Personally I think that this year will be the final tipping point and by next year the masses will be attempting to destroy the ANC, vengeance is coming.
Would be nice to see but I am not sure. The poor voters are surprisingly tolerant of the ANC's failures, especially when they plod along and things don't really get worse. However due to their mismanagement of the economy and the Covid crisis things have gotten a lot worse. People are losing the little they had. I am seeing homeless camps start up all around us and hearing of more and more households merging.
When that happens which direction they jump is a little hard to predict and for each person it could be a different direction. Some of the options we know will happen:
1. ANC voters stop voting. A lot of the poor voice discontent by just not voting at all
2. Some will switch their vote. The older generation is far less likely to do this than the young but they are a shrinking percentage of the total. Vote changing is tantamount to treason to them so they tend to rather not vote. The young will unfortunately mostly switch to the EFF.
3. People will protest, and lawlessness in protests will continue to increase with people's frustration at having no money, opportunities, education or hope pushing them to taking what they want via looting.
Less certain options but possible:
- More splits in the ANC
- The ANC becoming more militant and authoritarian towards protests and dissent
- Increase in political violence
- Severe and violent Xenephobia towards African immigrants again
- Civil war
- Cape succession
The more severe the economic pain the more likely the extreme results come such as civil war and the country splitting up. If we hit hyperinflation I don't see how the Cape does not succeed.