Catalans vote to split from Spain amid violent police crackdown

[NarrowBandFtw]

Live feed of Catalan parliament in session: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9c_Bac-17Rk

 

[f2wohf]

The separatists just backtracked, saying that they are now open to dialogue even though the yes won.

 

[Swa]

Regarding this, I just read that 20 of the 34 rules of the electoral code were violated, which is an impressive failure by the Catalan government.

Which is actually rather irrelevant as the new movement doesn't recognise the old code. The only thing that technically matters is that the new movement in total regard it as legitimate.

Is this not as simple as getting more than 50% of the population to vote in favor of leaving? Surely once that happens, nothing else matters?

Thing is that the powers controlling them don't see it as legitimate and won't allow a legitimate one as well. Why independence is usually only achieved with violence when it becomes too inconvenient for the controlling powers to continue exerting their force.

Eish brush up on your stats. The 90% is a clear indicator of what the total population will vote.

Those that did not vote were most probably not voting fearing for violence from the Spanish police. You seem to forget that the Police tried to stop people from voting.

Exactly. If those people felt so strongly not to be independent as the ones that want to they would have tried to vote, unless they were physically prevented but that would fall on Spain.

The fact that 2 million people + 200 municipalities did not vote at all because is because the no voters agreed to not go vote at an illegal referendum.

If they did go vote, it would give legitimacy to the vote, which is the opposite of what the no voters want.

In addition, in 71 municipalities, there were more yes than voters, which shows it was clearly rigged.

Remember that the vote infringes 20 of the 34 rules of the electoral code and the ballot boxes were not transparent. Easiest thing to rig.

Actually that's nonsense. It would still not be legitimate under Spanish rule. I would say an equal number of yes voters couldn't vote. Statistics 101 - you apply a sufficient sample size to the whole. 2 million is sufficient to determine the will of the people. And why did 200 municipalities not get a chance to vote? Those would have affected people wanting to vote yes as well.

That’s fine when the vote is legal. This can’t apply at an illegal and rigged vote.

71 municipalities had more yes votes than voters.

Some people voted 4 times.

https://www.elconfidencial.com/espa...dades-votaciones-referendum-cataluna_1453255/

You keep repeating that but then also say 200 municipalities couldn't take part. So how many of people in those 200 made their way to others? It's not automatically rigged because it isn't seen as illegal.

800 people seen by doctors. Read the article I posted, read the statements.

4 required treatment and 2 were admitted in hospital, it’s hardly a massacre as the Catalan government wants to make it look like.

The anti riot policemen are trained to hurt without injuring people, hence the result.

Why the **** hurt anyone that tries to hold a peaceful referendum? That's just intimidation by the Spanish government and you're too blind to see it as such.

 

[konfab]

WhatsApp group blocked from which ANC and Òmnium mobilize their bases

Web www.cridademocracia.cat/whatsapp used by l as sovereignists entities Catalan National Assembly (ANC) and Omnium Cultural to summon their bases to take part in street rallies, was recently blocked by the Civil Guard by court order. This page allowed both organizations to give instructions to mobilize and organize thousands of independentistas "in case of necessity," according to the report of the armed Institute that delivered last Friday in the National Court.

Page is in Spanish.
https://politica.elpais.com/politica/2017/10/10/actualidad/1507631073_313664.html?id_externo_rsoc=TW_CM

blocked page is here:
http://www.cridademocracia.cat/whatsapp/

Full tyrannical mode TBH.

 

[C4Cat]

Actually that's nonsense. It would still not be legitimate under Spanish rule. I would say an equal number of yes voters couldn't vote. Statistics 101 - you apply a sufficient sample size to the whole. 2 million is sufficient to determine the will of the people. And why did 200 municipalities not get a chance to vote? Those would have affected people wanting to vote yes as well.

Another statistics genius who doesn't understand how random sampling works.
In order to make accurate generalizations based on a sample, the sample needs to be randomly selected or you cannot make any predictions or generalizations. The referendum was the exact opposite of random selection so no, it cannot be used to determine the will of the entire population.

 

[NarrowBandFtw]

Another statistics genius who doesn't understand how random sampling works

and why would you apply random sampling to the context at all? Typical voting legislation already restricts the sample to certain age groups with citizenship. For this particular referendum it is only natural to further restrict it to Catalans only and then there are external factors such as police brutality that further restrict the sample and is entirely out of one's control.

You'd be much better off focusing on / calculating the statistical significance of the sample to determine how strong the signal is that is being given. The sampling technique itself might well prove to be entirely insignificant, and given the sheer size of the sample the odds are pretty high that the technique had no material effect at all.

 

[konfab]

Another statistics genius who doesn't understand how random sampling works.
In order to make accurate generalizations based on a sample, the sample needs to be randomly selected or you cannot make any predictions or generalizations. The referendum was the exact opposite of random selection so no, it cannot be used to determine the will of the entire population.

Correct in a sense, however you can't dismiss it either.
Especially when you have a government beating people with batons if they dare to even participate in said referendum. Spain is violating all the rights for freedom of speech and freedom of association which would give better credibility to the data.

2 million people is still 2 million people and would represent about 35% of the population of catalonia. To me, that at least justifies a proper referendum on the matter.

 

[rietrot]

and why would you apply random sampling to the context at all? Typical voting legislation already restricts the sample to certain age groups with citizenship. For this particular referendum it is only natural to further restrict it to Catalans only and then there are external factors such as police brutality that further restrict the sample and is entirely out of one's control.

You'd be much better off focusing on / calculating the statistical significance of the sample to determine how strong the signal is that is being given. The sampling technique itself might well prove to be entirely insignificant, and given the sheer size of the sample the odds are pretty high that the technique had no material effect at all.

I've already done this exercise earlier in the thread and even offered to count all the unionist that protested the referendum (no matter if they are even citizens or eligible to vote) on the "No" side.
Leave still wins with an overwhelming landslide.

 

[C4Cat]

and why would you apply random sampling to the context at all? Typical voting legislation already restricts the sample to certain age groups with citizenship. For this particular referendum it is only natural to further restrict it to Catalans only and then there are external factors such as police brutality that further restrict the sample and is entirely out of one's control.

You'd be much better off focusing on / calculating the statistical significance of the sample to determine how strong the signal is that is being given. The sampling technique itself might well prove to be entirely insignificant, and given the sheer size of the sample the odds are pretty high that the technique had no material effect at all.

Read the post I was responding to - it's not the first time someone has said 'stats 101 - the referendum results can be generalised to represent the will of the people' and blah blah blah. No it can't - stats 101 is that a random sample of sufficient size can represent the trend or can be extrapolated to represent the greater population from which the sample was taken. The key thing though is that it must be a random sample or the results are meaningless outside of the sample group itself.

Obviously if the majority of people who wanted a referendum went to vote and the majority of people who didn't, didn't vote then the results are meaningless unless the sample size itself was over half to two thirds of the population in question. Which it wasn't in this case. Anti-independence voters largely boycotted the ballot - which had a reported turnout of only 43% - and there were several reports of irregularities (as you've pointed out).

 

[C4Cat]

Correct in a sense, however you can't dismiss it either.
Especially when you have a government beating people with batons if they dare to even participate in said referendum. Spain is violating all the rights for freedom of speech and freedom of association which would give better credibility to the data.

2 million people is still 2 million people and would represent about 35% of the population of catalonia. To me, that at least justifies a proper referendum on the matter.

No you can't dismiss it but you can't extrapolate the results and pretend it represents the will of the general population either.
A proper, legal and adjudicated referendum would give better results and would attract a far greater number of voters.
Catalonia cannot survive on it's own, without the support of Spain and greater Europe, so the exercise is pointless without that anyway.

 

[konfab]

Read the post I was responding to - it's not the first time someone has said 'stats 101 - the referendum results can be generalised to represent the will of the people' and blah blah blah. No it can't - stats 101 is that a random sample of sufficient size can represent the trend or can be extrapolated to represent the greater population from which the sample was taken. The key thing though is that it must be a random sample or the results are meaningless outside of the sample group itself.

Obviously if the majority of people who wanted a referendum went to vote and the majority of people who didn't, didn't vote then the results are meaningless unless the sample size itself was over half to two thirds of the population in question. Which it wasn't in this case. Anti-independence voters largely boycotted the ballot - which had a reported turnout of only 43% - and there were several reports of irregularities (as you've pointed out).

If you look at the opinion polls on the matter, the majority of people support it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catalan_independence

 

[konfab]

No you can't dismiss it but you can't extrapolate the results and pretend it represents the will of the general population either.
A proper, legal and adjudicated referendum would give better results and would attract a far greater number of voters.
Catalonia cannot survive on it's own, without the support of Spain and greater Europe, so the exercise is pointless without that anyway.

Which the Spanish government has been shooting down at every possible moment.

As for surviving...

They have a GDP per capita of €27,000 and a GDP of €200 billion.

To compare, South Africa has a GDP of about €236 billion. And we have been coping without the EU or Spain.

 

[NarrowBandFtw]

The key thing though is that it must be a random sample or the results are meaningless outside of the sample group itself.

Obviously if the majority of people who wanted a referendum went to vote and the majority of people who didn't, didn't vote then the results are meaningless unless the sample size itself was over half to two thirds of the population in question. Which it wasn't in this case. Anti-independence voters largely boycotted the ballot - which had a reported turnout of only 43% - and there were several reports of irregularities (as you've pointed out).

See that there is what I was gently pointing out, I find it somewhat ironic how you're getting some very basic stats stuff wrong while lambasting someone else's stats knowledge.

It helps when samples are random, but there is no law that dictates it has to be random. Numbers can be sufficiently reliable regardless of the sampling technique depending on the sample size, and no, you wouldn't need anywhere near two thirds sample size to confidently extrapolate an overwhelming trend. 43% is plenty with a 90%+ result in one direction.

You also have no sound statistical basis to assume abstain votes were largely "anti". Those individuals had the opportunity to vote no, they chose not to vote. Hence they removed themselves from the population entirely, you only need to concern yourself with those who voted and those who were eligible and keen to vote, but couldn't. Odds are if you correctly reduce the voting population along those lines, the sample size is much higher percentage wise than the already high enough 43%

 

[Polymathic]

Read the post I was responding to - it's not the first time someone has said 'stats 101 - the referendum results can be generalised to represent the will of the people' and blah blah blah. No it can't - stats 101 is that a random sample of sufficient size can represent the trend or can be extrapolated to represent the greater population from which the sample was taken. The key thing though is that it must be a random sample or the results are meaningless outside of the sample group itself.

Obviously if the majority of people who wanted a referendum went to vote and the majority of people who didn't, didn't vote then the results are meaningless unless the sample size itself was over half to two thirds of the population in question. Which it wasn't in this case. Anti-independence voters largely boycotted the ballot - which had a reported turnout of only 43% - and there were several reports of irregularities (as you've pointed out).

It's only 43% of the population that actually managed to vote , the 90 % yes votes seems to show that if the vote went about unimpeded the they would of got over 50% of the total voters voting "yes" mainly due to the Spanish Government's handling on the situation. All the Spanish Government had to do was tell the Catalans if they voted "Yes" Barcelona would be kicked out of La Liga they would of backed down.

 

[konfab]

Read the opinion poll. The vast majority of people wanted a proper referendum on the matter and the majority wanted independence.
http://ceo.gencat.cat/ceop/AppJava/loadFile;jsessionid=1BC025C2741B61CA8C2B9C7ADDCBDD53?fileId=25318&fileType=1

 

[C4Cat]

If you look at the opinion polls on the matter, the majority of people support it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catalan_independence

Yes, the opinion polls are more likely to be representative of the general population than the referendum

 

[C4Cat]

Which the Spanish government has been shooting down at every possible moment.

As for surviving...

They have a GDP per capita of €27,000 and a GDP of €200 billion.

To compare, South Africa has a GDP of about €236 billion. And we have been coping without the EU or Spain.

Different context, we aren't currently a part of the EU and don't owe Spain billions of Euros...
Perhaps they can survive but it wouldn't be a simple thing
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-41474674

The Catalan government owes €77bn (£68bn) at the last count, or 35.4% of Catalonia's GDP. Of that, €52bn is owed to the Spanish government.

In 2012, the Spanish government set up a special fund to provide cash to the regions, who were unable to borrow money on the international markets after the financial crisis. Catalonia has been by far the biggest beneficiary of this scheme, taking €67bn since it began.

Two-thirds of Catalonia's foreign exports go to the EU. It would need to reapply to become a member if it seceded from Spain - it wouldn't get in automatically or immediately.

And it would require all EU members to agree - including Spain.

 

[C4Cat]

See that there is what I was gently pointing out, I find it somewhat ironic how you're getting some very basic stats stuff wrong while lambasting someone else's stats knowledge.

It helps when samples are random, but there is no law that dictates it has to be random. Numbers can be sufficiently reliable regardless of the sampling technique depending on the sample size, and no, you wouldn't need anywhere near two thirds sample size to confidently extrapolate an overwhelming trend. 43% is plenty with a 90%+ result in one direction.

You also have no sound statistical basis to assume abstain votes were largely "anti". Those individuals had the opportunity to vote no, they chose not to vote. Hence they removed themselves from the population entirely, you only need to concern yourself with those who voted and those who were eligible and keen to vote, but couldn't. Odds are if you correctly reduce the voting population along those lines, the sample size is much higher percentage wise than the already high enough 43%

Statistics 101 - http://www.stat.yale.edu/Courses/1997-98/101/sample.htm

If you ask a sample of South Africans if our Zulu King should be recognised, but only ask Zulu people, you may get millions of people saying Yes, even 90%, but it would hardly be representative of the population. Numbers in sampling mean nothing if it's not randomised.

 

[NarrowBandFtw]

Numbers in sampling mean nothing if it's not randomised.

Patently and demonstrably false, you might wanna read through some stats 101 material in more detail. You conveniently ignore the statistically sound logic I put forth in favour of your "randomize or nothing" bullcrap mantra. I actually took stats at varsity level fyi, what you are saying is simply falsehood cloaked in some basic stats terminology. You are purposely or accidentally ignoring nuance.

 

[konfab]

Different context, we aren't currently a part of the EU and don't owe Spain billions of Euros...
Perhaps they can survive but it wouldn't be a simple thing

Spain is the last country on the face of this green earth to talk about debt and owing people money.