12 Experts Questioning the Coronavirus Panic

Nicodeamus

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Here is also the view of Professor John Ioannidis of Stanford University, making the same critiques against the data that @Arthur is doing

He also shares the same critique that a lockdown might increase the spread of the virus, because the asymptomatic people aren't accounted for.
 

Nicodeamus

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time will tell how the deaths/capacity works out since it is also a function of the healthcare system.
Currently Sweden is ahead of the rest of Scandinavia. (i.e. more deaths).
 

Archer

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Hold on hold on, so in the beginning we thought this was going to be bad, so countries took all sorts of measures to limit deaths. And now that the deaths are limited the countries overreacted? :ROFL:

I was wondering how long it would take for this argument to surface. You also ignore the data you don't like. So what's the point of this thread?
 

Arthur

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Here is also the view of Professor John Ioannidis of Stanford University, making the same critiques against the data that @Arthur is doing

He also shares the same critique that a lockdown might increase the spread of the virus, because the asymptomatic people aren't accounted for.
Thanks for this. Just watched it. I agree with him in full.

Prof John Ioannidis is a personal hero of mine, and I've frequently cited him on MyBB over the years. He's not some loopy fringe scientists either - rather, for more than a decade he's probably the most frequently-invited keynote speaker at medical and scientific congresses worldwide, so the scientific community in especially biomedicine consider him as respectable and credentialed as it's possible to be. I especially savour and endorse his constant refrain that "science is the best thing we humans have". Do yourself a favour and watch some his scientific presentations. He's a voice of reason. He carefully and dispassionately - with hard data - shows convincingly that there are deep and serious problems in the way we incent, fund, analyse, review and report on what passes for "science". The problem isn't in the scientific method but rather in our social institutions that these days drive so much scientific endeavour. It's a critically important debate for the future of our civilisation.
 
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Vrotappel

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Hold on hold on, so in the beginning we thought this was going to be bad, so countries took all sorts of measures to limit deaths. And now that the deaths are limited the countries overreacted? :ROFL:

I was wondering how long it would take for this argument to surface. You also ignore the data you don't like. So what's the point of this thread?
Yeah zero comments about the countries where the health systems are struggling.

Cannot ignore facts.
 

Hamish McPanji

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sorry my Swedish is not that good. is it per capita or actual cases?




View attachment 812615
What's that column right at the end there?



Do you think it may have some sort of bearing on the number of cases?
time will tell how the deaths/capacity works out since it is also a function of the healthcare system.
Currently Sweden is ahead of the rest of Scandinavia. (i.e. more deaths).
All of it works as a function of the healthcare system. Including the testing.

Odd though, that the number of deaths/million seem to have some sort of correlation with the amount of testing/million in this case
 

Nicodeamus

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Hold on hold on, so in the beginning we thought this was going to be bad, so countries took all sorts of measures to limit deaths. And now that the deaths are limited the countries overreacted? :ROFL:

I was wondering how long it would take for this argument to surface. You also ignore the data you don't like. So what's the point of this thread?
i acknowledge that Sweden has more deaths, but it isn’t significantly more than its neighbors and also that data has to be put under scrutiny.
Generally the deaths follow the tests, but are they controlled for age, duration in hospital or date since incubation?
 

Nicodeamus

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What's that column right at the end there?



Do you think it may have some sort of bearing on the number of cases?
All of it works as a function of the healthcare system. Including the testing.

Odd though, that the number of deaths/million seem to have some sort of correlation with the amount of testing/million in this case
well yes it should if they start treating people early or late. To that extend testing helps.

However generally deaths are not that strongly correlated with the number of test, provided that only severe cases do get tested (like they do in France).

Basically, it is difficult to hide bodies.
 
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Hamish McPanji

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Hold on hold on, so in the beginning we thought this was going to be bad, so countries took all sorts of measures to limit deaths. And now that the deaths are limited the countries overreacted? :ROFL:

I was wondering how long it would take for this argument to surface. You also ignore the data you don't like. So what's the point of this thread?
He's just trying to push his narrative.

That's why he's caveating when the data doesn't match the narrative.

Heck, we can all do that. We just pick the data that closest match what we're trying to say. It's easy, there are so many countries...we can pick and choose
 

Nicodeamus

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Hold on hold on, so in the beginning we thought this was going to be bad, so countries took all sorts of measures to limit deaths. And now that the deaths are limited the countries overreacted? :ROFL:

I was wondering how long it would take for this argument to surface. You also ignore the data you don't like. So what's the point of this thread?
I am pointing out that some countries went into lockdown exactly when they were at inflection point. The UK being the most obvious.

Its the common logical fallacy of A comes before B, therefore A must cause B.
 

Nicodeamus

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He's just trying to push his narrative.

That's why he's caveating when the data doesn't match the narrative.

Heck, we can all do that. We just pick the data that closest match what we're trying to say. It's easy, there are so many countries...we can pick and choose
Which data am I not liking? Seriously,

I am considering Sweden as a control group for doing little to nothing. I suspect that Somalia can also do that, but they don't qualify for obvious reasons.
 

Nicodeamus

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Thanks for this. Just watched it. I agree with him in full.

Prof John Ioannidis is a personal hero of mine, and I've frequently cited him on MyBB over the years. He's not some loopy fringe scientists either - rather, for more than a decade he's probably the most frequently-invited keynote speaker at medical and scientific congresses worldwide, so the scientific community in especially biomedicine consider him as respectable and credentialed as it's possible to be. I especially savour and endorse his constant refrain that "science is the best thing we humans have". Do yourself a favour and watch some his scientific presentations. He's a voice of reason. He carefully and dispassionately - with hard data - shows convincingly that there are deep and serious problems in the way we incent, fund, analyse, review and report on what passes for "science". The problem isn't in the scientific method but rather in our social institutions that these days drive so much scientific endeavour. It's a critically important debate for the future of our civilisation.
I have read a few of his books on data analysis, this is the first time that I actually saw him speak. I regard him alongside Kahneman as a good source of how to try and eliminate bias.
 

Hamish McPanji

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Which data am I not liking? Seriously,

I am considering Sweden as a control group for doing little to nothing. I suspect that Somalia can also do that, but they don't qualify for obvious reasons.
You're showing the number of cases per million as something of value, but are willfully ignoring the fact that there is a huge variance in the amount of testing / million

You are saying that the difference in number of deaths /million is not significant enough, yet Sweden's death rate is 30% more than Denmark's, and more than 3 times that of Norway.

Each country has different testing methodology, different healthcare systems , different ways of recording the data, different patameters. Yet you only cite these as caveats when they don't match your story.

When there are too many variables, it's both a blessing and a curse for anyone analysing the data. Blessing because you can pick and choose, and make the data show pretty much what you want it to. And a curse because deep down in your heart you know that you cannot filter out those variables to the extent that the data resembles any sort of accuracy
 

buka001

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You're showing the number of cases per million as something of value, but are willfully ignoring the fact that there is a huge variance in the amount of testing / million

You are saying that the difference in number of deaths /million is not significant enough, yet Sweden's death rate is 30% more than Denmark's, and more than 3 times that of Norway.

Each country has different testing methodology, different healthcare systems , different ways of recording the data, different patameters. Yet you only cite these as caveats when they don't match your story.

When there are too many variables, it's both a blessing and a curse for anyone analysing the data. Blessing because you can pick and choose, and make the data show pretty much what you want it to. And a curse because deep down in your heart you know that you cannot filter out those variables to the extent that the data resembles any sort of accuracy
Reality beginning to settle in with the Swedish government -

 

Hamish McPanji

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Reality beginning to settle in with the Swedish government -

This scenario regarding the public data we are recieving is weird. Have been looking at it in detail by pulling in data sets from the internet and the various APIs that have popped up all over the place.

The only conclusion that can be reached is that we don't actually have enough information. The officials in the various countries might, but definitely we don't, despite staring at charts intently for days.

As an example, a day ago I argued with someone that the covid death rate cannot be assumed to be accurate. Today, I am arguing on the other side of that same death rate. It is definitely a factor, but what weight does it really carry? How good the medical facilities are? How old or healthy the people are in that hotspot? The government guidelines as to what is defined as a covid death?

We haven't even scratched the surface of what each of the numbers mean, so in essence we are playing number games here. But in mitigation, this lockdown is partially the problem.....idle minds and all of that
 
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