Bitcoin Thread - 2018

SaiyanZ

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This dump wasn't supposed to happen. It seems we were supposed to hang around $9600 last week and then go up but neither of that happened and we only touched $9600 and $10600. We had a narrowing range but I think somebody messed this one up so we could go up to $13k now.

There's no way that 24k longs over 8k shorts is a bear market. I'd like somebody to try and pull the other one on that.
Those Bitfinex charts don't matter too much anymore I think. Bitmex, Binance and Coinbase are the exchanges which drive the market now.

It's easier to continue to push downwards from here for now with a few minor bounces as there's lots of underwater longs which are close to liquidation and not so many underwater shorts. Each time there is a new low there is another huge bunch of liquidations on Bitmex which snowballs and pushes down the price easily.
 

SaiyanZ

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Seems like max it can go now is around $9700. Definitely not going to hang around here for another whole day.




Edit: There's that sell pressure. Was hoping to catch a liquidation wick closer to $9700 but we've had too much boring sideways today.

 
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SaiyanZ

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The wick finally came. Closed long and flipped short at $9680. Think we will now go to around $8900/$9000.

 

Swa

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Bitfinex maintenance from 10:30. Hold on to your horses.
 

SaiyanZ

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It now looks almost the same as last months pattern. I think it's a trap to make people long here so I'm keeping my short open and carefully adding more to it.

I think as soon as the market seems to be doing the same thing is when it stops doing the same thing.

 

Swa

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This dump wasn't supposed to happen. It seems we were supposed to hang around $9600 last week and then go up but neither of that happened and we only touched $9600 and $10600. We had a narrowing range but I think somebody messed this one up so we could go up to $13k now.

There's no way that 24k longs over 8k shorts is a bear market. I'd like somebody to try and pull the other one on that.
.
 

Tjoker

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It now looks almost the same as last months pattern. I think it's a trap to make people long here so I'm keeping my short open and carefully adding more to it.

I think as soon as the market seems to be doing the same thing is when it stops doing the same thing.

Do you mainly work of the 1h and 4h charts? What is your avg trades per week? Less seems definitely like more :)
 

SaiyanZ

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Do you mainly work of the 1h and 4h charts? What is your avg trades per week? Less seems definitely like more :)
Usually 1hr but I switch around to 15min or 4hr/1day to see more/less detail.

Yeah, with all the volatility we have recently, there's no reason to try and scalp $100 moves. I usually hold and start placing a stop loss once I'm at least 2% in profit. So I'm only placing a trade every couple of days now. When trying to trade the $100 moves, you end up missing the $500 move and still end up underwater. So have to pick one or the other. Can't do both.

When the price starts stabilizing and goes sideways for a week, only then I would say it's worth it to start trading the $100 moves.
 

SaiyanZ

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Yeah it's still following the old pattern which says a bit of noise below $10850 and then another big pump once it breaks $10950.

I'm not a believer though and will keep scalping shorts off the top and increase my average short if it goes up. Won't make as much money as longing if it does keep going up but will still keep growing in USD and score if it dumps heavily. If I look at the past history, this is where the most money is lost in USD as it's difficult to open a short and hold it after a 10% drop, so when it keeps dropping and ends up at 20%/30% down, it's a big hit to the USD value of portfolio.

Have been trading with smaller % for the last month so my liquidations are above $14k and I do take partial profits so that liquidation price will keep increasing as I make profitable short trades.


 

SaiyanZ

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So the moves were very similar until the very end. Made a slightly lower high and then big dump. Probably trapped a lot of longs who were trading the pattern or who were expecting $11.2k at the top of the triangle.



I'll be shorting each $200+ bounce now. Think this will waterfall down to below $9k at least.
 

SaiyanZ

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With that many addresses flowing into one 94.5k BTC wallet, it's almost surely an Exchange consolidating BTC which was spread all over many wallets. I'm also fairly sure only Exchanges have that much BTC these days.
 

Swa

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With that many addresses flowing into one 94.5k BTC wallet, it's almost surely an Exchange consolidating BTC which was spread all over many wallets. I'm also fairly sure only Exchanges have that much BTC these days.
If so it would be easy for Huobi to confirm since it seems to be their addresses. I don't know why they'd need to investigate. The puzzling part is also that they paid 0.06534852 BTC or $700 in fees, 20x what was needed. Exchanges usually go for low fees and large transactions are easily picked up.
 

John Tempus

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Everyone should keep in mind that on the same day BTC corrected, Gold price also corrected by over $50.

I think there is more correlation to it than people might think and I doubt a bitcoin whale was also moving the gold price by $50. ;-)
 

Swa

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Everyone should keep in mind that on the same day BTC corrected, Gold price also corrected by over $50.

I think there is more correlation to it than people might think and I doubt a bitcoin whale was also moving the gold price by $50. ;-)
Rather same causation than correlation.
 

John Tempus

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Rather same causation than correlation.
Whether its directly connected or whales manipulate BTC price according to gold price movements I cannot say but gold price rally this year have had more often than not a relation with BTC price pump and dumps.

Its more than just a correlation for BTC to dump from 10950 down to 10200 after a 10%+ day and half price pump when gold dumped from 1560 down to 1505 after a day and half of big ass price pump.
 

Swa

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Whether its directly connected or whales manipulate BTC price according to gold price movements I cannot say but gold price rally this year have had more often than not a relation with BTC price pump and dumps.

Its more than just a correlation for BTC to dump from 10950 down to 10200 after a 10%+ day and half price pump when gold dumped from 1560 down to 1505 after a day and half of big ass price pump.
There was talk of easing tensions in the U.S.-China trade debacle. Doesn't matter if it's true or not as mere talk will influence markets. My guess is whales will use the opportunities when it will be the easiest to manipulate.
 
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