Bitcoin Thread - 2018

netcruiser

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I mentioned why I don't believe you, personally. But tell me who you know who actually did cash in.
Because it is supremely stupid to advertise things like that on the Internet.

The person I know got in below $100 and only started selling at $10000.
 

netcruiser

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So, in other words, you can advertise this but offer no proof.
Lol, did you expect the notarised documents from the attorneys... Dude, you asked, I replied, you didn't believe. That's your problem, I really don't care.
 

Speedster

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I'm hardly a big player, but I've spent about R10k over the last month - pressure washer, steam blaster, pool cleaner, general home repairs
 

Swa

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I can only tell you this. I've cashed out twice what I put in and still have three times the profit left. I'm not going to spend money I don't need to spend at this point as every grand could be worth two grand next year.

So a new processor upgrade now could eventually cost me a threadripper system later.
 

acidrain

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When payfast was still supporting bitcoin I bought quite a few things via Takealot. Also still buying bitcoin miners about every 3 months.
 

SaiyanZ

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I think BTC has spent too much time around $10k now. The longer it stays here, the higher the chance of a large dump. History shows that when this happens a dump is imminent. The one in November 2018 took several months to eventually dump though so who knows how long this will take. I would say ultimate target would be between $7k and $8k before the next bull run if any.




Edit: In the short term there are volume gaps in those 3 green line zones ($10550, $10230, $9800). So the price will tend to creep towards these prices and spend a little time in each before choosing next direction.

 
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SaiyanZ

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Looks like this is going down today. Target of around $9500. If it stayed above $10100 I would still say it could go either way but it came down all the way to that $10030 fib and spent some time there. 4th time test of a level is most likely a break.


 

Swa

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I'm not so sure. Last month it hit $9400. This month it quickly threw off $9600 and never hit my level. The support seems to be getting higher while the resistance is getting lower. It quickly went through the $10,100-10,200 zone again. In such cases it usually rockets to $10,500.

Think we'll be trading in a narrowing range between $10,500 and $11,500 for the next month.
 

SaiyanZ

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I still think down. The market is being held up with some big orders and this last small push up made the lineup of key levels perfect at $9470.




Also, the fake walls are at extreme levels. First time I ever see a $120m wall. The person has been spoofing all morning to hold the price. To put it in perspective, if that order is somehow filled, this person would be about 14% of the entire open market on Bitmex (total open positions for both shorts and longs are $880m). Nobody does that no matter how much money they have. So they're spoofing here to hold the price whilst they close longs or open shorts.

705543
 
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John Tempus

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Ye that 122m wall was bizarre and it would have to be one user at 100x margin across multiple accounts putting up that combined walled.

Bitmex only allows exposure of up to 250BTC on margin so on single account the best he could do is 2.5BTC x 100 leverage = $2.5million so either this guy did this across 60+ accounts at once or the other extreme scary situation is that it is someone who legit did this with 1x leverage and actually holding $122m in balance.

That big wall also raises some questions yet again, is Bitmex trading inhouse with unlimited funny money (they have already confirmed long time ago that they use inhouse trading partners for liquidity, could they go rogue doing **** like this?) to put orders in because it just makes no sense that it would be an actual user doing that.

Very weird situation.
 

SaiyanZ

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It looks like you can increase your risk limit to over 1000BTC. My slider goes up to 1100BTC (200BTC default)

So with 1000BTC risk limit you just need 12 accounts with $100k in each. $100k at 100x = $10mill position with 1000BTC exposure.

Think $10mill is the max position you can have on an account. So need 12 accounts and it could be a group of people doing this. I don't think it is in Bitmex's best interest to spoof with big walls like this as the volume completely dies when there's a big wall.
 

John Tempus

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It looks like you can increase your risk limit to over 1000BTC. My slider goes up to 1100BTC (200BTC default)

So with 1000BTC risk limit you just need 12 accounts with $100k in each. $100k at 100x = $10mill position with 1000BTC exposure.

Think $10mill is the max position you can have on an account. So need 12 accounts and it could be a group of people doing this. I don't think it is in Bitmex's best interest to spoof with big walls like this as the volume completely dies when there's a big wall.
Yes you can increase it but the risk percentage taken increases dramatically. I think it goes from 14% up to 30% or something stupid that is taken from the position until it is closed.

Ye I agree its not in bitmex best interest but its also one of the strangest things ever observed on Bitmex so for me anything is a possibility.

You have to understand that Bitmex afterall get paid commission in BTC that they need to liquidate so in theory stemming volume on bitmex like this would keep the price up allowing to liquidate their BTC into USD more easily at a stable price on other exchanges. I have no proof to back this up but just pointing out that it could still be bitmex self stemming trading in order to liquidate their own funds elsewhere at stable prices.
 

SaiyanZ

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Finally the big dump came. Managed to score a bit on this one as I trusted my instinct and just held my shorts open for over a day. Didn't panic close as it crept upwards today. Even managed to close my shorts and open a long right at the bottom at $9500.



Anyone's guess what the next trend is now. It was bound to break out big. Probably a sustained downtrend for a week or two now as there's more likely to be sell pressure.
 

Swa

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This was a deliberate dump. They waited till the breakout above $10,200 just like on Sunday. So far this is two dumps now in a row without the pump. The major pump to $11,500 still hasn't happened.
 

abcab

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Oct 22, 2008
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That was so cool, picked up my personal best on a single move. 70% banked. Done for the day. Going to relax and see where we are in the morning when, hopefully, things have settled down.
 

SaiyanZ

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Got to watch out for the evening dumps for the next few days as there might be a few profit takers converting to USD now. Bitmex withdrawals take about 3 to 4 hours to process after being actioned at 3pm daily. So that's around 6pm/7pm our time when batches of BTC will reach USD exchanges.


Edit: There's also something interesting on the volume profile chart. Someone bought a lot on the way down at a few prices. Those volume spikes at certain prices with a dump like this shouldn't be there at all. Open interest on Bitmex hasn't really changed much for such a move too. Could be that someone was buying up the liquidation walls whilst it fell.


705835
 
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SaiyanZ

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I'm scalping a long for now. Will probably see a relief bounce to create a new downwards channel from somewhere here. The sooner it bounces, the higher it can go.



Will switch to short again around there.
 

Swa

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it's a bloodbath out there on the charts
This dump wasn't supposed to happen. It seems we were supposed to hang around $9600 last week and then go up but neither of that happened and we only touched $9600 and $10600. We had a narrowing range but I think somebody messed this one up so we could go up to $13k now.

There's no way that 24k longs over 8k shorts is a bear market. I'd like somebody to try and pull the other one on that.
 
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