Bitcoin Thread - 2018

Swa

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Luno currently at 8% above margin. Completely irrational as best case it's going sideways but would mostly likely come down with a long squeeze.
 

SaiyanZ

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So nothing much happened. $3980 seems to be holding for now. Though there is also a larger parallel channel which we may have touched.



Parallel channels:

 

SaiyanZ

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Finally a solid dump so closed my shorts with profit. Looking to short again from around $3900 but it might just fall from here without any bounce. It should be difficult to get above $3980 now.



Bigger picture:

 

SaiyanZ

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Yeah a rough day for crypto. I think short is still the best option. Just safest to wait for a little bounce first before shorting. Don't want to be the pleb that shorted at the 3 week low. Got my shorts waiting to fill at $3745 and $3845 but it might not go up. If it doesn't go up I won't force a trade.

Don't see it getting too much higher than that easily. Also have more orders waiting to fill at $3975, $4115 and $4395 just in case there is a green dildo but it's unlikely now. Expecting something like the below.



Shorting also seems like the most prudent way to go in this market if you want to protect your capital in USD. Just short 10% of capital at 10x leverage. If the price goes up you are still worth the same in USD. If it goes down then you have more BTC and are still worth the same in USD. Think some of the bigger players trade this way as a hedge. Just have to avoid being liquidated and take profit whenever possible.
 

SaiyanZ

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Looking at Bitfinex shorts again after a while. They've dropped a lot in the last week. So it's now much easier for the price to fall further. I'll only consider switching to the bullish side when shorts go above 35k again. It's only really above there that you'd expect there to be several large squeezes upwards in a row without too much pullback.

 
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Joined
Aug 8, 2017
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Bloody idiots on Luno again. How can you keep pushing up the price but not let it fall again. Too many people with xmas bonuses.
Id have to guestimate that more than 50% of luno market making traffic that causes the above market rates is due to traders on localbitcoins who arbitrage trade between localbitcoins and luno which is rather easy and lucrative if you want to do it for 24/7 slave labor job.

The other factor is that luno liquidity is pretty bad but other ZAR exchanges is even worse so it takes next to nothing to buy and pump the price or sell and crash the price on luno which makes me wonder why so many people even bother trading on luno.

I only use luno cause their withdrawal to bank is really slick and the bonus 5-10% above my trading rate I received on proper liquid US exchange does not hurt at all.
 
Joined
Dec 22, 2013
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Let's look at the candles, the short term graph shows... Here we can see bulls getting ready for a push... Bears have the upper hand this week....

I'm so sick of these predictions. I cashed in when BTC was worth something in Dec 2017. Made my profit and got out. Everyday it's up & down up & down... More unstable than a damn ex girlfriend this thing.
 

The_David

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Jan 7, 2016
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Let's look at the candles, the short term graph shows... Here we can see bulls getting ready for a push... Bears have the upper hand this week....

I'm so sick of these predictions. I cashed in when BTC was worth something in Dec 2017. Made my profit and got out. Everyday it's up & down up & down... More unstable than a damn ex girlfriend this thing.
If you know what you doing, the up and down "unstable" flow is where you make your money.
 
Joined
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If you know what you doing, the up and down "unstable" flow is where you make your money.
I actually agree with you there. I don't have the knowledge to play the markets per say. I have respect for those that are hanging in there though.

I guess I'm mad because it's not easy money anymore, at least for me. I should stop being a child. :laugh:
 

The_David

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I actually agree with you there. I don't have the knowledge to play the markets per say. I have respect for those that are hanging in there though.

I guess I'm mad because it's not easy money anymore, at least for me. I should stop being a child. :laugh:
its a great time to start learning. Even if you just follow a bunch of TA's on twitter. Just getting used to the terminology will help.
 

SaiyanZ

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It's a little risky trading right now I think. I haven't traded since we dropped to $3600 a few days ago. Prefer to short as we could go down a lot lower to the $2k area but there's always possibility of a strong move up (even to $4600+) after dropping nearly 20% without any bounce.

In hindsight I could have scalped that $3600 price a few times but I'm playing it safe. Still waiting to short, but only if it goes up a bit first from these regions. It's not safe opening up new shorts close to the one-month low. Better to wait for a bounce or not trade at all in my view.

 
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phly

Senior Member
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Mar 13, 2013
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Looks like you may get your $2900 @phly
I know I will :cool: ... any move up is just delaying the inevitable. The larger trend is still bearish and to the downside until we find a bottom. Which may take time or drag out given all that is going on in the markets worldwide including whispers of a recession.
 
Joined
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We must retest the provisional bottom again, at least once. I think we'll be playing around in the sub $3500 area for the majority of the year. Talk of us having already hit the bottom is short-sighted and gratuitously optimistic.

All the better for us to accumulate at low prices.
 

SaiyanZ

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Seems like it's already struggling at the $3548 fib. Waiting to short above $3620. Will keep shorting anything above and take profit at around $3620.



Edit: Some decent movement now. Made some quick profit, over 0.1 BTC in a few minutes after no trades for a few days. Took a quick long at $3541 when we kept pushing up against the fib resistance. Sold that at $3590 because playing it safe. Then my short at $3675 triggered which I closed at $3625 already. Bitmex had lots of volatility (more than Bitstamp). Shorting again now at $3675. Using 10x leverage.

 
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