Bitcoin Thread

Wary GOM

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Back down to this price level...wonder if it's gonna break lower or what.

View attachment 1092331
Still quite high levels of both buying and selling at these levels so there probably isn’t much pressure either to break out either up or down. (On my track record of giving opinion on bitcoin, it will probably go berserk overnight!)
 

Temujin

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US stock markets started dumping on the 16th, taking crypto down with it from BTC's recovery over $40K. The S&P 500 bearish rising wedge I warned a month ago about broke down and there needs to be a reversal fast (unlikely) otherwise things will get very bloody.

First daily close below the trend line that started in March 2020... View attachment 1091369

Currently retesting, looking strong
 

acidrain

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No. Media FUD I assume.
The media is probably just using the trend to sell the news. If anything, China cracking down on mining would be good news, making the hash rate more distributed. Not only that but a lower hash rate means lowered difficulty meaning easier entry points for joe soap, meaning more small-scale miners meaning.... you know.

To me, this seems to be following your normal stock cycle which is now in the markdown phase.
 

Voicy

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Every crypto is crashing simultaneously. I think this has much less to do with Elon and FOMO whales and more to do with Hedge funds selling off en masse to get enough liquidity to stay off Margin Calls on GME and AMC.


US stock markets started dumping on the 16th, taking crypto down with it from BTC's recovery over $40K. The S&P 500 bearish rising wedge I warned a month ago about broke down and there needs to be a reversal fast (unlikely) otherwise things will get very bloody.

First daily close below the trend line that started in March 2020... View attachment 1091369
Quick shoutout to Sensorei for using tradingview. I'm learning more and more about it by the day! (Fibonacci's and Elliot Waves are still kicking my ass though)
The media is probably just using the trend to sell the news. If anything, China cracking down on mining would be good news, making the hash rate more distributed. Not only that but a lower hash rate means lowered difficulty meaning easier entry points for joe soap, meaning more small-scale miners meaning.... you know.

To me, this seems to be following your normal stock cycle which is now in the markdown phase.


I'll say it again. Hedge funds and banks are liquidating a ton of their asses to stave off the looming margin call:

SR-NSCC-2021-002 was filed and approved today, taking effect on Wednesday. It automates the margin call process from the DTCC/NSCC. So if it detects that if a hedge fund or institution is over-leveraged on its short positions on stocks, it will force them to show collateral on their short positions within 1 hour.

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This explains why the US stock market is taking a dive as the whales are selling off their shares and why all the cryptos are tanking.

Chase Bank has also been moving $50,000,000,000 (yes Billion) between customer accounts all over yesterday. One could speculate, but there's f*ckery afoot where they're trying to move around massive amounts of liquidity to pool together collateral where required to avoid automated margin calls.

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It's also not a coincidence that the daily reverse repo rate has hit numerous ALL TIME HIGHS this last week.

It was sitting at an average of about $450 Billion for the last couple of months...and with in the last 2 weeks it's shot up to $755 billion. It's the cash being loaned and repurchased (repo) from the Federal Reserve.

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In addition to 002, the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) has filed numerous new rules that are being put in place to curb naked short selling of shares, which is exactly what's causing this meltdown.

The hedge funds have borrowed and sold way more shares than there are in existence with the intention of tanking the share price (shorting it) so much that the company folds (see Sears and toys R us) ... and then they don't have to repay the price of the borrowed shares because the companies are insolvent...except in this case they were caught with their hands in the cookie jar and now people are buying more and more shares without selling them even when the price tanks. ... just like we did with bitcoin. Buy the dip and HODL.

Now suddenly the Margin call changes are forcing those hedge funds to show that they actually DO have the cash to back up all their borrowed positions. Which they don't. Obviously. But now they're pulling out all their positions in crypto etc. to make it LOOK like they have enough liquidity as to avoid the automated system kicking in and buying shares at the available prices...and if nobody is selling, that price sky rockets...

1624315923927.png


I could go on and on, but this has nothing to do with Bitcoin...or China...or Elon (this time anyway)

There's talks of massive inflation coming soon. We'll see what happens. Diversifying into Crypto might be a safe bet even though it appears to be volatile. (This is not financial advice)
 
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Wary GOM

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Both the last downdrafts have been around $20K drops. The same again would leave us around $20K total.
Sounds reasonable. The thing is that the big gals and guys are right in the game and orchestrating prices to their needs.
 

flytek

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I don"t really get this whale manipulation. Look at a graph of the last 3 years. This is just an even bigger bubble half way to deflating.
 

Wary GOM

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You are dead right about the bubble and its deflation. That is one of the things that shows that at the moment bitcoin is still very much a speculative play. Increasing numbers of institutions now have joined the individual whales like Elon Musk, so the market has taken another step in its evolution. [@Voicey had an interesting post earlier today on this.]

All the big players are equally happy in a filling bubble and one that is deflating. All that really changes for them are the time frames and size of each selling and buying opportunity. Analysing the BTC graphs over the last while show numerous areas where big players have encouraged buying or selling. Each time they have done this they will have either bought when most speculators/traders were selling and sold when speculators/traders again stepped into the market and were buying. To me this is manipulation of prices. It is perfectly justifiable from mega investors, just as it is by the market makers in other financial instruments. There is not necessarily any complicity or conspiracy: each mega player is just using fear and greed of the majority of speculators/traders to maximise gains and the opportunities to do so are the same for each whale. So they appear to swim in a pod but only by following the same schools of investors.
 

PseuDohNom

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Currently retesting, looking strong
So increasing the reverse repo rate just as the TGA is running out of money seems to have kicked the can down the road... Until they need to start issuing more debt when the TGA runs dry. Instant liquidity crisis. The logic of American economics is astounding.
 

PseuDohNom

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I'm just waiting for BTC to make a higher high, so I can watch thousands of YouTubers tell me how we're hitting $300k by August.
 

Voicy

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Another article explaining rule 002 and its effects...expect a big dip in all cryptos, Tesla, Apple, etc. when the automated computers kick into gear:

Tomorrow is going to be a VERY interesting days in the markets...but when it all blows over, there are going to be juicy dips everywhere.

sauce

The proposal, identified as SR-NSCC-2021-002, was submitted by the National Securities Clearing Corp (NSCC) on March 5, but it will take immediate effect tomorrow, on Wednesday, June 23, 2021. The rule tweaks Supplemental Liquidity Deposit (SLD) requirements. As you may recall from previous coverage, the mission of clearing members, numbering at 4,000, is to provide liquidity into the stock market so that trades can be settled in due time and without market disruptions.

SLD changes are devised to tighten loose ends significantly:

  1. Drastic time-frame reduction for calculating and collecting deposits – from one month to daily or even hourly requirement verification.
  2. Each member will be scrutinized based on daily activity, instead of historic settlement activity.
  3. Granular, intraday scrutiny of SLD calculation and collection.
These calculations are conducted automatically by powerful computers and algorithms. After all, the Paperwork Crisis in the 1960s clearly demonstrated what happens when trading volume outpaces human capacity. Therefore, the new SLD rule shores up the ability for DTCC/NSCC to complete settlements on time and prevent liquidity crisis surprises.

In other words, heavily exposed market makers like Citadel Securities would have to cover their short-selling bets within a day, less they risk defaulting and have their assets frozen as outlined in the NSCC framework.

“If, after closing out and liquidating a defaulting Member’s positions, NSCC were to suffer a loss, that loss would first be satisfied by the amounts on deposit to the Clearing Fund and Eligible Clearing Fund Securities pledged from the defaulting Member”
Of course, the NSCC also has the authority to close any open positions of a defaulting member. Rule #2 stands out in particular as it invokes Citadel’s impressive list of FINRA violations. The Tokenist covered Citadel Securities extensively, both in terms of its history of market manipulation and its acutely conflicted ties to Robinhood brokerage, providing it with 43% of revenue for Q1 2021 via controversial payment for order flow (PFOF) business model.

With the new rule about to go live, the ability of market makers like Citadel to exert such market force will be greatly reduced due to their liquidity reduction – daily down payment collection will tie up their available capital. In turn, this translates to the reduction of open positions they can take, given all their other exposed short positions.

Here's also a video explaining the Repo market and it's implications, given the sudden spike... as well as what caused the housing crash of 2008.

 

Wary GOM

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Another article explaining rule 002 and its effects...expect a big dip in all cryptos, Tesla, Apple, etc. when the automated computers kick into gear:

Tomorrow is going to be a VERY interesting days in the markets...but when it all blows over, there are going to be juicy dips everywhere.
This makes sense and seems to be happening as predicted. From a buyers viewpoint, I am drooling over the prospect of nice dips. Now to my dilemma: if liquidity has indeed been drained too far then institutional investors won’t be able to buy and therefore get prices rising again. That will leave the individuals that are whales to get the market rising again.

If for no other reason, we might be in for quite a long wait before another rapid phase of price increases.
 

Voicy

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This makes sense and seems to be happening as predicted. From a buyers viewpoint, I am drooling over the prospect of nice dips. Now to my dilemma: if liquidity has indeed been drained too far then institutional investors won’t be able to buy and therefore get prices rising again. That will leave the individuals that are whales to get the market rising again.

If for no other reason, we might be in for quite a long wait before another rapid phase of price increases.
All fair points.

I'm quite happy to NOT have those hedge investors involved in BTC anymore...even if that means a lower or slower BTC price, as long as it removes the volatility that they've introduced.

Cutting the fat off means it can run without the FUD holding it back.
 
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