A R74 billion ‘green’ plan has hit the wall of South African politics

[Johnatan56]

It’s 50 - 60 years if you not in the mood to calculate yourself.

Where did you get that figure? It's definitely wrong.

How much investment needed for wind and solar farms to power JHB? What the ROI on that if we cap the utility bill with a 50% mark up of current prices?

Why the mark-up?

Nuclear is still the best option for the next 5 years, if we don’t have nuclear of the ground by 2025/6, we stuffed.

You won't build nuclear within 4 years, I linked you the median time to build nuclear. That's besides you ignoring everything else, the cost and repercussions.

The current pandemic though can be used to drive out populations from the cities. Thus evening out the grid dependency and possibly privatizing renewable energy on towns outside urban areas.

No, you'll see the exact opposite as people will head to cities for jobs. That's what happens for everyone developed economy.

How’s parts of Europe doing with their wind farms btw?

Why only wind? That's only part of the equation, a balance is what is needed, the same as one shouldn't only have coal, or only nuclear.

In general, good:

All electricity in Austria's largest state now produced from renewables

Hydroelectric power, wind energy, biomass and solar provide 100% of electricity for 1.65 million people

www.theguardian.com

The problem is the slow transition, e.g. Germany transmissions lines that got held up and are ~4 years behind schedule so they can't bring power from the north to the south. That's why the high electricity cost, 1/3 is to build up their grid system.

Maybe they just want to sell us all the latest in renewable technology so the loan US the money towards buying the tech, from them and then hope we pay them back

Well South Africa would probably use a mix of lots of different companies, and there are usually requirements in regards to local manufacturing. If South Africa did coal, you'd probably find US/EU influence on it as well. That's a strawman argument.

I'm done with this discussion, Ghost seems like an alt account of someone that got banned, and C4Cat, you just like crying capitalism is terrible, so no point in this.

 

[C4Cat]

C4Cat, you just like crying capitalism is terrible, so no point in this.

Wow, that's a bit harsh, especially since I never said capitalism is terrible, in this discussion, or even implied it. Are you sure you're not fighting with yourself here? My post wasn't even an argument, it was just simple speculation. @Ghost64 asked a reasonable question and you seem deeply offended by it, I've no idea why

 

[Johnatan56]

Wow, that's a bit harsh, especially since I never said capitalism is terrible, in this discussion, or even implied it. Are you sure you're not fighting with yourself here?

No, just know you and ForceFate's posts in other threads. Anyways, I'm out.

 

[ToxicBunny]

How much investment needed for wind and solar farms to power JHB? What the ROI on that if we cap the utility bill with a 50% mark up of current prices?
It’s 50 - 60 years if you not in the mood to calculate yourself.
Nuclear is still the best option for the next 5 years, if we don’t have nuclear of the ground by 2025/6, we stuffed.
The current pandemic though can be used to drive out populations from the cities. Thus evening out the grid dependency and possibly privatizing renewable energy on towns outside urban areas.

How’s parts of Europe doing with their wind farms btw?

Then we're stuffed... Nuclear is a minimum 10 Yr build after they turn the sod.. So at least 15 years away if absolutely nothing goes wrong.

But the rest of your post is also full of monumentally fscking stupid and wrong but that's no surprise.

 

[Ghost64]

Where did you get that figure? It's definitely wrong.

Why the mark-up?

You won't build nuclear within 4 years, I linked you the median time to build nuclear. That's besides you ignoring everything else, the cost and repercussions.

No, you'll see the exact opposite as people will head to cities for jobs. That's what happens for everyone developed economy.

Why only wind? That's only part of the equation, a balance is what is needed, the same as one shouldn't only have coal, or only nuclear.

In general, good:

All electricity in Austria's largest state now produced from renewables

Hydroelectric power, wind energy, biomass and solar provide 100% of electricity for 1.65 million people

www.theguardian.com

The problem is the slow transition, e.g. Germany transmissions lines that got held up and are ~4 years behind schedule so they can't bring power from the north to the south. That's why the high electricity cost, 1/3 is to build up their grid system.

Well South Africa would probably use a mix of lots of different companies, and there are usually requirements in regards to local manufacturing. If South Africa did coal, you'd probably find US/EU influence on it as well. That's a strawman argument.

I'm done with this discussion, Ghost seems like an alt account of someone that got banned, and C4Cat, you just like crying capitalism is terrible, so no point in this.

You’re not wrong, it’s the application that’s misguided.
The urgency is in the northern hemisphere. We’re ok down here.
We can to some extent afford to delay spending and maximizing investment into what is still very old technology. Windmills and solar panels, we been having it.
There’s been no advancement in renewable energy tech, it’s still the same concept.

Tesla are still using laptop batteries from 2005 for their cars. They apparently trying iron instead of lithium or cobalt now, trying to fix something from 50 years ago. They’ve reached the ceiling with batteries. Same with cellphones. It’s the same lithium batteries from 2008. The only advancement has been in back light tech and the software tweaks to manage it.

Germany’s vision is different to ours, also their hybrid state funded companies like Bosch and Schneider are leading the way in renewable energy and smart town planning.

Until there’s been revolutionary advancement that’s worth throwing capex into, we should hold on and not make any rash silly decisions.

You don’t have to reply, cheers.

 

[The Trutherizer]

With uncle Gwede calling the shots in this regard, SA is eminently likely to be late to the party.
I fully expect any attempt at a clean energy transition to mirror the spectrum cadenza. Forever mired in some contrivance.
And that at some point other nations will start imposing trade sanctions upon us - For no other reason than that they need to comply with their own emissions regulations.
Foreign owned factories in SA will go bye-bye. Cars will be first - Because what good is an EV manufactured using SA's dirty energy?
Steel, Aluminium, (we still have smelters? not sure) ores - All will be in the crosshairs as businesses abroad start coming under more regulatory scrutiny for their emissions along the entire production pipeline, including where they source commodities from.
Of course Mantashe probably still believes, heart and soul, that SA can be an independent bastion of Leninism. Some anachronistic utopia of f**k_you_enemies_of_the_USSR.

 

[Ghost64]

With uncle Gwede calling the shots in this regard, SA is eminently likely to be late to the party.
I fully expect any attempt at a clean energy transition to mirror the spectrum cadenza. Forever mired in some contrivance.
And that at some point other nations will start imposing trade sanctions upon us - For no other reason than that they need to comply with their own emissions regulations.
Foreign owned factories in SA will go bye-bye. Cars will be first - Because what good is an EV manufactured using SA's dirty energy?
Steel, Aluminium, (we still have smelters? not sure) ores - All will be in the crosshairs as businesses abroad start coming under more regulatory scrutiny for their emissions along the entire production pipeline, including where they source commodities from.
Of course Mantashe probably still believes, heart and soul, that SA can be an independent bastion of Leninism. Some anachronistic utopia of f**k_you_enemies_of_the_USSR.

So they will resort to blackmail?

 

[The Trutherizer]

So they will resort to blackmail?

Oh sure... I don't want to go to my neighbour's house parties, because he only plays death metal non-stop at maximum volume during such events. My refusal to go to his parties is "blackmail" to get him to stop playing death metal at his parties. Nothing to do with the health of my ears, or my sanity.

Get real.

Yikes.

 

[ArmatageShanks]

We don't have time for going green, we are barely hanging on riding the prebuilt coal train. Although outdated at the time the running costs were world leading, running, tech was of yesteryear ie simplistic, easy to run and maintain, well understood, for ages 3 and up.

Uneducated Colombians kept hundreds of C-47's in the air well past their expected lifetime with no technical support from the manufacturer or industry, all by themselves with barely any resources.

We can't even burn dinosaurs in a 1890s boiler reliably.

Unless the Green solution is private and or foreign operated, It's but a pipe dream.

 

[Johnatan56]

We don't have time for going green, we are barely hanging on riding the prebuilt coal train. Although outdated at the time the running costs were world leading, running, tech was of yesteryear ie simplistic, easy to run and maintain, well understood, for ages 3 and up.

You do know solar and wind can come online in months, right? Coal is a few years building.

Uneducated Colombians kept hundreds of C-47's in the air well past their expected lifetime with no technical support from the manufacturer or industry, all by themselves with barely any resources.

Relevance.

We can't even burn dinosaurs in a 1890s boiler reliably.

So why build more coal?

Unless the Green solution is private and or foreign operated, It's but a pipe dream.

IPP is private, that's what this is all about...

 

[Bigjay84]

In other news , Merc and BMW profits are down as the cadres lose an opportunity

 

[Ghost64]

Oh sure... I don't want to go to my neighbour's house parties, because he only plays death metal non-stop at maximum volume during such events. My refusal to go to his parties is "blackmail" to get him to stop playing death metal at his parties. Nothing to do with the health of my ears, or my sanity.

Get real.

Yikes.

Errrr ye but if you cut his electricity and water supply and pay the garbage men to throw garbage on his lawn until he complies, that’s blackmail.

 

[Ghost64]

We don't have time for going green, we are barely hanging on riding the prebuilt coal train. Although outdated at the time the running costs were world leading, running, tech was of yesteryear ie simplistic, easy to run and maintain, well understood, for ages 3 and up.

Uneducated Colombians kept hundreds of C-47's in the air well past their expected lifetime with no technical support from the manufacturer or industry, all by themselves with barely any resources.

We can't even burn dinosaurs in a 1890s boiler reliably.

Unless the Green solution is private and or foreign operated, It's but a pipe dream.

Or we build a nuclear power station and then dabble in private and foreign operated gimmicks.

 

[The Trutherizer]

Errrr ye but if you cut his electricity and water supply and pay the garbage men to throw garbage on his lawn until he complies, that’s blackmail.

Not comparable. No country can expect other countries to trade with it, no questions asked. Let me be clear. You should understand. I'm not talking about official diplomatic trade sanctions here. I'm talking about companies from abroad not wanting to buy SA's products, because it would lower the sustainability credentials of their own products.
You're basically saying that a buyer choosing where they buy is tantamount to diplomatic positions. Actually your hyperbole went into overt military action territory.

 

[Ghost64]

Not comparable. No country can expect other countries to trade with it, no questions asked. Let me be clear. You should understand. I'm not talking about official diplomatic trade sanctions here. I'm talking about companies from abroad not wanting to buy SA's products, because it would lower the sustainability credentials of their own products.
You're basically saying that a buyer choosing where they buy is tantamount to diplomatic positions. Actually your hyperbole went into overt military action territory.

Oh I see now, like a BEE score on export products.

 

[ToxicBunny]

Not comparable. No country can expect other countries to trade with it, no questions asked. Let me be clear. You should understand. I'm not talking about official diplomatic trade sanctions here. I'm talking about companies from abroad not wanting to buy SA's products, because it would lower the sustainability credentials of their own products.
You're basically saying that a buyer choosing where they buy is tantamount to diplomatic positions. Actually your hyperbole went into overt military action territory.

Don't even bother trying to deal with reality here.. you will be met with bollocks and waffle in response.

 

[The Trutherizer]

Oh I see now, like a BEE score on export products.

I doubt companies in other countries will get a score which determines their eligibility for government contracts.
Most likely they will just be fined for not following the regs. Like with any other reg. Open to litigation.
You're really stretching hard to fit this into your narrative. But, I can do that too in the other direction...
-Our dirty energy industry affects we who live here severely too. In a much more direct and immediate manner than climate change even.
-Illness prevention should be high on the list of any sensible person in SA, since with things as they are, they are looking to create a local NHI.

But then... I'm not so much interested in massaging the story to fit my narrative. I'm trying to tell it like it is. The reality of the matter. Maybe you can become a citizen of one of the countries which might regulate in such a way, and then vote to prevent them. Or go there, and get into politics.

Otherwise wait 10-20 years, and join Mantashe (if he's still around) and shake your fist at the evil, evil racist counter-revolutionary West. That hates SA so much. Little difference to me.