Bitcoin Thread - 2018

SaiyanZ

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This is my current scalping strategy. Have split my BTC across 3 accounts and am trading specific ranges with small amounts from each account. If the price moves out of a range I use the next account and keep the previous position open. Only using 10x leverage so the price would need to move about $800 before I need to add to it to save it.



So longing at the bottom of each range and shorting at the top. Except I think we might have a bigger move down at some point so I'm not longing above $5250. Also wont short with my last account unless it goes above $5400. This way I always have an account with which to trade the current smaller moves ($30/$50 moves)
 

SaiyanZ

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Things have been pretty slow the last few days. Seems like it will move soon though. Looks very similar to previous action. Target about $5250.

 

John Tempus

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Things have been pretty slow the last few days. Seems like it will move soon though. Looks very similar to previous action. Target about $5250.

I got it pegged in a different direction right now.

It will go sideways in similar pattern it has gone in the last couple of days and then have a 20% drop in a single session for a possible stretched out head and shoulders to form. I think the price is at a high now at $5k with retesting of $4k plummet to follow for the next big trading day. Just cant pinpoint when exactly this might occur but the longer the sideways action continues the closer the plummet will be.

Lets be real the $4k-$5k pump in 2 hours was based on nothing happening in the trading world/crypto world. It just came out of nowhere and it will likely plummet back out of nowhere to retest the level it pumped from.

There is another article that articulated it better. Each time we were this overbought on 200day we saw 20-25% dump which would put us squarely back at $4k levels.
 

Swa

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^ I agree with this. It tested $5300 twice and failed. Then it tested $5450 and fell even more back to below $5000. These are unrealistic values with nothing to back them that were preceded by some fake news and April fools jokes.
 

delta66

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sold off yesterday @77000..***** should of known there would of been FOMO today
 
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SaiyanZ

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Caught a ride yesterday from $5022 to $5170.. Holding paid off for once. Held the whole day because volume was too dead to scalp. Hard to say what will happen now. It's hitting each fib level at the moment and we might have another leg up to the next fib at about $5250 but in in the last few weeks each pump was followed by a bigger dump. Key level is $5123 for now. If it gets defended then it's probably going to keep going up.



Today I'm just scalping between $5180 and $5150 until the price breaks either way. Shorting if it gets there and buying back just above $5150. Not opening any longs for now.
 
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SaiyanZ

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Luno really trying to push it again. Fomo fever.
The Rand is also fairly low right now at R14 vs the Dollar. So it will be fairly easy for the price to hold at R77k on Luno and the BTC price can easily go up to R85k if the Rand heads towards R15 vs the Dollar even without any movement in the BTC USD price.

So buying the next dump on Luno, probably to around R70k is a pretty safe trade. If it dumps at all that is.
 

John Tempus

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Well looks like the downward right shoulder is taking off.

If this happen to take extra dump over night breaking 4800 i think the 4000 bottom test will be kicking in within a single trading session.

If we break 4000 then all bets are off and we are heading to the pits. :)
 

SaiyanZ

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I think it's going to retest region between $4960/$5040. A break and daily close below there should signal the end of the uptrend. It could still spike up to $5400 again though before dumping.

 

phly

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I think it's going to retest region between $4960/$5040. A break and daily close below there should signal the end of the uptrend. It could still spike up to $5400 again though before dumping.

So in essence going long or short now you have the same equal chance of getting screwed.
My worry is nothing between 4100 and 4600 was ever tested - I don't trust that vacuum - yes BTC has been holding support and testing higher highs and flagging and doing all sort of bullish antics and 6k is not that far off either but ... that pocket of air concerns me - atleast a 50% retest of support.
 

SaiyanZ

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So in essence going long or short now you have the same equal chance of getting screwed.
My worry is nothing between 4100 and 4600 was ever tested - I don't trust that vacuum - yes BTC has been holding support and testing higher highs and flagging and doing all sort of bullish antics and 6k is not that far off either but ... that pocket of air concerns me - atleast a 50% retest of support.
Yeah I'm fairly sure we will go down to $4200 at least at some point. But no way to know how far up we will go first and for how long.
 

SaiyanZ

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Looking at what I've learnt about leveraged positions and the whale market, their liquidations are getting close. Each time the price pumps they take profit and then add more on the dip with some of the profit. So the heavy liquidations would be somewhere in those red bubbles, each time getting closer to the current price after each dip. Once that zone gets too close or if we fall to it, there's a very high chance of one of those $500+ dumps. It's fairly close now.

 

phly

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Looking at what I've learnt about leveraged positions and the whale market, their liquidations are getting close. Each time the price pumps they take profit and then add more on the dip with some of the profit. So the heavy liquidations would be somewhere in those red bubbles, each time getting closer to the current price after each dip. Once that zone gets too close or if we fall to it, there's a very high chance of one of those $500+ dumps. It's fairly close now.
Screen Shot 2019-04-18 at 2.39.34 PM.png

The way this has been holding up has been incredible especially after that pump - plus its a continuation pattern so there is definitely some up movement to make first but even on the twitterverse sentiments are split. Time will soon tell.
 

John Tempus

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Yup I have also re-evaluated that 4000 dump is less and less likely, starting to look like like a push towards 5500-5800 on high side and quite possible 4900-5100 on the low end unless something drastically changes.

But in the famous words of Bush.. The market aint gonna be fool me again so anything is still on the table. ;-)
 
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