Bitcoin Thread - 2018

John Tempus

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Great TA guys, thanks for sharing. Only one question remains now. WHEN MOON? xD
I hate to be the pss in your cereal but there is a possibility that we could follow a similar trend of recovery as Gold. Look at Gold runup and then 5 years of decline and then slowly recovering however mostly just continuing a range trade.

Since crypto market is much more volatile I dont expect it to take as long as Gold to make any moves up or down but be prepared that we could constantly shift in a $1k range for 2,3,5 or even 10 years. If there is no real adoption into mainstream then I dont see us mooning any time soon.

Anyone buying and holding at this point be prepared to buy and hold for 5-10years if you want to have any chance of beating inflation/traditional interest rates on your investment.
 

balrog

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I hate to be the pss in your cereal but there is a possibility that we could follow a similar trend of recovery as Gold. Look at Gold runup and then 5 years of decline and then slowly recovering however mostly just continuing a range trade.

Since crypto market is much more volatile I dont expect it to take as long as Gold to make any moves up or down but be prepared that we could constantly shift in a $1k range for 2,3,5 or even 10 years. If there is no real adoption into mainstream then I dont see us mooning any time soon.

Anyone buying and holding at this point be prepared to buy and hold for 5-10years if you want to have any chance of beating inflation/traditional interest rates on your investment.
Good point, it could go that way. The only reasons I think we will see a new bull run-up next year and the year after:
1. Institutional money entering the market with Bakkt and a possible ETF. This could still take a while (mid to end of this year - Bakkt maybe from around April/May). This is a new asset class that could be a diversification for funds.
2. Halving - in May 2020, the emission rate of Bitcoin will halve from the current 12.5 BTC emission per block. This is like halving the mining output of the world's gold mines, if you want to think of it like that. The months after each halving has been the months that the bull run starts accelerating - looking historically. Will history repeat itself? Can't say for sure, but the decreased emission rate reduces the supply. If the demand stays the same or increases, the price will follow.
3. Lightning - BTC could become a real "digital money" that is quick and extremely cheap to pay for goods and services. Once it is easy and idiot-proof for people to use it as a payment system, why would stores still want to pay expensive Credit card fees? This could drive Mass Adoption.
4. (longer time frame 10+ years IMHO) The USA dept scenario and the house of cards that is the fiat money-system could collapse. What can take it's place... Crypto
5. Real world solutions built on blockchain. Gaming - Xaya.io. Freelancing - Stipend. Smart contracts - Ethereum. 100% private transactions - Beam and Grin. Online provably fair gambling (not legal in RSA though, if I understand correctly)- FunFair (but legal casino's can use the FF system as a back-end for their casinos - physical or online). All projects that have not matured yet, but their day is coming closer. If projects like these can make it and prove the real-world solutions offered by blockchain, I see this accelerating other and new projects.

Those are my long term reasons for remaining a crypto Bull. I see a bright future for crypto once we have weathered this chilly winter.... Just hold onto your hats, people :)
 

SaiyanZ

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Yeah we could have sideways for months/years which I don't mind as I'll be trading and accumulating.

Right now it's finding a little support on the $3360 fib level but will probably drop a little more if the past is anything to go by (we in the yellow region). After the drop we'll have a pump back to above $3380 if the pattern plays out.

 

John Tempus

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Good point, it could go that way. The only reasons I think we will see a new bull run-up next year and the year after:
1. Institutional money entering the market with Bakkt and a possible ETF. This could still take a while (mid to end of this year - Bakkt maybe from around April/May). This is a new asset class that could be a diversification for funds.
2. Halving - in May 2020, the emission rate of Bitcoin will halve from the current 12.5 BTC emission per block. This is like halving the mining output of the world's gold mines, if you want to think of it like that. The months after each halving has been the months that the bull run starts accelerating - looking historically. Will history repeat itself? Can't say for sure, but the decreased emission rate reduces the supply. If the demand stays the same or increases, the price will follow.
3. Lightning - BTC could become a real "digital money" that is quick and extremely cheap to pay for goods and services. Once it is easy and idiot-proof for people to use it as a payment system, why would stores still want to pay expensive Credit card fees? This could drive Mass Adoption.
4. (longer time frame 10+ years IMHO) The USA dept scenario and the house of cards that is the fiat money-system could collapse. What can take it's place... Crypto
5. Real world solutions built on blockchain. Gaming - Xaya.io. Freelancing - Stipend. Smart contracts - Ethereum. 100% private transactions - Beam and Grin. Online provably fair gambling (not legal in RSA though, if I understand correctly)- FunFair (but legal casino's can use the FF system as a back-end for their casinos - physical or online). All projects that have not matured yet, but their day is coming closer. If projects like these can make it and prove the real-world solutions offered by blockchain, I see this accelerating other and new projects.

Those are my long term reasons for remaining a crypto Bull. I see a bright future for crypto once we have weathered this chilly winter.... Just hold onto your hats, people :)

It is fine to consider all of those things but at the end if you are a bitcoin maximalist you need to be certain you are holding the right coin. If you are trading in and out of various coins you would be more prepared than just a bitcoin holder.

There is a possibility that somehow a new Bitcoin 2.0 solution comes out that retains all the great features of Bitcoin and manage to improve/remove the weaker points of current Bitcoin. It might be that Bitcoin gets flipped meanwhile people wait for it to MOON to no avail since they had their basket full of Bitcoin only and simply bought and hold.

Bitcoin itself is the front runner right now but in 5 years who really knows with the rapid changes in tech. To buy and hold and hope Bitcoin will be the definite winner when everything MOONS is really risking it in an ALL or NOTHING investment.

That is just madness. :)


ps. Halving and price determination is overblown. There has been no real correlation with bitcoin halving and the price going up or down, its a coin flip. All I can see with the halving=MOON comments is that it acts as the last glass of hopium for people deep in a hole.
 

Swa

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Those are my long term reasons for remaining a crypto Bull. I see a bright future for crypto once we have weathered this chilly winter.... Just hold onto your hats, people :)
What's a bright future though? A bright future would be just surviving and being used. The main problem in crypto is the greed. Everyone thinks they can be in for a 2,000,000 % profit but that's neither realistic nor sustainable. At some point it has to settle on a value and then perhaps just become a commodity gradually increasing in value.
 

SaiyanZ

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$3360 is still the support. Just wicks below. It looks a lot like the price action on 11 Jan where we dropped to the fib support and traded on it for a while. So could drop more but I expect a quick rebound back to above this level, to say $3380/$3390. If we go up now to $3450 first without dropping then it's very bullish and I'd say the temp bottom is in.



 
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SaiyanZ

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So it completed the move down and then quick bounce to $3380/$3390. Might be sideways here for a while or a slow move down back to $3360/$3370 based on previous moves. If it pumps now to +$3450 then it will probably keep going higher as it will be a trend change.

 

phly

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Go Bitcoin go! I like when there is change in trend and even better when the trend changes in favor my direction bias.
 

phly

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Got out and ran with my profits - if these markets have taught me anything - is not to be greedy.
Screen Shot 2019-02-08 at 6.57.56 PM.png
 

SaiyanZ

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Yeah trend change now for sure but things might simmer down soon. It hit the top of the channel.



Big picture. We might still be on a downward path from here and stay in the channel:

 
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saor

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Yeah trend change now for sure but things might simmer down soon. It hit the top of the channel.
Nice move up & a fair bit more volume than the last few days, but compared to earlier it's still very low volume.

ldl.png
 

SaiyanZ

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Nice move up & a fair bit more volume than the last few days, but compared to earlier it's still very low volume.

View attachment 617152
Still bigger volume than we've had for 6 weeks. I think it will fall though maybe after a spike to $3800. I'm playing both sides here, holding a short open on one account whilst scalping with longs on the other.

Edit: Seems to have settled around the $3613 fib level on Bistamp:



Some similarity to move after Jan 6th pump:

 
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saor

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Wonder what the next move is.
Break up & out of that downward trend or back down for more bouncing around.
 

4cer

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I think we need some proper volume break out to get out of this cycle... else most likely the bart.
 
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