A R74 billion ‘green’ plan has hit the wall of South African politics

rvZA

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Envoys from nations including the US, Britain and Germany met government ministers in Pretoria last month with the $5 billion package to hammer out a deal that could be announced at the upcoming COP26 global climate conference on ending the use of coal.

But Mantashe didn’t turn up.

If your country is reliant on getting foreign money this way, then it might just as well forget about it. How do they expect any Western country to give them $1 when things like this happen?

SA will stick to coal. It is too important in many ways. The world can continue with their save the environment drives, SA will not care too much about it.
 

AstroTurf

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There are better and more environmentally friendly uses for coal than just burning it...

The envoys should be looking at ways to keep the coal mines alive but for things like petroleum, methanol, gas, cement, steel etcetc.

Imagine all the tenders...
 

C4Cat

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What’s in it for them? (US, Germany, Britain)
Aside from moving the world towards dealing with climate change and avoiding climate disaster, these are mostly loans which will need to be paid back. South Africa is currently top ranking on the G20 list for countries most reliant on coal-fired power by quite a large margin.
 

Ghost64

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Aside from moving the world towards dealing with climate change and avoiding climate disaster, these are mostly loans which will need to be paid back. South Africa is currently top ranking on the G20 list for countries most reliant on coal-fired power by quite a large margin.
Ye but we all the way down here in the south, the little pollution we make doesn’t affect anyone or anything or the northern countries.
Also they pushing too hard on this... don’t know what to make of it...
 

Johnatan56

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Aside from moving the world towards dealing with climate change and avoiding climate disaster, these are mostly loans which will need to be paid back. South Africa is currently top ranking on the G20 list for countries most reliant on coal-fired power by quite a large margin.
Erm, those loans are usually linked to either no interest or dollar repo rate. They're not meant to make money.
Ye but we all the way down here in the south, the little pollution we make doesn’t affect anyone or anything or the northern countries.
Also they pushing too hard on this... don’t know what to make of it...
They get the world to produce less CO2, SO2, NO2 and methane. Pollution affects the entire world, not just isolated areas.
Also, South Africa is not just "little" pollution:
INTRODUCTION
It is estimated that ambient PM2.5 air pollution caused 3.4 million deaths worldwide in 2017 and over 20,000
in SA every year1. SO2 and NOx emissions from the burning of coal and oil are the key sources of this pollution.
The largest concentration of emitters in Africa is the Highveld/Mpumalanga region in South Africa (SA), just
100-200 km from the Gauteng City Region, the largest population center in SA, implying the risk of major
public health damage.
A Greenpeace ranking based on three months of data, from June to August 2018, had found that Mpumalanga
had the highest atmospheric NO2 level in the world over this period, making it one of the worst hotspots of
NOx emissions in the world. After the publication of this ranking, a full year of NO2 data, from February 2018
onwards, has become available, as ESA has processed and released data retrieved before June.
Based on a similar approach Greenpeace has for the first time also identified and ranked SO2 hotspots
globally.

Above, and not just South Africa, they're trying to help all countries across the world transition.
 

Ghost64

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Erm, those loans are usually linked to either no interest or dollar repo rate. They're not meant to make money.

They get the world to produce less CO2, SO2, NO2 and methane. Pollution affects the entire world, not just isolated areas.
Also, South Africa is not just "little" pollution:


Above, and not just South Africa, they're trying to help all countries across the world transition.
What in your opinion peaked our(the worlds) N02, C02, S02 levels in recent years?
 

Johnatan56

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What in your opinion peaked our(the worlds) N02, C02, S02 levels in recent years?
Not opinion, fact, it's coal...
(Bloomberg) — The level of sulfur dioxide emissions in the Kriel area in Mpumalanga province only lags the Norilsk Nickel metal complex in the Russian town of Norilsk, the environmental group said in a statement, citing 2018 data from NASA satellites. The province is home to most of Eskom’s 15 coal-fired power plants as well as coal-to-fuel plants owned by Sasol Ltd., South Africa’s biggest company by revenue.
[...]
Eskom accounts for 42% of South Africa’s greenhouse gases, while Sasol emits 11% of the total, the companies have said.
Note that Norlisk "beats" South Africa as highest as Bloomberg/Greenpeace separated it based on each town, and usually a town of workers pops up next to coal stations. The highest concentration for a larger area are those coal mines.

You should already know this tbh, was huge on the news etc. two years ago and keeps getting mentioned.
 

Ghost64

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Not opinion, fact, it's coal...

Note that Norlisk "beats" South Africa as highest as Bloomberg/Greenpeace separated it based on each town, and usually a town of workers pops up next to coal stations. The highest concentration for a larger area are those coal mines.

You should already know this tbh, was huge on the news etc. two years ago and keeps getting mentioned.
That was 1 year and was the start of rolling black outs. It’s not a consistent representation of our national emissions. However it’s not to say there won’t be other years.

The gradient used to find the source of emissions is not a direct link to overall emissions. The wind blows as they say. Our footprint is ridiculously tiny. More than 75% of our borders are coastal with no land area mass even close to us apart from tiny Madagascar.
Our emissions go to sea basically.

In Europe it’s a totally different smokehouse. During the first two industrial revolutions, their emissions caused havoc in the northern hemisphere and even down to countries like Ethiopia.
On the European scale of emissions we look worse than we are. In the grand scheme of emissions and its movements around the planet, it’s minuscule at best. We good basically.

While we could do more, there’s no urgency. We can lag behind quite easily. The only need to up our game is for the changes the northern hemisphere will bestow on us. The markets are changing, so from an economic POV, yes we should show more intent.

So far we’ve had energy investments of 10s of billions from countries like Saudi, Russia and China. They’re also not once off investments. So is the push from the US, UK and Germany purely on needs based or is it political..? What’s the deal?
 

porchrat

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Ye but we all the way down here in the south, the little pollution we make doesn’t affect anyone or anything or the northern countries.
Also they pushing too hard on this... don’t know what to make of it...
The pollution we produce impacts the entire planet I'm afraid.

Having said that you're right about our tiny bit of pollution meaning next to nothing on a global scale.
 

Johnatan56

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That was 1 year and was the start of rolling black outs. It’s not a consistent representation of our national emissions. However it’s not to say there won’t be other years.
Sorry, what? What does that have to do with anything, most of those coal plants are still operating, Eskom is still breaking a lot of rules in regards to emissions standards./
The gradient used to find the source of emissions is not a direct link to overall emissions. The wind blows as they say. Our footprint is ridiculously tiny. More than 75% of our borders are coastal with no land area mass even close to us apart from tiny Madagascar.
Our emissions go to sea basically.
You still produce those emissions, they are still affecting the entire world, they don't just go "oh, we got blown into the atlantic, lets all stick in this little spot now and never bother the rest of the world or destroy the ozone layer/increase heat trapping", it's one giant cycle. You seem quite ignorant on what climate change actually is.

While we could do more, there’s no urgency. We can lag behind quite easily. The only need to up our game is for the changes the northern hemisphere will bestow on us. The markets are changing, so from an economic POV, yes we should show more intent.
It is actually urgent based on climate change trend. You're basically saying South Africa should go "f the rest of the world" and keep producing it.
So far we’ve had energy investments of 10s of billions from countries like Saudi, Russia and China. They’re also not once off investments. So is the push from the US, UK and Germany purely on needs based or is it political..? What’s the deal?
You have no clue what you're talking about. World bank loans like for Medupi and Kusile had certain conditions like flue-gas desulfurisation installations, which they failed to do, that was a $3.75bn loan with very low interest rates, those loans are designed to be as low interest as possible to help economies invest in infrastructure.

Germany invested quite a bit in South Africa in regards to renewables, they just do it through organizations like SEFA: https://www.powerengineeringint.com...und-to-expand-renewable-energy-across-africa/
 

Ghost64

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Sorry, what? What does that have to do with anything, most of those coal plants are still operating, Eskom is still breaking a lot of rules in regards to emissions standards./

You still produce those emissions, they are still affecting the entire world, they don't just go "oh, we got blown into the atlantic, lets all stick in this little spot now and never bother the rest of the world or destroy the ozone layer/increase heat trapping", it's one giant cycle. You seem quite ignorant on what climate change actually is.


It is actually urgent based on climate change trend. You're basically saying South Africa should go "f the rest of the world" and keep producing it.

You have no clue what you're talking about. World bank loans like for Medupi and Kusile had certain conditions like flue-gas desulfurisation installations, which they failed to do, that was a $3.75bn loan with very low interest rates, those loans are designed to be as low interest as possible to help economies invest in infrastructure.

Germany invested quite a bit in South Africa in regards to renewables, they just do it through organizations like SEFA: https://www.powerengineeringint.com...und-to-expand-renewable-energy-across-africa/
Volcanos produce the exact composition of gasses and more when compared to us burning coal.
I don’t buy into the extinction rebellion propaganda machine. There is no doom and gloom coming. Yes we can do better but let’s not fall into this trap of guilt and urgency.

The US and coalition forces have been dropping tons of bombs on the other side of the equator. What gasses did those things release into the atmosphere? What was the damage of 20 years of war that they caused? Al Gore global warming initiative, later changed to climate change coz the terminology is misleading started the same time Bush and Co started their bombing.
It’s a war on fossil fuels. So while there is a guilt drive changing the developed world they have a point. Fossil fuels will dry up, but more worrying, they will be held hostage by oil rich nations.

So renewable energy needs a kick start, fair enough. But what’s driving what? Is there doom and gloom on the horizon, no. Do we need renewable energy and a lifestyle change sooner rather than later, yes. Instill the fear into the minds of the younger population and then drive innovation. Let’s also tax and fine nations who don’t comply.

This push from the US and Brits is politics more than anything else.
We can always keep our coal usage but filter out the worst of the gasses by extraction and other innovative ideas. Dubai and neighboring countries are one of the highest collectors of C02, they literally sucking it out of the air and collecting it. I’m sure we can rather reduce emissions in other ways significantly cheaper and keep our coal burning.

Zuma should have built that damn nuclear power station in 2012.
 

Johnatan56

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Volcanos produce the exact composition of gasses and more when compared to us burning coal.
Ah, so because a volcano can produce gasses, we should also burn coal?
So because your neighbor went and stabbed someone, you should as well?
That whataboutism is just stupid.
A quick Google:
Human activities emit 60 or more times the amount of carbon dioxide released by volcanoes each year. Large, violent eruptions may match the rate of human emissions for the few hours that they last, but they are too rare and fleeting to rival humanity’s annual emissions. In fact, several individual U.S. states emit more carbon dioxide in a year than all the volcanoes on the planet combined do.
I don’t buy into the extinction rebellion propaganda machine. There is no doom and gloom coming. Yes we can do better but let’s not fall into this trap of guilt and urgency.
Have you been to those coal stations in Mpumalanga?
The consequences are long lasting and irreversible if continued, breaking the cycle would do a lot of harm vs just sorting out the issues now.
The US and coalition forces have been dropping tons of bombs on the other side of the equator. What gasses did those things release into the atmosphere? What was the damage of 20 years of war that they caused? Al Gore global warming initiative, later changed to climate change coz the terminology is misleading started the same time Bush and Co started their bombing.
Another whataboutism argument. Doesn't detract from coal plants being a huge issue and that South Africa should be moving to renewables (besides it being cheaper).
It’s a war on fossil fuels. So while there is a guilt drive changing the developed world they have a point. Fossil fuels will dry up, but more worrying, they will be held hostage by oil rich nations.
That's a pretty dumb argument, even those oil rich nations are moving to renewables.
You could argue then that South Africa should be one of those who would be the fastest to try and move in that direction since lots of sun, wind, and LNG just to the north in Mozambique.
So renewable energy needs a kick start, fair enough. But what’s driving what? Is there doom and gloom on the horizon, no. Do we need renewable energy and a lifestyle change sooner rather than later, yes. Instill the fear into the minds of the younger population and then drive innovation. Let’s also tax and fine nations who don’t comply.
You do know that renwables are the cheapest power generation source, right? What exactly are you arguing?
This push from the US and Brits is politics more than anything else.
Yes and no, climate change has become quite a political issue, e.g. Germany due to the recent unprecedented floods is now intensifying its efforts even more.
We can always keep our coal usage but filter out the worst of the gasses by extraction and other innovative ideas. Dubai and neighboring countries are one of the highest collectors of C02, they literally sucking it out of the air and collecting it. I’m sure we can rather reduce emissions in other ways significantly cheaper and keep our coal burning.
I linked the WMF loan that Eskom failed to adhere to, namely to install filters....
Coal is becoming more and more expensive and it makes no sense to add more of it to the grid, renewable is cheaper with less environmental impact.
Zuma should have built that damn nuclear power station in 2012.
That probably summarizes how lacking you are in understanding any of this.
Nuclear is generally the most expensive source of power as it requires huge capital with most nuclear power stations in the world having huge cost overruns and delays, you're looking at decades of construction. You're also taking the risk of what happens if something goes wrong, the area would be off-limits for decades to centuries depending on the severity. Nuclear is the safest/cleanest energy source until something goes wrong, then it is by far the worst. CSP is slightly cheaper than nuclear, and in South Africa with the Kalahari etc., it would probably be even more reliable and new innovations are constantly being made, e.g. Dubai manged a 15 hour storage CSP, EV1 "energy vault" for storage, etc.

But yes, lock it in and spend at least 10 years to build a nuclear plant that will probably take a good 20 at least with money that South Africa doesn't have and take a loan it can't repay on top of the debt that is already threatening to cripple the entire country. Good idea.
 

Ghost64

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Ah, so because a volcano can produce gasses, we should also burn coal?
So because your neighbor went and stabbed someone, you should as well?
That whataboutism is just stupid.
A quick Google:


Have you been to those coal stations in Mpumalanga?
The consequences are long lasting and irreversible if continued, breaking the cycle would do a lot of harm vs just sorting out the issues now.

Another whataboutism argument. Doesn't detract from coal plants being a huge issue and that South Africa should be moving to renewables (besides it being cheaper).

That's a pretty dumb argument, even those oil rich nations are moving to renewables.
You could argue then that South Africa should be one of those who would be the fastest to try and move in that direction since lots of sun, wind, and LNG just to the north in Mozambique.

You do know that renwables are the cheapest power generation source, right? What exactly are you arguing?

Yes and no, climate change has become quite a political issue, e.g. Germany due to the recent unprecedented floods is now intensifying its efforts even more.

I linked the WMF loan that Eskom failed to adhere to, namely to install filters....
Coal is becoming more and more expensive and it makes no sense to add more of it to the grid, renewable is cheaper with less environmental impact.

That probably summarizes how lacking you are in understanding any of this.
Nuclear is generally the most expensive source of power as it requires huge capital with most nuclear power stations in the world having huge cost overruns and delays, you're looking at decades of construction. You're also taking the risk of what happens if something goes wrong, the area would be off-limits for decades to centuries depending on the severity. Nuclear is the safest/cleanest energy source until something goes wrong, then it is by far the worst. CSP is slightly cheaper than nuclear, and in South Africa with the Kalahari etc., it would probably be even more reliable and new innovations are constantly being made, e.g. Dubai manged a 15 hour storage CSP, EV1 "energy vault" for storage, etc.

But yes, lock it in and spend at least 10 years to build a nuclear plant that will probably take a good 20 at least with money that South Africa doesn't have and take a loan it can't repay on top of the debt that is already threatening to cripple the entire country. Good idea.
How much investment needed for wind and solar farms to power JHB? What the ROI on that if we cap the utility bill with a 50% mark up of current prices?
It’s 50 - 60 years if you not in the mood to calculate yourself.
Nuclear is still the best option for the next 5 years, if we don’t have nuclear of the ground by 2025/6, we stuffed.
The current pandemic though can be used to drive out populations from the cities. Thus evening out the grid dependency and possibly privatizing renewable energy on towns outside urban areas.

How’s parts of Europe doing with their wind farms btw?
 

C4Cat

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So is the push from the US, UK and Germany purely on needs based or is it political..? What’s the deal?
Maybe they just want to sell us all the latest in renewable technology so the loan US the money towards buying the tech, from them and then hope we pay them back
 
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