12 Experts Questioning the Coronavirus Panic

RedViking

Nord of the South
Joined
Feb 23, 2012
Messages
30,977
And very few are even discussing the validity and accuracy of the data coming from China. China is point A.
And the WHO is so compromised, why should anyone take any notice of their data?
Even if the data is shown to be correct in the long run.
I have no doubt that there is a valid concern. But I also have no doubt that the power hungry leaders will use the opportunity to further their personal agendas.
 

Nicodeamus

Executive Member
Joined
Sep 20, 2006
Messages
8,450
If your wife was dead next to you, wonder if you would still say the same. Anyways, there is already a thread


That is still anecdotal though, but sure as an individual I would have overreacted.

I can put the same question to you, if you would go hungry tomorrow, because you cannot go to work, would you also take COVID19 seriously?
 

Geoff.D

Honorary Master
Joined
Aug 4, 2005
Messages
16,851
I think it is more of a case of overeacting and politicians not understanding risks. Governments are what they are however and they do always try and make a leviathan out of a crises.
If it suits their agenda. And in SA, the ANC is in such a mess that they would grab anything to try and take the attention off their role in destroying this country. They now have the makings of a perfect chance to blame ALL our woes on an invisible 3rd force not of their making.
Watch this space!
 

RedViking

Nord of the South
Joined
Feb 23, 2012
Messages
30,977
That is still anecdotal though, but sure as an individual I would have overreacted.

I can put the same question to you, if you would go hungry tomorrow, because you cannot go to work, would you also take COVID19 seriously?
Like I said, there is already a thread. No need to repeat the whole argument.
 

Arthur

Honorary Master
Joined
Aug 7, 2003
Messages
25,242
The one Great Unknown in all this is the magnitude of the denominator.

The reported number of infections must, with certainty, be only a fraction of the real number in the wild. We know from the Diamond Princess that at least half the infected are asymptomatic or show minor sniffles at worst.

The denominator is the all-important determinant of CFR, and the plain bare truth is we have not the foggiest notion within even two or three orders of magnitude - the testing capacity simply doesn't exist.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if at least five to twenty million South Africans are already infected. By all accounts this is quite a virulent pathogen and it might well have propagated and penetrated far wider than we had thought.

Indeed, I hope it has spread widely, as, absent a vaccine, this is the only way of building herd immunity. Especially before the Southern Winter.

As to the economic and ensuing social and political fallout, those are in my view of far greater consequence than a few dozen thousands of deaths from this or any other pathogen. Human flourishing and wellbeing is under dire threat, but not from this virus.
 
Last edited:

RedViking

Nord of the South
Joined
Feb 23, 2012
Messages
30,977
Indeed, I hope it has spread widely, as, absent a vaccine, this is the only way of building herd immunity.



I think part of the problem is people trying to be experts that are not. There are far more better qualified people working with what they have on the virus. If they thought spreading it as widely and quickly as possible, they would have done that. But what do the experts know.


Edit:
I confused @Arthur for @Nicodeamus again. Argh....
 
Last edited:

Nicodeamus

Executive Member
Joined
Sep 20, 2006
Messages
8,450
The one Great Unknown in all this is the magnitude of the denominator.

The reported number of infections must, with certainty, be only a fraction of the real number in the wild. We know from the Diamond Princess that at last half the infected are asymptomatic or show minor sniffles at worst.

The denominator is the all-important determinant of CFR, and the plain bare truth is we have not the foggiest notion within even two or three orders of magnitude - the testing capacity simply doesn't exist.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if at least five to twenty million South Africans are already infected. By all accounts this is quite a virulent pathogen and it might well have propagated and penetrated far wider than we had thought.

Indeed, I hope it has spread widely, as, absent a vaccine, this is the only way of building herd immunity.

As to the economic and ensuing social and political fallout, those are in my view of far greater consequence then a few dozen thousands of deaths from this or any other pathogen.

The only country that can give you the best estimate is Germany, but there is also speculation that they might be testing some people twice and it might end up tinier than the flu.
 

Geoff.D

Honorary Master
Joined
Aug 4, 2005
Messages
16,851
The entire "flatten the curve" strategy is based on encouraging not stopping infection but doing it in a way that is manageable. And deaths are inevitable so why worry about it?
 

RedViking

Nord of the South
Joined
Feb 23, 2012
Messages
30,977
For herd immunity to take hold, people must become resistant after they are infected. That occurs with many germs: people who are infected and recover become resistant to getting that disease again, because their immune system is charged with antibodies able to defeat it.


About 80,000 people have recovered from the coronavirus already, and it’s likely they are now resistant, although the degree of immunity remains unknown. “I would be surprised, but not totally surprised, if people did not become immune,” says Myron Levine, an infectious disease expert at the University of Maryland. Some viruses, like the flu, do find ways to keep changing, which is why immunity against such seasonal germs isn’t complete.


The current germ’s rate of spread is higher than that of the ordinary flu, but similar to that of novel emergent influenzas that have occasionally swept the globe before. “That is similar to pandemic flu of 1918, and it implies that the end of this epidemic is going to require nearly 50% of the population to be immune, either from a vaccine, which is not on the immediate horizon, or from natural infection,” Harvard University epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch told a gathering of experts on a video call this weekend.

Similarly, if the coronavirus spreads more easily than the experts think, more people will need to get it before herd immunity is reached. For an R0 of 3, for example, 66% of the population has to be immune before the effect kicks in, according to the simplest model.



So theoretically herd immunity is possible, after millions have been sacrificed and health systems have completely collapsed.
 

Arthur

Honorary Master
Joined
Aug 7, 2003
Messages
25,242
The only country that can give you the best estimate is Germany, but there is also speculation that they might be testing some people twice and it might end up tinier than the flu.
So far they've only tested a single digit fraction of the population.

So the best guess of the experts is just that - a guess.

The very best scientific data we have is so incomplete that, when the dust settles, current figures might well turn out to be two or three orders of magnitude overstated.

We simply don't know.

The one little glimmer of hope I have is that over the next year or two the great majority of populations will have been tested, and we will then be in a position to scientifically establish that the Great CoronaPanic of 2020 was in fact one of the greatest mistakes and overreactions in history. Hopefully that will result in a reconfiguration of our politics, and a lot else besides. But, given human folly, that's rather unlikely, sad to say.
 

RedViking

Nord of the South
Joined
Feb 23, 2012
Messages
30,977
So far they've only tested a single digit fraction of the population.

So the best guess of the experts is just that - a guess.

The very best scientific data we have is so incomplete that, when the dust settles, current figures might well turn out to be two or three orders of magnitude overstated.

We simply don't know.

The one little glimmer of hope I have is that over the next year or two the great majority of populations will have been tested, and we will then be in a position to scientifically establish that the Great CoronaPanic of 2020 was in fact one of the greatest mistakes and overreactions in history.
Well the guess of the 'experts' will take all that in consideration when making a 'guess'. They have knowledge and access to much more data and how to apply it. The problem comes in when Politicians and GP's think they know better.
 

trompie_vyfster

Active Member
Joined
Mar 27, 2020
Messages
81
Chinese Wuhan virus being used as an opportunity to damage the Western economies, and increase communist influence in Africa. Soviet Communists themselves once stated that their aim is to "gain control of the two great treasure houses on which the West depends: the energy treasure house of the Persian Gulf, and the mineral treasure house of central and southern Africa" - Prof Leo Raditsa, Prisoners of a Dream.
 

Geoff.D

Honorary Master
Joined
Aug 4, 2005
Messages
16,851
And all this amateur statistical manipulation going on is just an educational exercise, with very very little true value. My suggestion is to look at it as a computer game but take no notice of the so-called conclusions, doom predictions and hype.
Consider it as a way to fight off isolation boredom nothing more.

An aside. This illustrates clearly for me anyway what is going on in other areas of "scientific study" such as weather, CC and many others.
 

Vrotappel

Bulls fan
Joined
Feb 22, 2005
Messages
19,886
Just look at the strain taken by health care all around the world and then imagine the scenario with no lock down in place. If we do nothing it will be much, much worse than it already is.
 

Geoff.D

Honorary Master
Joined
Aug 4, 2005
Messages
16,851
So far they've only tested a single digit fraction of the population.

So the best guess of the experts is just that - a guess.

The very best scientific data we have is so incomplete that, when the dust settles, current figures might well turn out to be two or three orders of magnitude overstated.

We simply don't know.

The one little glimmer of hope I have is that over the next year or two the great majority of populations will have been tested, and we will then be in a position to scientifically establish that the Great CoronaPanic of 2020 was in fact one of the greatest mistakes and overreactions in history. Hopefully that will result in a reconfiguration of our politics, and a lot else besides. But, given human folly, that's rather unlikely, sad to say.

You should write this down somewhere and record as your IP. :cool: :rolleyes:
 

flippakitten

Expert Member
Joined
Aug 5, 2015
Messages
2,114
You'd quickly change your tube when outsole you know start dying.

It's not just a bit panicky it's a ****ing pandemic... 12 people vs how many experts.
 
Top