Bitcoin Thread - 2018

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Yeah I was a spectator in that. Couldn't even place a short near the top because Bitmex was overloaded. Eventually got in at $3630 with a market sell. Closed that short already.

I've hardly traded at all this week as I've still got a short open and don't want to hold a long here. Decided to join in now as it's boring just watching and not trading. Just have to make sure I take profit often from the longs.
I have not looked at it in detail as it takes too much time but I am pretty sure when the buys thin out to drive the price up some crazy wacko whales buy it up to cause the sudden pump and these same whales realized by now that when they do it other autotrading bots start to open up orders stacking the orderbook on the way up and these same whales just dump like madcows right into them straight down.
 

SaiyanZ

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Looks like there was a very deliberate pump over a 12 hour period. Price action was not normal as volume suddenly increased and was maintained for the whole 12 hours as it went up $100 slowly and steadily. Also went through the intersection of the fib and the long term downtrend channel. One area to watch now for a dump is $3550 on the 24th. If it's going to dump big it would go through there I think. Don't know what will happen until then. Maybe another week of sideways.


 

Hxx

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Looks like there was a very deliberate pump over a 12 hour period. Price action was not normal as volume suddenly increased and was maintained for the whole 12 hours as it went up $100 slowly and steadily. Also went through the intersection of the fib and the long term downtrend channel. One area to watch now for a dump is $3550 on the 24th. If it's going to dump big it would go through there I think. Don't know what will happen until then. Maybe another week of sideways.


What is happening on the 24th that you are expecting a dump then?
 

SaiyanZ

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What is happening on the 24th that you are expecting a dump then?
That's when the $3550 fib intersects the main downtrend channel (marked on chart). So there will be a lot of orders placed/waiting in that area. Whales usually target these zones for the extra liquidity and also because once pushed below there is less chance of it bouncing back above as the area becomes double resistance.
 
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That's when the $3550 fib intersects the main downtrend channel (marked on chart). So there will be a lot of orders placed/waiting in that area. Whales usually target these zones for the extra liquidity and also because once pushed below there is less chance of it bouncing back above as the area becomes double resistance.
The inverse is also true though, whales targetting the areas pressuring a dump while inverse pump suddenly happen at discounted rates as people FOMO into the dump caused based on technicals.

Orderbook sizes is just way too flat even within a $100 range to give any meaning to the current price action. Take into consideration on Bitmex at any point you can move the Bitcoin price $20 by a mere $10million or even less more often than not. $20 suddenly dump would start to liquidate various 50x idiots and put into motion others to dump fearing a crash.

To me these average orderbook sizes is the main issue with crypto and we cant really take any of the price levels serious until the day that it takes $50million+ to move the price by $1 and that day is probably a long long way off.
 

SaiyanZ

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Seems like the resistance for now is $4k on Bitfinex. Usually it will spike above even if it does dump afterwards so I expect a little more up. There is also some fib resistance at $3887 (on Bitstamp below) but I think the $4k on Bitfinex is the main issue.



Interesting thing is that the Open Interest on Bitmex hasn't increased since the pump started. It's actually a little lower. So more people closed positions instead of opened new ones on the way up from $3550. So accumulation stage is over I think so we either go sideways and not much more up or start to drop slowly.


Edit: Also realized that there is a way to move your liquidation price without taking too much damage. Just open and close a new position (but keep the original one) if the price moves against you. A loss is realized but the liquidation price moves further away accordingly. You get the benefit of the moved liquidation price but it makes no difference in overall long term profit if you were going to hold until break-even or in profit again anyway. Can only be done if doing small trades and not if trading with full account.

eg. With a total account value of $100k:
- Open $10k short at $3500. Liquidation is at say $3900.
- Price moves to $3800 so open another $10k short and close it again at $3800. Liquidation price moves to $4100. A loss is realized so total account value drops to say $95k.
- Still have original $10k short open and if the price drops back to $3500 your account balance will be $100k again.
- Other option is to not do anything and risk getting liquidated at $3900. There is no benefit from doing nothing though if you have enough funds available.

So by doing this and as long as you're not trading too much of your account at a time you can nearly always avoid liquidation.
 
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balrog

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Seems like the resistance for now is $4k on Bitfinex. Usually it will spike above even if it does dump afterwards so I expect a little more up. There is also some fib resistance at $3887 (on Bitstamp below) but I think the $4k on Bitfinex is the main issue.



Interesting thing is that the Open Interest on Bitmex hasn't increased since the pump started. It's actually a little lower. So more people closed positions instead of opened new ones on the way up from $3550. So accumulation stage is over I think so we either go sideways and not much more up or start to drop slowly.


Edit: Also realized that there is a way to move your liquidation price without taking too much damage. Just open and close a new position (but keep the original one) if the price moves against you. A loss is realized but the liquidation price moves further away accordingly. You get the benefit of the moved liquidation price but it makes no difference in overall long term profit if you were going to hold until break-even or in profit again anyway. Can only be done if doing small trades and not if trading with full account.

eg. With a total account value of $100k:
- Open $10k short at $3500. Liquidation is at say $3900.
- Price moves to $3800 so open another $10k short and close it again at $3800. Liquidation price moves to $4100. A loss is realized so total account value drops to say $95k.
- Still have original $10k short open and if the price drops back to $3500 your account balance will be $100k again.
- Other option is to not do anything and risk getting liquidated at $3900. There is no benefit from doing nothing though if you have enough funds available.

So by doing this and as long as you're not trading too much of your account at a time you can nearly always avoid liquidation.
I have been looking into Bitmex trading. Doing a lot of research before I jump in.

Is my understanding correct:
- If I want to open a SHORT, I set my Limit order (trying to avoid Market order due to fees) HIGHER than the current price, to buy contracts and get my entry position. I then press the "Sell/Short" button. Then choose my Margin, leverage etc etc
- For a LONG, I set my Limit order BELOW the current price, to buy contracts and get my entry position. Then click the "Buy/Long" button and choose my Margin, leverage etc etc
- Then separately, I will set a Stop (of all the varieties available)

This is just a bit of a strange way of doing things to enter a SHORT or LONG - but I guess that is just the way it works? It is all very different to just buying and selling on exchanges, which I have been doing for about 3 years.

Also to confirm, you can only have ONE position open at a single time, and all the Stops you set are applicable to that single position?

Any other tips and hints welcome :)
 

SaiyanZ

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Also to confirm, you can only have ONE position open at a single time, and all the Stops you set are applicable to that single position?
Yeah only one position at a time since if you are already long then opening any short will just reduce your long position. Hence why it is probably better to have two accounts, one for just longs and another for shorts.

You can also alter the amount of your stops and also set up opposite positions to take partial profit at various prices instead of closing the entire order.

eg. You longed for $10k at $3500. Then you can take a portion of profit at different prices by setting sell limit orders like $5k at $3700 and $5k at $3900.
 

balrog

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Yeah only one position at a time since if you are already long then opening any short will just reduce your long position. Hence why it is probably better to have two accounts, one for just longs and another for shorts.

You can also alter the amount of your stops and also set up opposite positions to take partial profit at various prices instead of closing the entire order.

eg. You longed for $10k at $3500. Then you can take a portion of profit at different prices by setting sell limit orders like $5k at $3700 and $5k at $3900.
Schweet, thanks! :)
 
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You guys should take a look at kraken leverage market. It is slowly picking up pace but I find the overall platform much smoother and the fact it has 6 different coins pegged to USD with up to 50x leverage and lower fees than Bitmex/higher kickbacks for market maker orders Ive started to trade about 50/50 between bitmex account and kraken account. The only downside in case this is a no-no for anyone here, you need to do KYC but its pretty seemless at least when I did it over a year ago.

https://futures.kraken.com/
 

SaiyanZ

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You guys should take a look at kraken leverage market. It is slowly picking up pace but I find the overall platform much smoother and the fact it has 6 different coins pegged to USD with up to 50x leverage and lower fees than Bitmex/higher kickbacks for market maker orders Ive started to trade about 50/50 between bitmex account and kraken account. The only downside in case this is a no-no for anyone here, you need to do KYC but its pretty seemless at least when I did it over a year ago.

https://futures.kraken.com/
Had a quick look. Volume looks quite low there for the XBT:USD contract. Only $3.6m open interest right now vs Bitmex $460m. Should be ok for swing trades but it would probably be too dead in a sideways period.
 
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Had a quick look. Volume looks quite low there for the XBT:USD contract. Only $3.6m open interest right now vs Bitmex $460m. Should be ok for swing trades but it would probably be too dead in a sideways period.
Kraken mimics bitmex movement pretty well but what I like the most is that Bitmex moves a few seconds before kraken reacts. I caught a couple of instances where Bitmex dumped and I used this info to short on kraken before kraken followed bitmex dump.

So in a way kraken is almost like a arbitrage opportunity right now.
 

SaiyanZ

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Looking at the big picture, we might have a big downwards trend/dump start in the coming weeks. Whenever Bitfinex shorts dropped to 20k BTC in the last year we dumped. Low shorts means less fuel for whales to push the price upwards. They can still push it up but they'll have to use their own money and rely on FOMO so it is less likely to happen.


 
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