Bitcoin Thread - 2018

phly

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Not really true if you look at the charts. It does seem to dump more often on Sunday though and a few of the times it was a dump that followed a bigger pump on the same Sunday. So the price closed higher for the day though.

Also nothing much happened after close last night. Still going sideways 10 hours later. I stayed up till 4am to check if something was going to give.

I slept like a baby - still waiting for 11900ish level. Dropped down to support and now rising up nicely. Waiting for a small mini pump or move to go and touch my take profit level. Then reassess things after that.
 

Thor

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Nothing besides the weekly and monthly counts for anything in bitcoin

I take it week by week. If we enter tomorrow above 10499 then we'll stay there the week if we enter tomorrow with 10498 then we'll see 8k by Wednesday
 

Swa

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Selling down to the fibs would be a good strategy. Not happening though as a few Sundays ago it just kept going up and ended on a weekly high.
 

SaiyanZ

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Yep, means down. We went down to $9600 though so it might have already played out.

Got in a short at $11620. Will keep the stop at $11600.5. Since it has a chance of being a big one I don't want to get stopped out.

 
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phly

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I slept like a baby - still waiting for 11900ish level. Dropped down to support and now rising up nicely. Waiting for a small mini pump or move to go and touch my take profit level. Then reassess things after that.
This played out nicely - pump just landed - now to wait it out and see - I am still of the opinion we are heading back to 13k -

Wish I was playing with the mega bucks that some folks have here.
 

SaiyanZ

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I've been fairly unlucky with trades in the last couple days. When I decided to take profit early from a long after a $250 pump, it pumped another $450. When I decide not to take profit early from a short after a $250 drop, it reverses and pumps $600. Still have gained a fair bit but sucks to not make the most of a trade.




More up is fine though if in no trade as can cash out for more. The only really bad thing one can do on Bitmex (if trading safely with stops) is miss out on a short if it dumps big. Want to take out that extra cash I put in last week.
 

phly

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I've been fairly unlucky with trades in the last couple days. When I decided to take profit early from a long after a $250 pump, it pumped another $450. When I decide not to take profit early from a short after a $250 drop, it reverses and pumps $600. Still have gained a fair bit but sucks to not make the most of a trade.




More up is fine though if in no trade as can cash out for more. The only really bad thing one can do on Bitmex (if trading safely with stops) is miss out on a short if it dumps big. Want to take out that extra cash I put in last week.
Thats what i was looking at yesterday and even though i was convinced of 11900ish I thought let me still play it safe.

I would suggest try go back to what you were doing before as you had much success with that. Often times we mess things up (trading wise) when we deviate from the tried and tested strategies to try something new and different - abandoning what has been working and brought us this far - just my 2cents.
Screen Shot 2019-07-07 at 8.49.31 PM.png
 

abcab

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Bad cold and lots of meds had me in zombie mode last night. Looks like my account was possessed when I went in this morning. Instead of stop lossing a short, I sold some more. Don't know why I even did that because I usuall set a trailing stop up. Probably because the volitiliry was a bit low for my liking.

So here I am hoping for a nice dump this morning so I can just get out square, and it goes and pumps to nearly 12k a few minutes ago. Dont drink and drive applies to trading as well.
 

John Tempus

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The question right now is just when to short today.

After that $600million pump on bitmex for $600 price rise, the scamwick should probably make a massive dump sometime later today/early morning our time.

Manipulators or I should probably at this point call them savvy traders were accumulating a ton of coins for cheap around $11100-$11400 levels so if this start to move sideways rest of today these guys will want to take big chunks of profit to reload again.

The only question is when but if there is any logic behind these pumps and dumps I would say anyone who got a short in at $12k should be able to close a nice profit after the dump later today. My best guess if the same trend of pump/dump remains would be to try get out of short around $11500-$11600 levels to be safe with profit taking.
 

Countcrypto

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The question right now is just when to short today.

After that $600million pump on bitmex for $600 price rise, the scamwick should probably make a massive dump sometime later today/early morning our time.

Manipulators or I should probably at this point call them savvy traders were accumulating a ton of coins for cheap around $11100-$11400 levels so if this start to move sideways rest of today these guys will want to take big chunks of profit to reload again.

The only question is when but if there is any logic behind these pumps and dumps I would say anyone who got a short in at $12k should be able to close a nice profit after the dump later today. My best guess if the same trend of pump/dump remains would be to try get out of short around $11500-$11600 levels to be safe with profit taking.
Inverse head and shoulders, tightening wedge etc suggests this pump can go up to 13k.
 

John Tempus

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Inverse head and shoulders, tightening wedge etc suggests this pump can go up to 13k.
All depends on what time frame you are looking. So perhaps in a day or two but Shorting at the top of a 5% pump when that pump slows down and starts to move sideways/down slowly is the go to for triggering another dump back down.

If you have the patience the clearest way to profit at set take profits without staying in too long would be to just look at whenever there has been a dump of 4%+ and the market start to trade sideways for hours, its a good time to buy before the next pump, rinse repeat in the opposite direction.

Only look for sideways tractions once any of the 1%+ up/down movements slow down usually its in a 0.5%-1% range the sideways movement and generally more down than up after a massive pump and more up than down after a massive dump.

That said I have a decent short in at $12030 with enough ammo if I need to add to the short assuming some miraculous repump up to $13000.
 

SaiyanZ

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I would suggest try go back to what you were doing before as you had much success with that. Often times we mess things up (trading wise) when we deviate from the tried and tested strategies to try something new and different - abandoning what has been working and brought us this far - just my 2cents.
The breakout trading strat works fine and is fairly safe. Still up 45% in around 4 days. 1btc is now 1.45btc but could have been a lot more. Guess I have to accept that I can't profit off every move. Better than gambling and losing though.
 

John Tempus

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The breakout trading strat works fine and is fairly safe. Still up 45% in around 4 days. 1btc is now 1.45btc but could have been a lot more. Guess I have to accept that I can't profit off every move. Better than gambling and losing though.
Yep, stick to what makes profit even if its not the maximum you could have attained.

I have made similar mistakes trying to adjust to get the max out of movements until I reached a point that its better to just accept the winnings whatever it is than to try keep chasing every last drop out of every movement. You need to be a fictional rainman to predict the exact top and bottoms, any profit you do manage to hit in between is a win and just be happy with it.

The hardest thing imaginable is when the info you use and your gut tells you to exit with a loss cause the direction changed and its more profitable to actually get out at a loss. To this day I still have occasional hic ups not getting out with a loss when I know its the better move but it gets better over time.
 

SaiyanZ

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Seems like a good area to look for a short. 0.618 fib. This was the turning point for many 2018 peaks. Tried to enter but got stopped out with noise.




2018 0.618 fib peaks:

 

SaiyanZ

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Yeah what a train wreck. If on Bitmex I still think it's safest to look for a short around here with stop loss at entry. If the price goes up you still score in USD. If it goes down you score from your position. Can't lose either way. I've just 1x short my entire balance here to lock in USD profit until I have time to trade later.

If you long and it goes down then it's possible to lose a lot of USD/ZAR equivalent.

 

phly

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For those on bitmex kindly clarify something for me. Suppose one goes short at 12k with a take profit limit at 11k. Then sets a stop limit later once the trade has been going on for a while for say 11.9k just incase price retraces - does the stop limit cancel out the take profit and will the stop limit even work when it is set after the entry price. I.e would a stop limit work when set at 11.9k or does it have to be set below entry at say 12.1k? Hope I make sense.
 
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