Bitcoin Thread - 2018

SaiyanZ

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I also think bart. It looks like a bull flag but BTC flags usually don't last long. It either breaks upwards quickly or ultimately becomes a bart. The last time a bull flag broke upwards after 3 or more days was back in July/Aug 2018.
 

phly

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Personally I think we are headed higher. The bart move up is holding - it was not just hot air otherwise if it was a fakeout we would have dropped back down. So in my own humble opinion we are headed higher up. BTC will probably flag and the continuation pattern will go ahead. the move up even propped up the weekly RSI. In any case we will see this week how things go. My next main target is the $4400 range.
 

SaiyanZ

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I will open up a long if it drops to $3550 and also add to my short if it goes up to $3700. However also have to be aware that an extreme move can happen as it's happened twice in the last two months with a $500 move down smashing through everything.

This scenario is not impossible:



And if that happens then we'll probably end up making a descending triangle on $3100 over a couple months leading to a sub $3000 move.

 
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SaiyanZ

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Seems like it's going to dump now but don't know how far. We just had the 3612 fib rejection. The big $500 dump on 10th Jan started after such a move.

 

saor

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Seems like it's going to dump now but don't know how far. We just had the 3612 fib rejection. The big $500 dump on 10th Jan started after such a move.
No you meant to say temporary bull run to $6k then when everyone's excited, plummet back down to sub $3k.
 

SaiyanZ

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Might be a dead cat bounce from $3550. Looks similar to previous price action here. According to the fractal, the big move is expected this evening. Lets see what happens.

 

phly

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Might be a dead cat bounce from $3550. Looks similar to previous price action here. According to the fractal, the big move is expected this evening. Lets see what happens.

I see we kissed the 3550 - still see it as an opportunity for a long? Also today is the 12th - fun usually begins on this magical day. So yea around 3ish we should start to have an idea of what Bitcoin wants to do.
 

SaiyanZ

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I see we kissed the 3550 - still see it as an opportunity for a long? Also today is the 12th - fun usually begins on this magical day. So yea around 3ish we should start to have an idea of what Bitcoin wants to do.
I longed $3551 (had an order waiting there for a few days ever since the pump) but already closed at $3575. Quick scalps. Not sure if it will bounce there again. Also closed half of my short position here just in case there is a bounce back above $3600. Will hold the rest of the short position.
 

phly

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Still waiting for an upset - Those looking to short being caught out by a pump - however the lack of volume also has me concerned. At this stage the dominoes can fall either way.
 

John Tempus

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I longed $3551 (had an order waiting there for a few days ever since the pump) but already closed at $3575. Quick scalps. Not sure if it will bounce there again. Also closed half of my short position here just in case there is a bounce back above $3600. Will hold the rest of the short position.
You have the right idea, quick scalps is the other of the day even if there is trend that suggest it might go higher or lower than your closing position. Way too risky to sit in a trade for too long right now, market is being shaken like a tornado and at any time a city might get lifted into the area or meteor slam the city deep into the ground.
 

SaiyanZ

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Interesting price action just now on Bitstamp. Over 1000BTC volume and yet the price couldn't be pushed down much. Seems like a big fight is going on at the moment. Whales vs whales.

 

SaiyanZ

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Still don't know what is going to happen next but we just had some fat liquidations with that dip below $3550. Seems like several big traders were counting on $3550 not breaking.
liq.png
 

SaiyanZ

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Just looking at the shorts now on Bitfinex it seems a dump is imminent. BTC tends to dump after people close shorts and pump after people open them.

Check the 7th/8th Feb below. Lots of shorts were opened and then rekt afterwards in one pump. Also back on 6th-10th Jan lots of shorts were closed and then the price dumped afterwards.

 

SaiyanZ

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Still taking forever for something to happen but there is a lot of similarity between price action now and back in early Jan. It's the same pattern, bouncing between and through fib levels, just below the same downtrend diagonal. Things are just taking twice as long to play out now.



Zoomed in Jan:



Zoomed in now:

 

SaiyanZ

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Hahah that Bitmex pump and dump specials never get old.

The $100 pump causing people to FOMO like mad dogs then suddenly a $130 dump straight down the red candle of doom.

Yeah I was a spectator in that. Couldn't even place a short near the top because Bitmex was overloaded. Eventually got in at $3630 with a market sell. Closed that short already.

I've hardly traded at all this week as I've still got a short open and don't want to hold a long here. Decided to join in now as it's boring just watching and not trading. Just have to make sure I take profit often from the longs.
 
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