have the most effect. Historical records show that even in biblical times there were mass shutdowns of government and countries in an effort to contain a pandemic, even though epidemiologists weren't a thing back then.
that is where I disagree, very often we think that these work, but it might actually be something complete else. Its the logical fallacy of A comes before B, therefore A causes B.

It's not an extreme measure in the face of the facts: pandemics can be stopped if the people are stopped. The choice is up to governments as to how many lives they want to lose to it. The outbreak will eventually stop because enough people are dying that it naturally causes everyone to stay at home.
I agree that if this was the Spanish flu of 1918 then hiding in our houses might make sense, but the WHO data doesn't even remotely support that claim.

It's not strictly the pandemic that led to those situations. Spanish Flu left everyone reeling and for a decade economic growth across the world was stunted. If there's ever a revolution or a dictatorship installed, it's only because of a power vacuum left by a lacking leadership. That can happen even without a novel coronavirus streaking across the nation and overwhelming hospitals.
Sure, its not just the Spanish flu though. Haiti for example got its independence from France because all the Soldiers died of Yellow Fever as they got on board.

We also know that the black death lead to the rise of the middle class. So there is a bit of good and bad that can come from this. My prediction is that we have now accelerated the cold war with China.

It's a generally well-established fact that a lot of countries aren't doing enough tests to get accurate enough data about the pandemic. Even our numbers are subject to this, even though the trend matches other countries. Still, the evidence from previous pandemics shows that the inflection point is the briefest of windows during which you can implement measures that will be effective to halt the spread of the disease. Data from the Spanish Flu pandemic shows this clearly:

View attachment 812177

The graphs are small, but you can still see inflection points, and some cities across the US chose that moment to put measures in place, some did not. Some put measures in much earlier. The prominent example here is Pittsburgh. With a large population, they implemented measures right at the inflection points, and managed a much lower peak despite having more dead than Philadelphia.
so yes, this is where it does get quite interesting and it I think that we are seeing this again in Italy, France and Spain. I for example got COVID19 in the supermarket, and that is because the short closing down forced us all to buy food at the same location.

These curves do not however take into account the human immune system and they have to control for age, underlying conditions, air quality etc. It seems like a bit of a broad brush.


To address your point on testing, yes countries test at an appealing rate, but we can still count the amount of deaths as you cannot generally hide a body and what strikes me odd is that Sweden with relatively no confinement had more or less the same curve as France that had tons of confinement. That is where the A before B fallacy comes in.

The measures taken by countries globally are extreme, but we have much larger populations than we did back in 1917. We have rapid modes of transport, air travel, and all sorts of comorbidities in addition to issues like air pollution and lacking diets. Social distancing measures mean jack **** when the virus has the ability to cross the Atlantic in less than 12 hours.
sure, I agree and that is why I believe that countries who think that they can self-isolate from this is living in fanatic land.

Even the prophet Muhammed in the Quran wrote that during times of plague people should stay inside the borders of the country suffering the plague and not leave it for fear of spreading it to another country.
he isn't really the first guy that I want to consult on epidemics Its human instinc to want to seal of from the world, but does it really work?


Think about what you're saying here. You're arguing that these measures might be overbearing and unconstitutional, violating your human rights, but you also wouldn't want to be the one to test whether the risk of contracting the virus is low enough that people should continue working. Even if the chance of dying is low if you're young, there's a lot of evidence that you can be healthy and still be hospitalised with serious symptoms, or die, thanks to a high initial viral delivery from coming into contact with each other.
sure you can be, but having had the virus now, I don't see it being that severe for most people.

Even if you're given the option, the able bodied and healthy have to make the Death Star decision. If you're desperate enough for work, you'll sign up to work on the second Death Star. If you're skittish enough that you'd prefer staying out of the line of fire of the war, you go find something else that's safer to fo.
This point to the fact again that humans badly judge risk, so the response is more about emotion than anything else.

Would you be OK with managing a country and telling everyone that it's alright to continue as normal during a pandemic? Would you be accepting of the consequences that doing so would enable the virus to spread faster, infect more people, and overwhelm your hospitals? Kill off major portions of your population? You would have people dying in the street.
Brazil is doing that and the UK did that until they buckled under pressure. so yes humans overstate the risks despite the evidence, but for some reason we don't sensibly judge the economic risk.
 

krycor

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You mean the president of Brazil is.. his regional mayors and premiers aren’t taking it lightly. He will also soon be ousted as a result.. Trump will survive on though
 

Nicodeamus

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You mean the president of Brazil is.. his regional mayors and premiers aren’t taking it lightly. He will also soon be ousted as a result.. Trump will survive on though
The Swedes seem to have pulled it off though and I agree Trump is going to ride the antichina sentiment until the election.
 

ghoti

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I think some people will just take up contrary positions in all of this because they like taking contrary positions. They will find any "evidence" to support that contrary view, and no logic can convince them otherwise.

It happens in all the sciences.
 

thestaggy

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Many appear to be from countries with better health care than that of Italy. From point of view of countries least affected, the panic is unwarranted but those in the frontlines of the battle know full well what would've happened had governments not imposed lockdowns.

Granted, they're medical experts with years of research and experience in their fields but what is their collective experience with pandemics like this?
How much better? Lombardy, the area hardest hit in Italy, has one of the best health systems in Europe.
 

Nicodeamus

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I think some people will just take up contrary positions in all of this because they like taking contrary positions. They will find any "evidence" to support that contrary view, and no logic can convince them otherwise.

It happens in all the sciences.
Yes, but if the observations contradict the original models then perhaps we need to rethink if we aren't misleading ourselves. That is the scientific method.
 

Nicodeamus

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How much better? Lombardy, the area hardest hit in Italy, has one of the best health systems in Europe.
It also has the dirties air in Europe, it is in a sense the China of Europe. Also there is a lot of critique on how they count their deaths.
 

ghoti

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Yes, but if the observations contradict the original models then perhaps we need to rethink if we aren't misleading ourselves. That is the scientific method.
They would, if it was scientific.
 

Nicodeamus

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They would, if it was scientific.
That is what is currently happening and the government's response is not changing adequately. As I said, original predictions put the death rate at 3.5% (equivalent to the Spanish Flu), but after the data came out its much much lower (less than 0.6% according to a standford study) and that also includes an underestimated denominator.
 

Nicodeamus

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For all we know the Corona is used as a cover up for a bigger world wide government agenda.
I think it is more of a case of overeacting and politicians not understanding risks. Governments are what they are however and they do always try and make a leviathan out of a crises.
 

Geoff.D

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And very few are even discussing the validity and accuracy of the data coming from China. China is point A.
And the WHO is so compromised, why should anyone take any notice of their data?
Even if the data is shown to be correct in the long run.
 

RedViking

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I think it is more of a case of overeacting and politicians not understanding risks. Governments are what they are however and they do always try and make a leviathan out of a crises.
If your wife was dead next to you, wonder if you would still say the same. Anyways, there is already a thread

 

Nicodeamus

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And very few are even discussing the validity and accuracy of the data coming from China. China is point A.
And the WHO is so compromised, why should anyone take any notice of their data?
Even if the data is shown to be correct in the long run.
The data from chine clusters around the same graph if you consider that it only occured in Hubei provence, but yes a communist is a commie.

I point you again to this graph.

1585990569538.png
 
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