Bitcoin Thread - 2018

SaiyanZ

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Yeah more sideways then dump if it plays out like before. Should be tough to get above $3550 now. I will be shorting from there upwards. If it follows the previous fractal, we'll dump hard again from about $3600.

 

SaiyanZ

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Go that $3550 rejection as expected and made some risky scalps last night and this morning. Went long at $3514 and closed and shorted $3545. Then closed and did it again but from $3530. Now I'm just holding a short as well probably not bounce to $3550 again before a drop below $3500.


Also interesting to note is that the big dump went through a high volume node at $3600. So whales were waiting for people to set up a lot of buys there before dumping for the liquidity. The next such areas are the red zones. If there is a bullish move up in a few days it should go through there. Otherwise we keep dumping.


 

John Tempus

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Also interesting to note is that the big dump went through a high volume node at $3600. So whales were waiting for people to set up a lot of buys there before dumping for the liquidity. The next such areas are the red zones. If there is a bullish move up in a few days it should go through there. Otherwise we keep dumping.
I am convinced after monitoring trading data for the last couple of months, the spikes of long and shorts and few other factors that the following seems to be more than likely what is happening with the price ranges.

1. Group(s) of whales are quite literally pumping and dumping.
2. The same groups are creating volume build up to entice other traders to see a potential buildup for up/down
3. This is the only thing that explains to me some really bizarre directions any Technicals you throw at the market could take outside any normal market conditions. This is really only likely if there is a few controlling the majority of the market at their will.

To finish that off, this is a terrible sign for crypto trading if it is just going to be the norm. I am by far reaping trading benefits out of the big movements and even without using technicals I can nowadays spot the fake buildups that would incur an actual dump and vica versa irrelevant from observing any TA and this is just not a good place for crypto to be.

All of this might come to an end if we had an actual organic market with diverse traders involved but until that returns we will be under the control of a few bigboys.
 

SaiyanZ

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I am convinced after monitoring trading data for the last couple of months, the spikes of long and shorts and few other factors that the following seems to be more than likely what is happening with the price ranges.

1. Group(s) of whales are quite literally pumping and dumping.
2. The same groups are creating volume build up to entice other traders to see a potential buildup for up/down
3. This is the only thing that explains to me some really bizarre directions any Technicals you throw at the market could take outside any normal market conditions. This is really only likely if there is a few controlling the majority of the market at their will.

To finish that off, this is a terrible sign for crypto trading if it is just going to be the norm. I am by far reaping trading benefits out of the big movements and even without using technicals I can nowadays spot the fake buildups that would incur an actual dump and vica versa irrelevant from observing any TA and this is just not a good place for crypto to be.

All of this might come to an end if we had an actual organic market with diverse traders involved but until that returns we will be under the control of a few bigboys.
Yeah there's whales always on the hunt for liquidity. I haven't been monitoring these areas recently as I've been focusing on and trading the smaller moves. One of the biggest pumps last year went through such a zone back in October:

It's got about 6 more hours until it's directly below the kill zone. Whales like breaking through multiple resistances at once as the price is more likely to hold the new level afterwards. Right now there's fairly heavy resistance at $6415 and then $6460/$6480 (on Bitfinex).

That's a candle:



Bitfinex is now sustaining a price of around $350 above the other exchanges. Good or bad, who knows. Either way it's a good time to hold. Broke through all major short term resistances.

Luno price is still around R4k behind at R98k. Should be closer to R102k but it might take a while for buyers to come and people to load funds.
 

John Tempus

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Yep, saw the same things during the $20k crash.

Makes me wonder if whales dumped and were inexperienced in how to regain liquidity and it all backfired to hell and back and forced them to keep dumping. I believe that pump and dump during that runup were involving many more individuals outside of a small click control and once those "in control" started to manipulate the market directions the thousands of other traders got scared and got out dumping the market beyond those "in control" to manage.

The whole market is unfortunately rather fake but on the flipside everyone should aim to make their profit while they can I guess. :)
 

SaiyanZ

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Bear flag looks complete and we have multiple rejections from the $3548 fib. So we should see a dump soon. I'm looking to close around $3450/$3480 as there might be a temp bounce from there but will see how far it dumps first.

We could even reach $3300 on the next dump but since we are close to a monthly low I'd rather take profit earlier and then short again if it bounces. There will be buying pressure from people closing shorts on the way down.

 

SaiyanZ

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Still taking forever to dump properly. Also saw some posts in the Trollbox yesterday about a group of whales supposedly pushing the price down from $4k so that they could buy for cheap and then pump it. A guy even showed his $1.7m long at $3540 with a $3385 liquidation price. (20x leverage). So he expects it to pump soon before dropping a lot more. Don't know if he was just trolling about the whales waiting to pump it.

 

John Tempus

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Depending on the next 20mins I am shorting start of new hour else more than like the end of hour after. I think the whales attempted a few pumps yesterday that failed and its going to take a nose dive now.
 

John Tempus

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I closed my shorts just 20 mins before it dumped big. So missed it but reopened again now.
This dump and inverse pump caught me off guard, expected a dump but never anticipated the pump right back up so my short I closed at even after the whole $130 dump and pump, crazy trading.
 

SaiyanZ

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This dump and inverse pump caught me off guard, expected a dump but never anticipated the pump right back up so my short is literally still sitting even after the whole $130 dump and pump, crazy trading.
Yeah that spike down to $3400 and quick bounce back above $3500 changes things. We might have dropped enough now to liquidate most people who were still holding leveraged longs from $4k+. So now there might be a liquidation hunt over a few days in the other direction all the way to even $3700/$3800. I have a short open but will look to close it as soon as in profit.

It's still below the resistance but with this many attempts and the recent volume and bounce it should push upwards at least a little.

 

John Tempus

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Yeah that spike down to $3400 and quick bounce back above $3500 changes things. We might have dropped enough now to liquidate most people who were still holding leveraged longs from $4k+. So now there might be a liquidation hunt over a few days in the other direction all the way to even $3700/$3800. I have a short open but will look to close it as soon as in profit.
I got out of this ride on my short when it spiked back to even. Got too much on the line to risk under such conditions.

What I did do is take 10% of my usual position and went long at 3515 at 30x which is double my usual max leverage just in case this is one of those stupid pumps of $150-$200 if not I wont be too damaged.
 

saor

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Gonna be interesting to see how the year plays out & whether it spends more time in the sub-3k range. Still strange to think the whole of last year was spent in a pullback.

bt1.png
 

SaiyanZ

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It's just below a major resistance area. I don't see it holding above $3620 if it does break it. Have to wait and see now whether to increase my short position further.



 

SaiyanZ

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Move up to $3900 coming...watch your shorts!
I added to my short here as it got rejected from the fib and $3600 didn't hold for long. There's some big buys waiting on Bitmex though at $3555 and $3560. They've been there since the move up started.



For now I just want to get out at break even at least as there is unpredictable whale action going on so we could see a $300 move at any time. It is around the level I expected it to dump from though. We just didn't spend any time below $3500. Only wicks.
 

John Tempus

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For now I just want to get out at break even at least as there is unpredictable whale action going on so we could see a $300 move at any time. It is around the level I expected it to dump from though. We just didn't spend any time below $3500. Only wicks.
80% of my TA is just floating out the window today so I wont even attempt to look at any rational outcome. That said for now my long gamble is paying off but I have zero confidence in whichever direction it would end up before I close it. We are entering the bitcoin twilight trading zone lol
 

SaiyanZ

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80% of my TA is just floating out the window today so I wont even attempt to look at any rational outcome. That said for now my long gamble is paying off but I have zero confidence in whichever direction it would end up before I close it. We are entering the bitcoin twilight trading zone lol

Whatever the whales do, they'll need a lot of funds to break through the $100 zone from $3580 to $3680. Massive resistance here from 1 month of trading and people holding longs for a while at a loss who just want to close at break even . If you zoom out, it looks a bit like a 1 month long descending triangle on the $3500/$3600 area.


 
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