50% of South African renewable projects not producing electricity

[Pak Fa Fui]

It's fak ma pooey, he has a reputation of trolling, and will defend the most ludicrous ideas for months on end, despite clear evidence.
View attachment 1563456
Best to ignore.

You are in the solar industry, your opinions suit your own needs

 

[RonSwanson]

We would have 7% GDP growth like all the countries around us if there was no BEE.

Thank you Meatloaf.

Well. That argument can go both ways.

pretty sure we have

The videos you linked last time were IIRC an American economist ranting about affirmative action that I wasn't terribly interested in. These are long-winded and again not terribly interesting, so I'm sorry but I'm not going to watch them. If I need the opinion of an expert I'll ask @pinball wizard.

Look, I know you hate BEE. I'm not a big fan of it myself. But we can't just go blaming that for all the nation's problems because most of them are fairly complex and have a multitude of causes.

Here's something from the article for instance:


Let's have a look:
COVID-19 - you can blame the Chinese if you really want, not BEE.
Russia / Ukraine - Also, not really BEE to blame.
Inflexible procurement policies of government - Nope, not BEE either. The government were voted in, so democracy at work. Not BEE.

If a world-class, educated and decorated man like Thomas Sowell irks you, then you have other problems, and I am not a psychoanalyst nor therapist. One day, when you are big better, and you have bothered to study the subject, we could maybe have a discussion on economics . Right now, it's clearly past your bedtime.

 

[newby_investor]

If a world-class, educated and decorated man like Thomas Sowell irks you, then you have other problems, and I am not a psychoanalyst nor therapist.

Mr Sowell doesn't necessarily irk me, I have no opinion on his credentials. I just don't see that referencing his works has much relevance to the discussion. What irks me is the knee-jerk impulse to fixate on one single thing and blame it for every problem.

If the headline had read something like "Eskom lacks critically skilled people to fix its power stations" or "Eskom can't figure out how to add more transmission capacity to the grid" then I'd be singing from the same hymn sheet as you, blaming BEE for that.

One day, when you are big better, and you have bothered to study the subject, we could maybe have a discussion on economics . Right now, it's clearly past your bedtime.

That's quite some debate skill that you've got there. You're this close to convincing me. Just one more infantile jab and you'd probably have changed my mind.

 

[Pak Fa Fui]

Umm the map literally shows you each country and its share of renewables?

View attachment 1563390


But instead of accepting you're wrong you went and found some fact that you think casts doubt. The playback of the Russian bot and cigarette companies.

Keep lying to yourself that renewables don't work, but don't try to hold back the rest of the world with your out of date opinion.

So did you see how they use their hydro dam as a cover for solar under a renewables agenda

 

[richjdavies]

So did you see how they use their hydro dam as a cover for solar under a renewables agenda

Austria fair enough.

Now do Germany...


And Denmark


If its possible... then its not impossible is it! Its fine to admit you were wrong I won't judge. I still think PCs are okay, but I admit now that you can do work on a laptop... life changes, so should opinions

And SA has pumped hydro like you're seeing in some of those other countries.

 

[richjdavies]

Ooh this one is even nicer!

Live 24/7 CO₂ emissions of electricity consumption

Electricity Maps is a live 24/7 visualization of where your electricity comes from and how much CO2 was emitted to produce it.

app.electricitymaps.com

When you zoom in you'll notice counties / zones that have gone very far (say South Australia) etc are generally very heavily into wind.

SA hasn't even started off shore wind yet and drags it's heels on all the projects already tendered through REIPP.

 

[RonSwanson]

Mr Sowell doesn't necessarily irk me, I have no opinion on his credentials. I just don't see that referencing his works has much relevance to the discussion. What irks me is the knee-jerk impulse to fixate on one single thing and blame it for every problem.

75% of this country's problems would not exist if there was economic growth, BEE, Transformation and AA are preventing it. There, I have spoonfed you like a baby, want me to burp you too?

You ask a question, I give a reasonable response, and you don't like my response. So move on then, find your own way forward, and fight that which you believe is the enemy. Don't be angry at me, I never introduced BEE, AA and Transformation. Take the fight to those idiots who want it and who keep voting for it.

If the headline had read something like "Eskom lacks critically skilled people to fix its power stations" or "Eskom can't figure out how to add more transmission capacity to the grid" then I'd be singing from the same hymn sheet as you, blaming BEE for that.

Umm, they do. But instead of joining in the chorus, you prefer to argue on economics, and you sing false because you clearly don't know the song.

I don't owe you an education, you need to get that yourself. I gave you guidance and pointers, so it's now up to you, if you lack the courage to pick it up and run with it, I have nothing more to give you.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯​

I am not going to breastfeed you, or let you suck my blood. Find a wokist leftwing surrogate who is riddled with "white guilt", maybe they will spoon or breastfeed you.

That's quite some debate skill that you've got there. You're this close to convincing me. Just one more infantile jab and you'd probably have changed my mind.

I don't suffer fools. Neither do I suffer big babies who demand to be spoonfed all the time. Do your own research, come to your own conclusions (and hopefully your senses). I don't owe you anything. If you don't like what I say, then please put me on ignore. I have now wasted enough of my time and energy on you.

 

[RonSwanson]

You are in the solar industry, your opinions suit your own needs

 

[newby_investor]

75% of this country's problems would not exist if there was economic growth, BEE, Transformation and AA are preventing it.

While I might quibble with your specific percentage, I think you are right in principle here.
Where I disagree is that I don't think this specific issue (i.e. 50% of South African renewable projects not producing electricity) is directly linked to a lack of economic growth.

From TFA:

The consortium blames rising interest rates, costs of renewable technologies, and declining production of materials used to construct the plants for distorting its calculations.

These are issues that are being faced globally at the moment, even countries with high economic growth have rising borrowing costs and supply-chain issues which are taking much longer than expected to resolve.

Don't be angry at me, I never introduced BEE, AA and Transformation. Take the fight to those idiots who want it and who keep voting for it.

I'm not angry with you, I'm debating you. And believe me I am (trying to) take the fight to those idiots. I'm a member of the IRR and OUTA. (Or supporter or whatever it is the term is. I pay my dues and I subscribe to all the podcasts.)

Umm, they do. But instead of joining in the chorus, you prefer to argue on economics,

You made the fight about economics by insisting that BEE is the problem in this specific thread.

I asked you to back up that assertion and instead of doing so, you referred me to some economics lectures (which I'm sure are very interesting but I doubt are relevant to the topic) and the same general sort of "BEE bad mkay" which you have told me previously. (Which to be clear, I am not disagreeing with - I also think "BEE bad", I just don't think that it's correct to argue that it's a contributing factor in this issue.)

I pointed out in my previous post that the challenges outlined in this article preventing renewable energy projects from coming on line in time and on budget are challenges being experienced globally, even by very developed countries.

So at this point it could be pointed out that countries such as the US are weathering the current economic storms far better than we are due to their large wealth reserves. I'll concede that if we had more economic growth we could compete on slightly more even terms. I say slightly more even because the US accounts for more than 25% of the global economy *just by itself*, so even if our economy had functioned perfectly since 1994 with no BEE in sight, we'd still struggle relative to the world's more advanced economies during these recent economic crises.

I don't owe you an education, you need to get that yourself. I gave you guidance and pointers, so it's now up to you, if you lack the courage to pick it up and run with it, I have nothing more to give you.
...
I don't suffer fools. Neither do I suffer big babies who demand to be spoonfed all the time. Do your own research, come to your own conclusions (and hopefully your senses). I don't owe you anything. If you don't like what I say, then please put me on ignore. I have now wasted enough of my time and energy on you.

So, a few things. I'm not demanding to be spoonfed, I'm disagreeing with you and trying to engage in debate.
It's pretty patronising to insist that someone who comes to different conclusions than you do lacks education or courage. I generally don't use the ignore function because I believe that exchange of ideas is important and I have often learned things from people that disagree with me, even if I ultimately don't change my mind I often end up seeing the issue with more nuance.

Look if you don't use MyBB forum the same way I do then sure, I'll just ignore you whenever I see the topic come up. Trolling ANC supporters is OK by me. But if we're actually interested in the exchange of ideas then this is not how to go about it.

 

[Benedict A55h0le]

While I might quibble with your specific percentage, I think you are right in principle here.
Where I disagree is that I don't think this specific issue (i.e. 50% of South African renewable projects not producing electricity) is directly linked to a lack of economic growth.

From TFA:


These are issues that are being faced globally at the moment, even countries with high economic growth have rising borrowing costs and supply-chain issues which are taking much longer than expected to resolve.



I'm not angry with you, I'm debating you. And believe me I am (trying to) take the fight to those idiots. I'm a member of the IRR and OUTA. (Or supporter or whatever it is the term is. I pay my dues and I subscribe to all the podcasts.)


You made the fight about economics by insisting that BEE is the problem in this specific thread.

I asked you to back up that assertion and instead of doing so, you referred me to some economics lectures (which I'm sure are very interesting but I doubt are relevant to the topic) and the same general sort of "BEE bad mkay" which you have told me previously. (Which to be clear, I am not disagreeing with - I also think "BEE bad", I just don't think that it's correct to argue that it's a contributing factor in this issue.)

I pointed out in my previous post that the challenges outlined in this article preventing renewable energy projects from coming on line in time and on budget are challenges being experienced globally, even by very developed countries.

So at this point it could be pointed out that countries such as the US are weathering the current economic storms far better than we are due to their large wealth reserves. I'll concede that if we had more economic growth we could compete on slightly more even terms. I say slightly more even because the US accounts for more than 25% of the global economy *just by itself*, so even if our economy had functioned perfectly since 1994 with no BEE in sight, we'd still struggle relative to the world's more advanced economies during these recent economic crises.


So, a few things. I'm not demanding to be spoonfed, I'm disagreeing with you and trying to engage in debate.
It's pretty patronising to insist that someone who comes to different conclusions than you do lacks education or courage. I generally don't use the ignore function because I believe that exchange of ideas is important and I have often learned things from people that disagree with me, even if I ultimately don't change my mind I often end up seeing the issue with more nuance.

Look if you don't use MyBB forum the same way I do then sure, I'll just ignore you whenever I see the topic come up. Trolling ANC supporters is OK by me. But if we're actually interested in the exchange of ideas then this is not how to go about it.

 

[Botha22]

Do people read the articles before rushing to comment? In summary companies submitted their bids with low prices (razor thin margins). Now that interest rates and other costs are rising the projects are no longer viable.

 

[wingnut771]

Austria fair enough.

Now do Germany...
View attachment 1563502

And Denmark
View attachment 1563504

If its possible... then its not impossible is it! Its fine to admit you were wrong I won't judge. I still think PCs are okay, but I admit now that you can do work on a laptop... life changes, so should opinions

And SA has pumped hydro like you're seeing in some of those other countries.

Now do one over 6 months and not 1 day.

 

[wingnut771]

Ooh this one is even nicer!

Live 24/7 CO₂ emissions of electricity consumption

Electricity Maps is a live 24/7 visualization of where your electricity comes from and how much CO2 was emitted to produce it.

app.electricitymaps.com

When you zoom in you'll notice counties / zones that have gone very far (say South Australia) etc are generally very heavily into wind.

SA hasn't even started off shore wind yet and drags it's heels on all the projects already tendered through REIPP.

View attachment 1563508

Look at all those arrows:

 

[RonSwanson]

Do people read the articles before rushing to comment? In summary companies submitted their bids with low prices (razor thin margins). Now that interest rates and other costs are rising the projects are no longer viable.

Where have you ever seen a BEE bid where the BEE component is razor thin?

Gwede did not get that size stomach from eating carpaccio.

 

[richjdavies]

Look at all those arrows:
View attachment 1563560

Yes. Now put South Agrica on top of that map... what you are seeing is like imports and exports between provinces. SA is much bigger than every country there with huge amounts of very windy coast line and double the solar resource.

The problem isn't the technology it is the will of government and blockers (like.you) in the population.

 

[newby_investor]

Where have you ever seen a BEE bid where the BEE component is razor thin?

Have you ever been involved in any public procurement?
I have. This is not how it works.

(1) Bidders are evaluated on the technical merits of whether or not the proposed solution meets the requirements laid out. Technical evaluators can't see the pricing or BEE credentials of the submissions.
(2) Separately, bidders are evaluated by financial people to see whether the business is a going concern and evaluated as to whether they're capable of doing the work. Usually they are supposed to include references from past customers for similar work.
(3) Bidders who pass the above two rounds are then ordered in terms of price and BEE credentials. I forget the exact rules now but the final "score" is typically something like 80% price, 20% BEE score (companies have a Level 1, Level 2, etc. certification depending on various factors like ownership, corporate social responsibility, etc.). The bidder with the best score gets the contract. Even then not just by default, there's often a little back-and-forth negotiation of specific terms.

Obviously the above is not true when kickbacks are paid and tenders are irregularly awarded, but corruption in public procurement happens the world over even in countries where there is no BEE so I don't really want to be drawn into that argument again.

The customer (i.e. the state or public entity doing the procurement) never sees "margins" because the bidders obviously don't tell you what their cost prices are. As far as I'm aware that kind of information is typically not made public by any business in any setting. Sometimes you can find it out if you have insider knowledge but this is the exception more than the rule - looking up list price of whatever they're selling doesn't help because they'll have negotiated prices with OEMs, and with a complex project like the ones referred to here (i.e. renewable energy) there will be many kinds of costs, not just purchase of equipment.

In most cases that I've seen the bidder will have clauses saying that prices are calculated with the assumption of a certain ZAR/USD exchange rate, and there'll be a certain percentage buffer around that that the price could change if there are currency fluctuations between when the bid is submitted and when it's accepted. It often takes a *long time* to evaluate these kinds of things*. So it is quite possible that they've tried to price competitively in order to win the bid (this is good old fashioned capitalism at work) but circumstances have changed in the intervening months (and in these cases probably years) such that their original calculations aren't valid anymore.

* To give you an example, we've just managed to award a tender now last month which was advertised in October, and it wasn't even that large - R30M or so. And for what it's worth, the winning bidder was BEE-level 2, there were level 1 (the highest) bidders but their prices were so much higher than the winning bidder that even the 20% allocated to BEE credits didn't help them win the bid.

Gwede did not get that size stomach from eating carpaccio.

Gwede has been paid by the public purse for years because he's been an MP and cabinet minister, and before then he was involved in the ANC / SACP and the trade unions. He doesn't need BEE in order to pad his waistline.

There are BEE fat cats, but I'm not sure that he's one of them. He may well have been paid kickbacks but I can't recall even accusations of that in his specific case.

 

[RonSwanson]

you referred me to some economics lectures (which I'm sure are very interesting but I doubt are relevant to the topic

And you know that because you refuse to watch them. Do you see the irony?

an American economist ranting about affirmative action that I wasn't terribly interested in. These are long-winded and again not terribly interesting, so I'm sorry but I'm not going to watch them. If I need the opinion of an expert I'll ask @TheGrumpyOldMan.

But if we're actually interested in the exchange of ideas

Sure, go and exchange ideas with your peers. When you actually develop some good ideas, that have a basis or grounding in economics (the subject), ping me.

I'm disagreeing with you and trying to engage in debate

You are wasting my time. Get an education first.

 

[RonSwanson]

Have you ever been involved in any public procurement?
I have. This is not how it works.

(1) Bidders are evaluated on the technical merits of whether or not the proposed solution meets the requirements laid out. Technical evaluators can't see the pricing or BEE credentials of the submissions.
(2) Separately, bidders are evaluated by financial people to see whether the business is a going concern and evaluated as to whether they're capable of doing the work. Usually they are supposed to include references from past customers for similar work.
(3) Bidders who pass the above two rounds are then ordered in terms of price and BEE credentials. I forget the exact rules now but the final "score" is typically something like 80% price, 20% BEE score (companies have a Level 1, Level 2, etc. certification depending on various factors like ownership, corporate social responsibility, etc.). The bidder with the best score gets the contract. Even then not just by default, there's often a little back-and-forth negotiation of specific terms.

Obviously the above is not true when kickbacks are paid and tenders are irregularly awarded, but corruption in public procurement happens the world over even in countries where there is no BEE so I don't really want to be drawn into that argument again.

The customer (i.e. the state or public entity doing the procurement) never sees "margins" because the bidders obviously don't tell you what their cost prices are. As far as I'm aware that kind of information is typically not made public by any business in any setting. Sometimes you can find it out if you have insider knowledge but this is the exception more than the rule - looking up list price of whatever they're selling doesn't help because they'll have negotiated prices with OEMs, and with a complex project like the ones referred to here (i.e. renewable energy) there will be many kinds of costs, not just purchase of equipment.

In most cases that I've seen the bidder will have clauses saying that prices are calculated with the assumption of a certain ZAR/USD exchange rate, and there'll be a certain percentage buffer around that that the price could change if there are currency fluctuations between when the bid is submitted and when it's accepted. It often takes a *long time* to evaluate these kinds of things*. So it is quite possible that they've tried to price competitively in order to win the bid (this is good old fashioned capitalism at work) but circumstances have changed in the intervening months (and in these cases probably years) such that their original calculations aren't valid anymore.

* To give you an example, we've just managed to award a tender now last month which was advertised in October, and it wasn't even that large - R30M or so. And for what it's worth, the winning bidder was BEE-level 2, there were level 1 (the highest) bidders but their prices were so much higher than the winning bidder that even the 20% allocated to BEE credits didn't help them win the bid.


Gwede has been paid by the public purse for years because he's been an MP and cabinet minister, and before then he was involved in the ANC / SACP and the trade unions. He doesn't need BEE in order to pad his waistline.

There are BEE fat cats, but I'm not sure that he's one of them. He may well have been paid kickbacks but I can't recall even accusations of that in his specific case.

In my career I have been part of many BEE tenders, both on the receiving as well a the bidding end, and I have interviewed countless AA positions.
Kak is kak, even when there's a whole lot of it (with apologies to chatGpt).

On ignore you go.

 

[newby_investor]

On ignore you go.

Honestly at this point, fine by me. Clearly disagreeing with you means that I'm uneducated and IMO that's the height of hubris. At this point there's no reason to talk further because you're just ignoring everything that I say.

 

[itareanlnotani]

For what its worth +-50% of generation doesn't work at the moment either. EAF is in the 50's at the moment (54.08% for the first 28 weeks of the year).


Ref: https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/art...eskom-burns-through-its-emergency-use-diesel/