Cellular phone companies morph as the telecoms market changes

AirWolf

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Cell might change their minds if they can make decent profits over the next couple of years:) Sure VC have already invested R2bn over a number of years in their 3G rollout but they made R6bn profit in a single financial year. My point is that Cell C do not have the financial muscle to pull off a 3G rollout yet.
 

Syndyre

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Cell C won't be around in 5 years if they don't invest in 3G/HSDPA, Wimax or some other similar technology and that's the reality of it. Unless they're going to continue to focus at the bottom of the market then maybe they'll have a chance.
 

BobbyMac

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Cell C won't be around in 5 years if they don't invest in 3G/HSDPA, Wimax or some other similar technology and that's the reality of it. Unless they're going to continue to focus at the bottom of the market then maybe they'll have a chance.
The bottom of the market will always
a) be there and
b) need a 'Cell C' to cater to them.

The majority of South Africans are not living in cities and connected to the internet. The majority of South Africans live in informal settlements, have to walk to fetch their water, watch TV on a tiny tubed television but mostly listen to a radio and do not need or possibly even know what the Internet is. High speed internet connectivity is a prerequisite for business, but it's largely an unknown to the poor. Normal standard telecoms will go a long way in changing that landscape, but it's not gonna change dramatically in 5 years time.
 

bwana

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Cell C won't be around in 5 years if they don't invest in 3G/HSDPA, Wimax or some other similar technology and that's the reality of it. Unless they're going to continue to focus at the bottom of the market then maybe they'll have a chance.
Was just thinking that their network setup would be ideal for the current version of the iPhone. It would sure give them a boost.
 

Syndyre

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The bottom of the market will always
a) be there and
b) need a 'Cell C' to cater to them.

The majority of South Africans are not living in cities and connected to the internet. The majority of South Africans live in informal settlements, have to walk to fetch their water, watch TV on a tiny tubed television but mostly listen to a radio and do not need or possibly even know what the Internet is. High speed internet connectivity is a prerequisite for business, but it's largely an unknown to the poor. Normal standard telecoms will go a long way in changing that landscape, but it's not gonna change dramatically in 5 years time.

True but as technology develops calls will become cheaper over IP networks etc, even if the barriers to entry in terms of equipment prices are higher. Although I suppose Cell C could lower their prices accordingly. The people you talk about though have very little money to spend on communication. not a very profitable market to go after, as much as they might need a service.
 

Syndyre

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Was just thinking that their network setup would be ideal for the current version of the iPhone. It would sure give them a boost.

Its quite a high end, expensive phone, I'm not sure how many people would want to spend that much and end up on Cell C, I know I wouldn't.
 

bwana

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Its quite a high end, expensive phone, I'm not sure how many people would want to spend that much and end up on Cell C, I know I wouldn't.
People wondered the very same thing about going to AT&T and look what happened.
 

BobbyMac

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The people you talk about though have very little money to spend on communication. not a very profitable market to go after, as much as they might need a service.
True, yet in our cellular sales our biggest sales (mostly prepaid) are to the lowest income groups. Almost all the poor people in the country own a cellphone, or have access to a cellphone in their family.
 

bwana

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AT&T isn't as bad as Cell C is it? :eek:
There were arguably better networks - the largest, Verizon (part owned by vodafone) wouldn't bend to Apples demands. Maybe Apple's primary requirement is a willingness to capitulate and if MTN and Vodacom arent going to play ball then who knows.

Pure speculation but what isnt these days wrt to the iPhone in SA. :)
 

Syndyre

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True, yet in our cellular sales our biggest sales (mostly prepaid) are to the lowest income groups. Almost all the poor people in the country own a cellphone, or have access to a cellphone in their family.

I just wonder what the ARPU is for that segment though? It doesn't really matter at the moment if its low because they also consume relatively little in terms of network resources and the network is used extensively by other people with higher incomes, but if the network was being used only by them it wouldn't seem to be very profitable, although through sheer numbers it may be, particularly considering the density of townships etc.
 

Syndyre

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There were arguably better networks - the largest, Verizon (part owned by vodafone) wouldn't bend to Apples demands. Maybe Apple's primary requirement is a willingness to capitulate and if MTN and Vodacom arent going to play ball then who knows.

Pure speculation but what isnt these days wrt to the iPhone in SA. :)

Anything's possible, although I don't think it would do the Apple brand much good to be associated with Cell C and their inevitable problems. As long as the iPhone doesn't have 3G I think MTN/Cell C are the more likely options though, Vodacom has focused more on 3G/HSDPA with very little EDGE coverage, particularly in Gauteng, and browsing the net over GPRS is just painful.
 

BobbyMac

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I just wonder what the ARPU is for that segment though? It doesn't really matter at the moment if its low because they also consume relatively little in terms of network resources and the network is used extensively by other people with higher incomes, but if the network was being used only by them it wouldn't seem to be very profitable, although through sheer numbers it may be, particularly considering the density of townships etc.

SMS is by far the greatest contributor (in our figures) to airtime usage by low income groups. Bear in mind that services such as Mxit, etc are not used by lower income groups as prolifically as middle and upper income groups. In respect to VOIP - I am of the opinion that a low cost Wimax (or even WiFi link 1, link 2, link 3) enabled phone would do extremely well in this country - especially in the township areas. The issue is licensing and the red tape around regulation in this country, but technically such a service can be put in place very quickly and at th distinct cost of the cellular companies.

I think the local cellular markets are very worried that these things start taking off here - as effectively besides for the handset costs and maintenance costs involved, the actual "airtime" costs are incredibly lower than that of GSM. Their key to survival with the entry of such a product and service in this country will depend purely on how much government protection is granted. What I don't understand is why Cell C hasn't cottoned onto the idea yet.
 

Tns

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cell will have to invest in 3G at least to survive.
 

BobbyMac

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cell will have to invest in 3G at least to survive.
I don't believe they have to - it's not their market. The majority of Cell C customers are Prepaid. MTN and Vodacom have the contract market secured, and as already elaborated in detail, the lower end of the market (where Cell C is playing) does not need or possibly even want 3G.
 

AirWolf

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I don't believe they have to - it's not their market. The majority of Cell C customers are Prepaid. MTN and Vodacom have the contract market secured, and as already elaborated in detail, the lower end of the market (where Cell C is playing) does not need or possibly even want 3G.

Exactly - were will you find a pc user in need of 3G for serious data usage living in a rural area?
 

bekdik

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Isn't calling the cellular companies a bunch of morphies a bit non pc? :D
 
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