Bitcoin Thread - 2018

SaiyanZ

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Always interesting to see things from a different perspective. This is the last year of price action upside down. If you wouldn't sell or short with such a chart you can ask yourself why would you then buy or long now. Easy way to test of you have FOMO.

 

Countcrypto

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Always interesting to see things from a different perspective. This is the last year of price action upside down. If you wouldn't sell or short with such a chart you can ask yourself why would you then buy or long now. Easy way to test of you have FOMO.

Now do last 2 years.
 

Tman*

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I would suggest to never ever bother buying/selling aka active trading on luno/ZAR market.
Bruh, I cant disagree with you more.
1. Luno consistently has some of the highest selling prices of all exchanges on the planet, meaning you get the best price for your BTC.
2. Most people with a basic understanding in trading know you can avoid all taker/maker fees by avoiding instant buy, its that simple.
 

John Tempus

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Bruh, I cant disagree with you more.
1. Luno consistently has some of the highest selling prices of all exchanges on the planet, meaning you get the best price for your BTC.
2. Most people with a basic understanding in trading know you can avoid all taker/maker fees by avoiding instant buy, its that simple.
1. Luno price move too slow, way too little liquidity ie. orderbook is tiny nearly meaningless.
2. Having a higher price on luno does not mean you make more if you also buy at a higher price.
3. Fees are not the issue, its clear you can avoid it by being a taker.
4. Stuck with only trading between BTC/ZAR cant take up any other good trading scalps that might come up suddenly.

5. I cant stress it enough, BTC price movement up or down is too unresponsive specifically during off hours that you do not get to experience the real time market price fluctuations.
 

L10Yn

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Anyone used PayFast when paying on Takealot or any other website? Just a few questions
1) I see that you have 10 minutes to pay, what happens if your transaction takes longer than 10 minutes to complete?
2) What is the best way to calculate the fee you should pay to have it confirmed in 10 minutes?
3) Does payfast require you to create an account first or can you just purchase things anonymously (Thinking of tax implications here)?
 

L10Yn

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Also if you need a refund from Takealot for example... Will you get it in cash, bitcoin or only store credit?
 

Swa

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I have noticed something peculiar and I don't know if i'm the only one or if you have also experienced this. Suppose I want to get funds onto bitmex then the standard procedure is bank to Luno to Mex - I usually just buy at market prices so rand gets converted to BTC immediately and I move that mex. Luno obviously charges their fee. Which I have seen is usually about R50 to R60 - I don't mind swallowing that fee but my issue comes between Luno and Bitmex. Somehow somewhere in between there I get "charged" or lose about 10% of which I haven't figured out why or even how. If for example I have R1000 - it gets converted to BTC so it ends up being about R950 however by the time the BTC gets to Bitmex it's about R850??

Any idea as to why this is - yes the amount is now in USD on Mex but BTC equivalent should not be that low.
BTC fees are reaching a high again. Which is what I predicted will happen if we start to go the same route as 2017. Ultimately this will kill any possible bull run we might have.

Now do last 2 years.
Why 2 years?
 

Countcrypto

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BTC fees are reaching a high again. Which is what I predicted will happen if we start to go the same route as 2017. Ultimately this will kill any possible bull run we might have.


Why 2 years?
Regarding the fees, that is a concern as far as mass adoption is concerned. At current levels the high range is around 3$ per transaction. That puts the old idea of btc being used to buy a coffee etc out of the equation until lighning network etc mature, BUT the real use case for Btc is a store of value, like Gold.

Fiat perfectly fulfills the role of buying your coffee etc so I don't think BTC future lies in that initial goal. Rather it's real value will be in it's digital and deflationary nature. Also it will always have a place in the heart of us who see the fractional reserve banking sector as the doomed scam that it is.

Why 2 years? Because in that time frame it is breaking major resistance and breaking to 9500, above which there is a very little resistance up to 11k region. There's lots of reason to long it.

In fact in the 10 year time frame btc never left the bull run and 2018 was just a healthy correction on it's way up to 1 million plus.
 

Swa

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Regarding the fees, that is a concern as far as mass adoption is concerned. At current levels the high range is around 3$ per transaction. That puts the old idea of btc being used to buy a coffee etc out of the equation until lighning network etc mature, BUT the real use case for Btc is a store of value, like Gold.

Fiat perfectly fulfills the role of buying your coffee etc so I don't think BTC future lies in that initial goal. Rather it's real value will be in it's digital and deflationary nature. Also it will always have a place in the heart of us who see the fractional reserve banking sector as the doomed scam that it is.
And that is the problem. You are too sentimental about it when it's more about the technology. It has to evolve and something else will come along. Bitcoin is a first. Firsts rarely last long. They invariably fail in the long run.

Why 2 years? Because in that time frame it is breaking major resistance and breaking to 9500, above which there is a very little resistance up to 11k region. There's lots of reason to long it.

In fact in the 10 year time frame btc never left the bull run and 2018 was just a healthy correction on it's way up to 1 million plus.
You're stuck in 2017 fomo. Few supports have been tested on its way up so there's still a major possibility it could go back down all the way. The only thing you're seeing is a static chart. You're missing the forest for the trees. The market conditions are majorly different now than in 2017. Partly the reason it did so well back then was BCH and BTG and the fomo in hoarding BTC for the lineup of forks. It died down and the downtrend happened as soon as those coins proved mostly worthless.
 

Countcrypto

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And that is the problem. You are too sentimental about it when it's more about the technology. It has to evolve and something else will come along. Bitcoin is a first. Firsts rarely last long. They invariably fail in the long run.


You're stuck in 2017 fomo. Few supports have been tested on its way up so there's still a major possibility it could go back down all the way. The only thing you're seeing is a static chart. You're missing the forest for the trees. The market conditions are majorly different now than in 2017. Partly the reason it did so well back then was BCH and BTG and the fomo in hoarding BTC for the lineup of forks. It died down and the downtrend happened as soon as those coins proved mostly worthless.
Let me start by saying that when I previously bought btc I only did to buy alts. My chief interests lie in projects like eos, cardano, tron and stellar of which I have a few k of each (and a few ether, a few k ftm: the korean eos). Basically utility tokens most likely to see in the decentralised internet 3.0, Plus a bunch of shitcoins which I have written off.

I also have a few monero and ltc in the currency class use case and recently only bought some small token btc (0.25) to hold when it broke 4200, because I was convinced when it propped its head above certain moving averages trading bots alone would ride it up plus liquidating the trades of those in the habit at always shorting it. I had always followed btc on my journey to learn charting and TA. I did along the journey get convinced of the potential of btc but remain emotionally uninvested in its' price, but heavily invested in what its success can bring to the blockchain space in general.

I am no btc maximalist, and no day trader. But when the btc short markets opened and a lot of people started shorting it down and did very well off it, that didn't mean that would be the only winning strategy for all of time. Btc has retracted 80 to 90 percent after massive runs and been declared dead without ever..... EVER actually making lower lows on the long term time scale. Bitcoin has always been in a bull market. And there is nothing to say it won't follow those trends up again to make 2017 run appear just like another blip. In fact if u go by the trend and charts etc.... And take emotion out of it.... That is the likely scenerio.
 
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SaiyanZ

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There is a limit that things can ultimately valued at as it has to be compared to the value of everything else. The entire world stock market cap is around $100 trillion. Bitcoin at $1mill will have a market cap of $22 trillion (assuming 22mill BTC ultimately in circulation). Would it ever be worth 22% of the entire world stock market which contains every little company in the world creating value? Most would say not so it is extremely unlikely to keep going up like it has in the past and carry on with the same growth towards $1mill.

Bitcoin will ultimately level out and go sideways like Gold has done. That is assuming something else can't do whatever it does better as in that case it will fall. The main thing Bitcoin has going for it is that it was the first main crypto (and the volatility plus ease at which you can trade and move it around the world but these apply to all major crypto)
 
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John Tempus

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Let me start by saying that when I previously bought btc I only did to buy alts. My chief interests lie in projects like eos, cardano, tron and stellar of which I have a few k of each (and a few ether, a few k ftm: the korean eos). Basically utility tokens most likely to see in the decentralised internet 3.0, Plus a bunch of shitcoins which I have written off.

I also have a few monero and ltc in the currency class use case and recently only bought some small token btc (0.25) to hold when it broke 4200, because I was convinced when it propped its head above certain moving averages trading bots alone would ride it up plus liquidating the trades of those in the habit at always shorting it. I had always followed btc on my journey to learn charting and TA. I did along the journey get convinced of the potential of btc but remain emotionally uninvested in its' price, but heavily invested in what its success can bring to the blockchain space in general.

I am no btc maximalist, and no day trader. But when the btc short markets opened and a lot of people started shorting it down and did very well off it, that didn't mean that would be the only winning strategy for all of time. Btc has retracted 80 to 90 percent after massive runs and been declared dead without ever..... EVER actually making lower lows on the long term time scale. Bitcoin has always been in a bull market. And there is nothing to say it won't follow those trends up again to make 2017 run appear just like another blip. In fact if u go by the trend and charts etc.... And take emotion out of it.... That is the likely scenerio.
I think you misunderstand the concept of lower lows and using your defined longterm scale doesnt apply to anything really.

As I stated in earlier reply, what do you define as long term ? Since inception when it was priced at $0 ? Well of course if thats your long term then nothing in the trading world can ever have a new lower low because the price obviously cannot go below 0.

Bitcoin went through more bear market periods in its full life cycle than bull market periods and that is normal for any trading asset because people tend to not just dump all their money continously into something they are not certain about just yet.

Just because a price goes up massively in 1 month and then drops by 50% over the next 6 months does not mean it was in a bull market for the past 7 months. That is not how any of this terminology works.

I still don't understand what your point is about bitcoin always being in a bull market and never made another lower low, this one baffles me quite a bit since you are not stating any timeframe used to determine this.

Now I don't want to burst your bubble because it seems to me just from observation that you are a bit new in the crypto trading space so this is all still very exciting for you which is awesome but there is absolutely no specific reason that if bitcoin pump up to $40k by end of 2019 theoretically that we will not run into a year or two of yet another 80% retrace from the $40k high.

In fact I would bet you top dollar that if we do make a double ATH by end of 2019 that the likely scenario afterwards going into 2020 would be crypto winter that will make the $20k crash look like wonderland.

If that plays out it would really be perfect because it would retrace and be on the projected $100k target for end of 2021 so a $40k crash down to $20k would rebuild between 2020 to mid 2021 upwards to $100k.

The worse thing right now for crypto would be for us to just to pump higher 2019 highs every second day without any red candle days or stable price discovery days where buying and selling pressure even out just to show that support levels aint completely useless.
 
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Swa

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Let me start by saying that when I previously bought btc I only did to buy alts. My chief interests lie in projects like eos, cardano, tron and stellar of which I have a few k of each (and a few ether, a few k ftm: the korean eos). Basically utility tokens most likely to see in the decentralised internet 3.0, Plus a bunch of shitcoins which I have written off.

I also have a few monero and ltc in the currency class use case and recently only bought some small token btc (0.25) to hold when it broke 4200, because I was convinced when it propped its head above certain moving averages trading bots alone would ride it up plus liquidating the trades of those in the habit at always shorting it. I had always followed btc on my journey to learn charting and TA. I did along the journey get convinced of the potential of btc but remain emotionally uninvested in its' price, but heavily invested in what its success can bring to the blockchain space in general.

I am no btc maximalist, and no day trader. But when the btc short markets opened and a lot of people started shorting it down and did very well off it, that didn't mean that would be the only winning strategy for all of time. Btc has retracted 80 to 90 percent after massive runs and been declared dead without ever..... EVER actually making lower lows on the long term time scale. Bitcoin has always been in a bull market. And there is nothing to say it won't follow those trends up again to make 2017 run appear just like another blip. In fact if u go by the trend and charts etc.... And take emotion out of it.... That is the likely scenerio.
That is where you're wrong and things become very subjective. What is a lower low? When it went past $4k there were those who thought it would never again reach $3k and there we were not very long ago. There's still a chance it could reach $1k from here. Would that be a new lower low for you? We just don't know these things and how they will play out. What we do know is that the longer it goes on the bigger the bubble bursts get. So we might still see a dump from $100k (if it ever reaches that) to below $1k.

There can be just so much buying power and I don't think in the grand scheme of things we can have a Bitcoin price of 6 figures. Maybe we can have in the lower 5 in the long run.

Also I think you misunderstand the concept of a bull market. Bitcoin has definitely not been in a bull market from Jan 2018 to Jan 2019. That's not how bull markets work. Bull markets are periodic definitions and not overall. We will see Bitcoin go through even more protracted bear markets than the ones we already have.

I still think you are too invested in Bitcoin and even blockchain for that matter. We are already seeing alternatives like proof of stake/space and in future we will even see alternatives to the clunky blockchain. This is simply the first iteration and firsts like I said always fail in some aspect. This isn't the first time we've seen 3D. It was as bad in its red monochrome iteration as Bitcoin and blockchain is now.
 

phly

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I believe something is only as worth as what two parties are willingly able to pay for it. Question comes as to what is Bitcoin's true value. Sellers and buyers determine that value on a daily basis. However in that same breathe Bitcoin is unique in the sense that it is an uncorrelated asset - nothing is really backing it as opposed to the currencies in the world.

So here is an asset without anything backing it where traders trade it on a daily, gaining adoption and attracting investors from all walks of life be it the guy trying to do borderless payments or the man who believes blockchain is the answer to the ills of this world or the woman who is running a store and widening the scope of her income by accepting a digital currency.

Right now bitcoin is seen as digital gold but with all the developments many hope it will be a digital currency once transaction fees drop and it also becomes "almost instantaneous" to transact with. And even if it fails to be a digital currency - there are several alternatives out there in form of altcoins vying for that position. A favourite of mine is Nano.

Right now however it is hard to gauge just how high or low we can go due to all the manipulation and the fact that it does not take alot to move BTC price but once bitcoin matures (- and adoption happens - and investors flock in, which is just a matter of time due to all the factors playing out economically and also as a hedge from the uncertainty of the stocks out there - and its not easy to manipulate its price -) then we will having something so proper that most would wonder how we ever lived life any other way.
 

Countcrypto

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That is where you're wrong and things become very subjective. What is a lower low? When it went past $4k there were those who thought it would never again reach $3k and there we were not very long ago. There's still a chance it could reach $1k from here. Would that be a new lower low for you? We just don't know these things and how they will play out. What we do know is that the longer it goes on the bigger the bubble bursts get. So we might still see a dump from $100k (if it ever reaches that) to below $1k.
longterm.png
 

Countcrypto

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There can be just so much buying power and I don't think in the grand scheme of things we can have a Bitcoin price of 6 figures. Maybe we can have in the lower 5 in the long run.
Why not ? All currency/assets only have the value that people attribute to them. If people hold on to their BTC for dear life and don't want to part with it then whose to say it can't have massive value. Hence why I shrug off the use case of buying coffee/pizza etc with BTc just like you wouldn't shave off your Kruger rands to do the same.

Also I think you misunderstand the concept of a bull market. Bitcoin has definitely not been in a bull market from Jan 2018 to Jan 2019. That's not how bull markets work. Bull markets are periodic definitions and not overall. We will see Bitcoin go through even more protracted bear markets than the ones we already have.
I fully understand the concept of a bull market. And if you take the entire time frame BTC has never actually left the technical definition of a bull market.

I still think you are too invested in Bitcoin and even blockchain for that matter. We are already seeing alternatives like proof of stake/space and in future we will even see alternatives to the clunky blockchain. This is simply the first iteration and firsts like I said always fail in some aspect. This isn't the first time we've seen 3D. It was as bad in its red monochrome iteration as Bitcoin and blockchain is now.
Did you miss my post where I stated that BTC was actually not at all my interest in the space, and that I only follow it because it attracts people to the projects I actually care about ?
 

John Tempus

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I fully understand the concept of a bull market. And if you take the entire time frame BTC has never actually left the technical definition of a bull market.
Again you are wrong and since you continue to seemingly believe what you are writing it seems to me that you just don't understand or don't get what the term bull market / bear market means.

I don't understand how you can actually believe what you wrote about entire time frame of BTC which I even pointed out is not a valid time frame because you CANNOT go below $0 on the asset so in your mind and your definition of a bull market then BTC will always be in a bull market which is the most ridiculous thing I have heard in a while about trading.

By your same logic every single stock / asset trading in the world is also in a permanent bull market all of their listed existence, crazy.

It is not this complicated to understand.
 

Countcrypto

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Again you are wrong and since you continue to seemingly believe what you are writing it seems to me that you just don't understand or don't get what the term bull market / bear market means.
I assure you I do know the definition.

I don't understand how you can actually believe what you wrote about entire time frame of BTC which I even pointed out is not a valid time frame because you CANNOT go below $0 on the asset so in your mind and your definition of a bull market then BTC will always be in a bull market which is the most ridiculous thing I have heard in a while about trading.
As per the long term graph I posted above the overall trend of Bitcoin is bullish and always has been if you consider it from the long term perspective. There's nothing "ridiculous" about looking at things from different perspectives. You don't have to like the perspective that chart offers, but that doesn't invalidate it or make it useless. Don't get so emotional. :p
 
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