Bitcoin Thread - 2018

SaiyanZ

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If history repeats, the big dump will come 24 hours from now. Might happen sooner because of how fast we were rejected in this last move.

 

John Tempus

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I think it is starting within the next hour , after the pump and slow burn each hour trendline shifted back down like a mofo.

The crazy market can still do just whatever the fk it wants though, gotta stay vigil. :)

In short, in 6minutes post candle close it will be clearer indicator whats to come based on trend.

EDIT: hold on to your hats, think the direction is confirmed down unless the whales are really trying to mindfk everyone.
 
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SaiyanZ

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Still $3550 for days but the dump is expected today.



Something that I've been thinking about though is the Bitmex funding when we've had 2 weeks of mostly sideways. With this long sideways the funding becomes much more important and shorts have been paying longs a fair amount. So people holding shorts for two weeks, waiting for $3300/$3200, are probably getting impatient as they've been paying a lot of funding. Enough to erode much of a the return if they shorted from $3700 and are on high leverage. On the other hand, longs have made a fair bit through funding by just holding so they're more comfortable holding their positions.

Given this, I think we might see a quick bounce after dropping as people close shorts because we might have another week of sideways and they lose more.
 

John Tempus

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Still $3550 for days but the dump is expected today.



Something that I've been thinking about though is the Bitmex funding when we've had 2 weeks of mostly sideways. With this long sideways the funding becomes much more important and shorts have been paying longs a fair amount. So people holding shorts for two weeks, waiting for $3300/$3200, are probably getting impatient as they've been paying a lot of funding. Enough to erode much of a the return if they shorted from $3700 and are on high leverage. On the other hand, longs have made a fair bit through funding by just holding so they're more comfortable holding their positions.

Given this, I think we might see a quick bounce after dropping as people close shorts because we might have another week of sideways and they lose more.
Shorts and long fees have switch around multiple times, its not like the longs have been constantly on the fee side of things. In fact most days it flips about once to either side.

You will notice that if there is a fee schedule right before the hour the fee kicks in people close their positions. You could in theory on Bitmex make a profit by opening inverse position ie. if fees go against longs and its about to close and fee is due, open a short cause a chunk of longs will close their positions in order to avoid paying any of the funding fees. The same goes for the other way around, I have experimented with this and if you scalp tiny amounts it is pretty effective just not as lucrative as actually trading the market ignoring the noise around fees.

Example: shorts are paying fees in 2hrs, I pretty much guarantee you right before the 2hr candle closes there will be a mini pump as shorts close their positions to avoid fees. Also it helps to keep in mind what kind of funding rate is due, the higher the funding rate the more people would close positions to avoid fees and just end up taking minimum profit or minimum loss.
 

SaiyanZ

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Ever since the dump from $6k the funding has been more in favour of longs though and if longs do end up paying shorts it's usually quite small.


Dump came at the exact time as before but it bounced strongly, unlike previous times. We're also now just below a high volume node at $3550 so whales might pump through it for the liquidity. Will now wait for the next move before trading as we could still go either way but bulls have the upper hand if they can hold this $3530 level for a few hours.

 
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Swa

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This is weird. No squeezes in either direction like they've been silently cancelled the last few days instead.
 

SaiyanZ

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That dump eventually came, albeit a few hours late. I didn't trade it all the way. There is some accumulation going on on Bitmex and Bitfinex which suggests a major pump at some point. $3520 and $3590 took extremely long to break on these exchanges as big buy walls kept coming for days. Think Bitfinex $3590 level was tested 5 or 6 times which is way above normal for a level to hold. Usually the 3rd test of an area will break it.

Not sure what I'll do now. Got to be careful shorting this area as it is a 1 month low, also given the accumulation that was going on. Will short if it goes back to $3550 and will go long if it drops to $3300.

 

SaiyanZ

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Think we might go up to retest the $3480/$3500 region now. It's happened the previous times where we go up to retest the previous trading area after the 2nd dump. Either way, holding a long at these prices feels safer than holding a short.

 

SaiyanZ

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I've closed at $3430 for now but will reopen a long again at 3410 if it drops. It's getting resistance at the $3426 fib level as well as made a slightly lower higher vs 2 days ago. So sell pressure is strong around here. Though it should bounce around in the $3400 area so can make a few small trades here.




It should still go up but like this:

 
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SaiyanZ

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Didn't quite get there but today was somehow my most profitable day so far on Bitmex. I longed every dip and caught the bottoms every time. Scalped $20/$30 moves 5 times.

 

SaiyanZ

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Just opened a risky long here at $3415. Knife-catching. $3400/$3410 is a potential support zone so it could bounce from here. If it doesn't then I'll just average in lower down again.



Edit: Thoughts for the next few days. If we go above $3550 we probably will go all the way to about $3700/$3800.

 
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SaiyanZ

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I'm still long here for now. Price couldn't get above that $3426 fib again in the yellow bubble. Though I think there are enough buyers in this $3360/$3380 region for it to hold and get a $100 move up. Don't think $3500 will break easily now. Maybe $3480 max before dump unless we have one long green candle that bursts through everything. It won't break $3500 going up slowly.

 
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