Bitcoin Thread - 2018

John Tempus

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The last 4 big movements is a real concern. It literally points out that there is a small group of massive holders doing all the direction changes right now which is great if you are on the sidelines.

The main worry is that it makes me wonder what real network of users is left in crypto ecosystem at this point, doesn't seem like many are left at all ie. basically now we have a centralization of price movement which is very unhealthy to say the least.
 

Doubloon

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Hi All.

We are launching a new South African cryptocurrency exchange. Hoping to get some volunteers to beta test our platform. Please let me know if you are interested.
 

Doubloon

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Hmm... Unsure.

No cost to the tester. We will allocate some play currency to your testing account.

You do not need to register or supply any personal details, we will allocate usernames and passwords so no registration required.

Not trying to promote our exchange, that's why I did not mention the web address.

Going on good will here of the SA public to help us out.
 

phly

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Hmm... Unsure.

No cost to the tester. We will allocate some play currency to your testing account.

You do not need to register or supply any personal details, we will allocate usernames and passwords so no registration required.

Not trying to promote our exchange, that's why I did not mention the web address.

Going on good will here of the SA public to help us out.
custom charting, luno kinda of horrific charting or tradingview charting?

Either way I'm curious and interested.
 

SaiyanZ

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Have been trading actively now since the last move as this is a much safer place to open shorts. Just scalping shorts from $3675 and closing at $3661 (as there seems to be a temp support there). Not sure where the next bigger move will go. Think it might go back down to $3550 next but impossible to say. I'll just keep making small trades.

Bitstamp fibs/prices seems to be more important to watch for now than Bitfinex:




Bitfinex price is not trading close to the main fib levels although it did touch them a couple times:



Edit: Also based on the the way this market works, it shouldn't get above $3800 easily now. If it does it will be a quick spike and then dump. $3800 is the 0.5 fib of the move down from $4100 and bounce from $3500. Basically anyone who went long above $4000 will be trapped with their long positions as if we stay below $3800 whilst others will try to sell at $3800 to break even if they've been average buying. This usually happens after a sharp move up/down like the one from $4000 to $3600 last week.
 
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SaiyanZ

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Currently a no-trade zone for me ($3550/$3600). It's winding up for a bigger move ($100+) and could go either way. So don't want to be trapped in a position if it goes the wrong way. If it goes up to $3680 I'll short from there again though as it's still unlikely to get above $3800 as we haven't dropped far enough yet to liquidate enough longs. If I had to choose sides I'd say we'll probably have one more spike up to around $3700/$3800 and then a larger move to around $3300.



Edit: Seems like the move is going to come soon:



Edit2: There's the break up. Missed my short order by a couple dollars though. Will keep my orders and wait for another move up to short.

 
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SaiyanZ

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Someone posted their position in Trollbox. $39mill short from $8250 still open. Took a screenshot:

short.png

Think his profit on that should be around $22mill currently.
 

SaiyanZ

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Interesting close on the 4hr candle. Only a wick. Rare to have one of these. The candle is only 22c long. There's a fight going on at $3614 fib.

 

phly

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Just as i start trading and have just gone long a devilish wick tried to liquidate me.
Old me would have been wiped out playing at 100x - this time round we are wiser:cool:
Screen Shot 2019-01-16 at 6.56.06 PM.png
 

balrog

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Someone posted their position in Trollbox. $39mill short from $8250 still open. Took a screenshot:

View attachment 604676

Think his profit on that should be around $22mill currently.

Dang!!!!

I really need to read up on your Bitmex trading tips you posted a while back. I have only been trading normal buy and sell, no margin. Think I should start getting my feet wet.
 

SaiyanZ

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Dang!!!!

I really need to read up on your Bitmex trading tips you posted a while back. I have only been trading normal buy and sell, no margin. Think I should start getting my feet wet.
Margin trading is quiet risky. Learnt it the hard way in my first week where I was going with 25x margin. I would suggest not going more than 10x ever and always taking profit whenever possible. Also never using more than 10% of your BTC in a single trade. I stick to around 5% of my stack per trade. So if the market moves against me I can average in a few times and move my liquidation price.

I also usually just take around 1% profit per trade unless it's a sure thing to move more, so it's 10% profit on my invested amount with 10x margin. Since I'm trading 5% of my balance it's equivalent profit from trading 50% of my entire BTC stack for a 1% move if you want to compare it to a non-margin trade.


That guy with the big order said afterwards that it was fake. Don't know how you can post a fake price in Bitmex chat though. A few people tried, as well as myself and couldn't show a fake order.
 

SaiyanZ

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I'm seeing a fractal now. The moves after the two recent large dumps are very similar. Saw it a couple days ago but wasn't sure until yesterday's move. Everything is repeating, just one fib level lower by around $150. I still won't go long here as shorting this region is still the safest option as it could just plummet. Will look to short $3675 again and then $3800 if it goes up. If it doesn't go up I think it's safest to not do anything.


 

John Tempus

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Just dont ever get liquidated. Liquidation takes a 30% chunk out of your principal so in layman terms if you put a stop order in $2 above your liquidation price your actual calculation would be like -99.x% ROI however if you close at above liquidation you would retain roughly 30% of your initial balance.

Rule of thumb never push the limit that you might cross the liquidation rather take the loss before liquidation and continue fighting.

Read more on the technicals here and you could save a ton by still risking a ton.

http://antiliquidation.com/#XbtUsd
 
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SaiyanZ

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So it had the move down already to $3550 already but bounced too quickly. Should have consolidated around there for a few hours to form a more stable low I think. Now it will be more difficult to go up past $3700 to complete the pattern.



Zoomed in. $3614 is holding for now but there was a lot of selling pressure there last night before it broke upwards on Bitmex. Think it's a matter of time before it falls again.

 

John Tempus

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Sub $3550 at or after 5pm local time today.

4-8pm local time bracket is when the chaos seem to hit the heaviest each day and it looks like we might see one of those semi-sharp plunges today. If I am wrong and by some magic bean counter it spikes the other way in that time frame I will just have to take my 2% loss and adjust but I feel pretty good that it will take a good ol sniff at the ground.
 

SaiyanZ

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Yeah I've also got a short open now. Should spike down to $3600 at least soon. I will close there and short the mini-bounce that should happen afterwards again.
 

John Tempus

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Yeah I've also got a short open now. Should spike down to $3600 at least soon. I will close there and short the mini-bounce that should happen afterwards again.
Yeh all the current price movement at these hours are meaningless, low to no volume movements.

The real volume I suspect that would push us down comes between 4-8pm, before then and more often than not after that time bracket is just noise or a followthrough for few hours of what occurred during the 4-8pm shtshow.
 
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