Christmas maths question backlash

Mike Hoxbig said:
Is it a certainty, likely or impossible that human males have penises? That's not probability mate, that's a rephrased true/false question with a 3rd option added to give the illusion that it's a probability question. Christmas is either on the 25/12, or it's not. A coin will either land on heads or tails. A light switch is either on or off. etc.

If you are given 3 people in a room, and are asked to calculate what the odds are that one of them was born in August, that is probability.
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It's likely, not a certainty (the penis one). John Bobbit is the spanner in your works, for example.

Coin could land on edge. It remains a (very basic, very easy) statistical language question, but it's NOT "when is christmas".

Don't forget that math lit is really aimed at people who battle with basic mathematical concepts. IE, don't assume ANYTHING about these folks' abilities.
 
Sinbad said:
It's likely, not a certainty (the penis one). John Bobbit is the spanner in your works, for example.

Coin could land on edge. It remains a (very basic, very easy) statistical language question, but it's NOT "when is christmas".

Don't forget that math lit is really aimed at people who battle with basic mathematical concepts. IE, don't assume ANYTHING about these folks' abilities.
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The penis one is a case of semantics.

I'd like to see a case of a coin landing on its edge on a flat surface. In theory it is possible, but there is no documented case. When flipped, it's angular velocity will always ensure that it lands on heads or tails.

A light switch will always be on or off.

Christmas is either on the 25th or it isn't.

There is no likely. And if you're going to include that option, then you'd need to include an unlikely event as well.
 
Mike Hoxbig said:
The penis one is a case of semantics.

I'd like to see a case of a coin landing on its edge on a flat surface. In theory it is possible, but there is no documented case. When flipped, it's angular velocity will always ensure that it lands on heads or tails.

A light switch will always be on or off.

Christmas is either on the 25th or it isn't.

There is no likely. And if you're going to include that option, then you'd need to include an unlikely event as well.
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The question is about semantics :) That's the point of it.
 
Mike Hoxbig said:
Then where is the unlikely event in the question? It's clearly a true/false question parading as a probability one.
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Unlikely is that 25 december is hijacked as Mandela Day or something.
You can't say in all certainty that christmas in SA will ALWAYS be on 25 december. WHat if islamic fundamentalists take over and remove christmas from the calendar?
 
Sinbad said:
Unlikely is that 25 december is hijacked as Mandela Day or something.
You can't say in all certainty that christmas in SA will ALWAYS be on 25 december. WHat if islamic fundamentalists take over and remove christmas from the calendar?
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It doesn't specify Christmas in SA. And there is no unlikely event specified in the question. As you said, semantics ;)
 
Sinbad said:
Unlikely is that 25 december is hijacked as Mandela Day or something.
You can't say in all certainty that christmas in SA will ALWAYS be on 25 december. WHat if islamic fundamentalists take over and remove christmas from the calendar?
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But the question doesn't ask whether it will always be? The question could be a lot more complicated, and could be one of probability. But as the question stands, and the answers that are expected are not ones of probability, methinks.
 
Mike Hoxbig said:
It doesn't specify Christmas in SA. And there is no unlikely event specified in the question. As you said, semantics ;)
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The question read: “State whether the following event is certain, most likely or impossible: Christmas Day is on December 25 in South Africa.”

OrbitalDawn said:
But the question doesn't ask whether it will always be? The question could be a lot more complicated, and could be one of probability. But as the question stands, and the answers that are expected are not ones of probability, methinks.
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It doesn't specify a timeframe. So, IMHO, you cannot say it's a certainty, as christmas day is not immutable throughout history and the future...?
 
@Sinbad


this is nothing about the probability of xmas day is on 25th Dec or not. it is a fact.

you can't find any "alternative" day beside 25th Dec, so why it is a "probability" question?

for example, will the sun rise from east tomorrow morning? is that a "probability" question? absolutely not, everyone knows the sun will rise from east every morning. Will you question me that may be a "probability" from west, south or north? so does that mean the probability of the sun will rise from east next morning is 25%? probability is about the past, it is not about how many possible situations. For coin problem, if the coin never has a chance of my past 10 times throws on edge, then the probability on edge is 0% for my 11th throw.
 
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Sinbad said:
The question read: “State whether the following event is certain, most likely or impossible: Christmas Day is on December 25 in South Africa.”
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Sorry, I may not have seen that. But there is still no unlikely event
Sinbad said:
It doesn't specify a timeframe. So, IMHO, you cannot say it's a certainty, as christmas day is not immutable throughout history and the future...?
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The question read: “State whether the following event is certain, most likely or impossible: Christmas Day is on December 25 in South Africa.”
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The hint is in the bold. They're not say that it was, or will be, on that date.
 
DreamKing said:
@Sinbad


this is nothing about the probability of xmas day is on 25th Dec or not. it is a fact.

you can't find any "alternative" day beside 25th Dec, so why it is a "probability" question?
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Read my previous post.

And by the way, certainty is ALSO a probability, P=1
 
Mike Hoxbig said:
Sorry, I may not have seen that. But there is still no unlikely event


The hint is in the bold. They're not say that it was, or will be, on that date.
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I see your point.
So it's a badly phrased question, but not for the reasons people seem to think.
They should have specified a particular instance of the recurring holiday - ie Christmas day this year
 
DreamKing said:
no, it is not, I don't need to read it is because it is not a "probability" question.
if you insist, then you don't know what is "probability".
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If you don't know that certainty = P=1, which is a probability, then you don't know what probability is.
 
Sinbad said:
I see your point.
So it's a badly phrased question, but not for the reasons people seem to think.
They should have specified a particular instance of the recurring holiday - ie Christmas day this year
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That's what we're saying. The question as it stands is not one of probability, even if it were to remain that simple.
 
The scientific study of probability is a modern development. Gambling shows that there has been an interest in quantifying the ideas of probability for millennia, but exact mathematical descriptions arose much later. There are reasons of course, for the slow development of the mathematics of probability. Whereas games of chance provided the impetus for the mathematical study of probability, fundamental issues are still obscured by the superstitions of gamblers.
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability

if it does not have uncertainty, how that can be "certainty ". :eek:
 
DreamKing said:
excuse me???
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I'll say it again.
If you don't know that certainty = P=1, which is a probability, then you don't know what probability is.

A certainty is an event with a probability of 1.
 
Mike Hoxbig said:
That's what we're saying. The question as it stands is not one of probability, even if it were to remain that simple.
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Yes, it is. It's just a very very very easy one. Which is, as I said before, typical of a SA matric maths lit paper :P
 
Sinbad said:
I'll say it again.
If you don't know that certainty = P=1, which is a probability, then you don't know what probability is.

A certainty is an event with a probability of 1.
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you don't have a very basic logic here. do you know that? read my post above.

=>
The scientific study of probability is a modern development. Gambling shows that there has been an interest in quantifying the ideas of probability for millennia, but exact mathematical descriptions arose much later. There are reasons of course, for the slow development of the mathematics of probability. Whereas games of chance provided the impetus for the mathematical study of probability, fundamental issues are still obscured by the superstitions of gamblers.
Click to expand...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability

if it does not have uncertainty, how that can be "certainty ".
 
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