Climate Change Just Changed

Zoomzoom

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You know what REALLY gets me is that people who have been saying the whole CO2 argument was an illogical load of bollocks and that other factors are the problem have been ignored and derided for YEARS. This is the entire flipping problem with the way scientists think - they are actually very closed to any argument against their accepted position. Instead of going 'hmm we need to look at that' they draw the wagons into a circle and close ranks. This is NOT helpful.
 

Sl8er

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You know what REALLY gets me is that people who have been saying the whole CO2 argument was an illogical load of bollocks and that other factors are the problem have been ignored and derided for YEARS. This is the entire flipping problem with the way scientists think - they are actually very closed to any argument against their accepted position. Instead of going 'hmm we need to look at that' they draw the wagons into a circle and close ranks. This is NOT helpful.

Yup.
Science used to be all about asking questions -about anything- and allowing *people to research, said questions, without being ridiculed or shut down.

EDIT:
*other scientists
 
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Arthur

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That's because, since Durkheim, everything is political, including science. They are all projections of power and narratives of control. That way of deconstructing all reality is omnicorrosive, and now the revolution is eating its children. Very sad.
 

Zoomzoom

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That's because, since Durkheim, everything is political, including science. They are all projections of power and narratives of control. That way of deconstructing all reality is omnicorrosive, and now the revolution is eating its children. Very sad.

I agree there is some element of money / power / control involved - like the outcome of the research is far too much determined by who paid for the research, but the world has been getting increasingly polarised for a long time.

Vaccines - there is no position in which you can point out that there in fact real issues with the safety of vaccines - listed in the side-effects and recorded by the CDC in the US - you are either pro-vaccine or an anti-vaxxer and along with those positions you are deemed to be pro-science and right thinking or anti-science and ignorant and wrong thinking. You just can't be pro-vaccination, pro-science and still be concerned about vaccine safety.

Climate Change - again totally polarised - you are either a blind adherent to the stated 'scientific' position or you are a climate change denier and probably walk with your knuckles dragging on the ground grunting monosyllabically. There is no position in which you can look objectively at some of the positions and say 'hey that doesn't make sense'.

Evolution - same problem. You are either for or against. Science or religion. There is no way you can be scientifically orientated but question the holes in evolution. Once again you are expected to take the entire package on blind faith that the almighty scientists are absolutely perfectly correct ... but say that hey I didn't sign up for faith in science, but evidence and the evidence ... she has holes ... and you are immediately assumed to be arguing for religion and are automatically wrong.

It is really annoying and detrimental to discovering real answers and addressing real problems.
 
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Sl8er

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I agree there is some element of money / power / control involved - like the outcome of the research is far too much determined by who paid for the research, but the world has been getting increasingly polarised for a long time.

Vaccines - there is no position in which you can point out that there in fact real issues with the safety of vaccines - listed in the side-effects and recorded by the CDC in the US - you are either pro-vaccine or an anti-vaxxer and along with those positions you are deemed to be pro-science and right thinking or anti-science and ignorant and wrong thinking. You just can't be pro-vaccination, pro-science and still be concerned about vaccine safety.

Climate Change - again totally polarised - you are either a blind adherent to the stated 'scientific' position or you are a climate change denier and probably walk with your knuckles dragging on the ground grunting monosyllabically. There is no position in which you can look objectively at some of the positions and say 'hey that doesn't make sense'.

Evolution - same problem. You are either for or against. Science or religion. There is no way you can be scientifically orientated but question the holes in evolution. Once again you are expected to take the entire package on blind faith that the almighty scientists are absolutely perfectly correct ... but say that hey I didn't sign up for faith in science, but evidence and the evidence ... she has holes ... and you are immediately assumed to be arguing for religion and are automatically wrong.

It is really annoying and detrimental to discovering real answers and addressing real problems.

Agreed.
 

c3n0byt3

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I tend to view youtube videos that begin by saying, "these are the facts" in a suspicious light. The beginning of the second vid is even worse.
It is a tendency to gloss over details; to cherry pick, as many criticize people in the "climate game".
And more in defense of the climate scientists, it is incredibly difficult to convey aspects of a global system in short paper, much less on global scale averages.
Lets wait for the CMIP6 runs and hope science communication has improved since then.
Better than hoping that non-scientists will understand the uncertainty in every aspect of the new breed of models....
 

OrbitalDawn

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[video=youtube;17mKIKGEF5E]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=17mKIKGEF5E[/video]
 

Zoomzoom

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I tend to view youtube videos that begin by saying, "these are the facts" in a suspicious light. The beginning of the second vid is even worse.
It is a tendency to gloss over details; to cherry pick, as many criticize people in the "climate game".
And more in defense of the climate scientists, it is incredibly difficult to convey aspects of a global system in short paper, much less on global scale averages.
Lets wait for the CMIP6 runs and hope science communication has improved since then.
Better than hoping that non-scientists will understand the uncertainty in every aspect of the new breed of models....

yes but you'd think that knowing the models are notoriously unreliable scientists would avoid making definitive doom and gloom statements, but they don't. And then they shoot down anyone who dares to suggest that just maybe it ain't quite that way. Which leads one to believe that there is an agenda / money at play here which is using climate change as a vehicle for other goals. Certainly all the emphasis on carbon emissions etc is doing absolutely squat to address the issues anyone and everyone can see are issues - plastic pollution in the oceans, over-fishing, deforestation, desertification, industrial pollution .... etc etc etc.

Industry is by-and-large being protected by the yelling about Climate Change and very little is being done to actually address the real issues you'd have to be a blithering idiot not to see.
 

konfab

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I agree there is some element of money / power / control involved - like the outcome of the research is far too much determined by who paid for the research, but the world has been getting increasingly polarised for a long time.

Vaccines - there is no position in which you can point out that there in fact real issues with the safety of vaccines - listed in the side-effects and recorded by the CDC in the US - you are either pro-vaccine or an anti-vaxxer and along with those positions you are deemed to be pro-science and right thinking or anti-science and ignorant and wrong thinking. You just can't be pro-vaccination, pro-science and still be concerned about vaccine safety.

Climate Change - again totally polarised - you are either a blind adherent to the stated 'scientific' position or you are a climate change denier and probably walk with your knuckles dragging on the ground grunting monosyllabically. There is no position in which you can look objectively at some of the positions and say 'hey that doesn't make sense'.

Evolution - same problem. You are either for or against. Science or religion. There is no way you can be scientifically orientated but question the holes in evolution. Once again you are expected to take the entire package on blind faith that the almighty scientists are absolutely perfectly correct ... but say that hey I didn't sign up for faith in science, but evidence and the evidence ... she has holes ... and you are immediately assumed to be arguing for religion and are automatically wrong.

It is really annoying and detrimental to discovering real answers and addressing real problems.

There are some differences between those topics though
1) Vaccines can have their validity proved through clinical trial and experimentation. Ditto for evolution. This is impossible to do for climate change as we don't have a dual earth to test the theory with.
2) Evolution and the arguments that usually criticise it end up being people who haven't bothered to understand it. This also goes for 99.99% of the criticisms I have seen people on the atheistic side of the argument make of the bible and religion. I doubt whether people like Richard Dawkins and Sam Harris have actually tried to understand what religion tries to teach people.

Which leaves climate change. I have a couple of issues with the theory ranging from the actions of the people who support it to the ways to mitigate it. But the more "pure" argument I have is the following: people who support climate change and argue for its validity never provide a condition that would prove its invalidity. You take the current hurricane season at the moment, everyone is going blue in the face about how it is climate change that is causing it, but it isn't climate change when people get weather they want. If we have a spell of nice weather, climate change isn't to blame. This is logically incoherent for a theory that is meant to describe the climate, not just the parts of the climate we don't want.
So all I want is two things: a set of conditions in the near future that will prove the current theory to be correct and a set of conditions in the near future that will prove the current theory to be incorrect. That is putting your money where your mouth is.
 

Sl8er

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I don't understand...no one said that global warming isn't happening...the only thing -that's been discussed and argued to death- is the question on how much of it is CO2's fault....

Obviously there have been sensationalist headlines -even says so in the first 13 seconds of the first clip.
Again, the video I posted nowhere denies climate change -and it even states that. (Even the title of the first one says "Carbon Science Just Changed" )
I also don't see him (Ben Davidson) say that we can ignore everything and keep pumping CO2 into the atmosphere now...so....
*shrug*
 

Zoomzoom

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There are some differences between those topics though
1) Vaccines can have their validity proved through clinical trial and experimentation.

There is no question about the validity of or necessity for vaccines, what there is a question about is the safety of vaccines. Everyone seems to think that the benefits outweigh the risks and secondary to that the risks are lower than some other drugs. There are two problems with this. 1. The notion of there being 'acceptable' deaths kind of flies in the face of wanting to give every one vaccines to save lives. 2. There are no acceptable deaths when it comes to children. If the goal is to vaccinate every child on the planet then there darn well needs to be zero risk of death.

This is the prevailing attitude "Any discussion of the true risks of vaccination should be balanced by acknowledgment of the well-established benefits of vaccines in preventing disease, disability and deaths from infectious diseases." Try telling a parent whose child just died from a vaccine related incident ... 'well your child's death was just an unfortunate statistic and needs to be weighed against the well-established benefits of vaccination'.

3. While some risk is acceptable with other medications because no-one is suggesting that every person on earth is given those medications without the option of refusal (while one can theoretically refuse a vaccination, try getting a child into school, or travel without them). In addition when other medications are given doctors and pharmacists explain the risks, tell you what reactions to look out for, and there is a helpful pamphlet in the box which also tells you what the side-effects and risks are.

Although "Healthcare providers can take specific actions to help prevent adverse reactions, including proper screening for contraindications and precautions and observing a 15-minute waiting period after vaccinating to prevent fall-related injuries from syncope." there are several problems with this - a. no-one does it b. this does not help with any reactions after leaving the clinic c. does not inform the person / parent about any other complications that may arise. And the list of those complications is rather long.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/00046738.htm - much too long to list easily. Did you know ANY of these reactions were possible? Has anyone EVER told you that there were side-effects associated with vaccines, some affecting as many as 15% of people vaccinated? THIS is the issue. Vaccines are treated like this super-safe thing everyone just has done, and the medical profession does NOT conduct itself in the same manner as it does with other medications where there is a responsibility to inform.

Compare this list of side-effects from the NHS -

http://www.nhs.uk/Conditions/vaccinations/Pages/reporting-side-effects.aspx

With this list from the CDC:

https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vac-gen/side-effects.htm

See how downplayed the side-effects are? Makes it seem like nothing worse than a bit of pain, and a mild fever can result. And not only that, but you have to LOOK for that list. You are not routinely informed of even their downplayed list. The medical profession is putting children's lives at risk (admittedly a small risk but seriously if it is YOUR child at risk, you don't care how small the risk is, especially if your child becomes that statistic) and not acting with same level of care and responsibility it does with any other medication.



There are some differences between those topics though
1) Vaccines can have their validity proved through clinical trial and experimentation. Ditto for evolution. ...
2) Evolution and the arguments that usually criticise it end up being people who haven't bothered to understand it. This also goes for 99.99% of the criticisms I have seen people on the atheistic side of the argument make of the bible and religion. I doubt whether people like Richard Dawkins and Sam Harris have actually tried to understand what religion tries to teach people.

I would truly love to see those clinic trials and experiments that PROVE evolution. FYI there aren't any. There are many that have tried, but none actually do. At best all they prove is adaptation. There is also no evidence in the fossil record - again evidence of adaption, but no evidence of evolution. There are no intermediary species. And there is absolute zero evidence of one species turning into another species. There is no evidence of evolutionary drive at work producing new species from the ocean, from ponds, from anywhere on earth currently. The answer is always 'oh but evolution takes places over such a long time scale it isn't evident' which is absolute rubbish. IF evolution is true, environmental pressure WILL produce new species constantly. At any given moment one should see a range of organisms at various stages of evolution, in a continuous process of ... well ... evolution .. with new species emerging, some species in a process of change, some stable populations, and some dying populations. But that is not what you see, what you do see is stable populations under threat from humans. And there is another problem with evolution - what the hell are we worried about if species die out - if evolution is true there are any number of new species just waiting for a niche to open up. We are actually helping diversity and the production of new species by putting nature under pressure. You can't have it both ways. There are holes you can drive a Mack truck through in the theory of evolution.

There are some differences between those topics though
Which leaves climate change. I have a couple of issues with the theory ranging from the actions of the people who support it to the ways to mitigate it. But the more "pure" argument I have is the following: people who support climate change and argue for its validity never provide a condition that would prove its invalidity. You take the current hurricane season at the moment, everyone is going blue in the face about how it is climate change that is causing it, but it isn't climate change when people get weather they want. If we have a spell of nice weather, climate change isn't to blame. This is logically incoherent for a theory that is meant to describe the climate, not just the parts of the climate we don't want.
So all I want is two things: a set of conditions in the near future that will prove the current theory to be correct and a set of conditions in the near future that will prove the current theory to be incorrect. That is putting your money where your mouth is.

I honestly don't care for all the hype about climate change. The fact is that the climate has undergone dramatic changes in the past, and will undoubtedly in the future. The question is really about pollution. We ARE polluting our environment to levels dangerous to our continued existence on this planet. And Mars exploration aside - we are stuck on this rock for the foreseeable future so it would behoove us to STFU about stupid rubbish and actually DO SOMETHING about cleaning up our own goddamn mess.
 
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OrbitalDawn

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I don't understand...no one said that global warming isn't happening...the only thing -that's been discussed and argued to death- is the question on how much of it is CO2's fault....

Obviously there have been sensationalist headlines -even says so in the first 13 seconds of the first clip.
Again, the video I posted nowhere denies climate change -and it even states that. (Even the title of the first one says "Carbon Science Just Changed" )
I also don't see him (Ben Davidson) say that we can ignore everything and keep pumping CO2 into the atmosphere now...so....
*shrug*

"No one" said that? Really? :)

Anyway, it's just a piece based on the study and some of the reactions to it. His channel is pretty good, you should check it out.
 

Sl8er

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"No one" said that? Really? :)

Anyway, it's just a piece based on the study and some of the reactions to it. His channel is pretty good, you should check it out.

Ha!
You got me!
:D :p

I meant "no one" in the clip :D

Cool thanks, subscribed!
 

konfab

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I would truly love to see those clinic trials and experiments that PROVE evolution. FYI there aren't any. There are many that have tried, but none actually do. At best all they prove is adaptation. There is also no evidence in the fossil record - again evidence of adaption, but no evidence of evolution. There are no intermediary species. And there is absolute zero evidence of one species turning into another species. There is no evidence of evolutionary drive at work producing new species from the ocean, from ponds, from anywhere on earth currently. The answer is always 'oh but evolution takes places over such a long time scale it isn't evident' which is absolute rubbish. IF evolution is true, environmental pressure WILL produce new species constantly. At any given moment one should see a range of organisms at various stages of evolution, in a continuous process of ... well ... evolution .. with new species emerging, some species in a process of change, some stable populations, and some dying populations. But that is not what you see, what you do see is stable populations under threat from humans. And there is another problem with evolution - what the hell are we worried about if species die out - if evolution is true there are any number of new species just waiting for a niche to open up. We are actually helping diversity and the production of new species by putting nature under pressure. You can't have it both ways. There are holes you can drive a Mack truck through in the theory of evolution.

From wikipedia:
Evolution is change in the heritable characteristics of biological populations over successive generations. Evolutionary processes give rise to biodiversity at every level of biological organisation, including the levels of species, individual organisms, and molecules.
That is the definition of evolution I am using.
Remember when I said:
Evolution and the arguments that usually criticise it end up being people who haven't bothered to understand it.
You are a textbook case...

There is a lovely experiment with e coli
The E. coli long-term evolution experiment (LTEE) is an ongoing study in experimental evolution led by Richard Lenski that has been tracking genetic changes in 12 initially identical populations of asexual Escherichia coli bacteria since 24 February 1988.[2] The populations reached the milestone of 50,000 generations in February 2010 and 66,000 in November 2016.[3] Lenski performed the 10,000th transfer of the experiment on March 13, 2017.[4]


Over the course of the experiment, Lenski and his colleagues have reported a wide array of phenotypic and genotypic changes in the evolving populations. These have included changes that have occurred in all 12 populations and others that have only appeared in one or a few populations. For example, all 12 populations showed a similar pattern of rapid improvement in fitness that decelerated over time, faster growth rates, and increased cell size. Half of the populations have evolved defects in DNA repair that have caused mutator phenotypes marked by elevated mutation rates. The most striking adaptation reported so far is the evolution of aerobic growth on citrate, which is unusual in E. coli, in one population at some point between generations 31,000 and 31,500
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/E._coli_long-term_evolution_experiment

If I want to make it simple for you: if you live long enough to have kids and they reach maturity, you are an evolved form of your parents. That is evolution in a sentence. If you snam you nuts in a car door because you thought it would be cool, guess what. You have just removed the behaviour that led you to that point from the gene pool.

Lets make this simple.
You give me a nice concise list of numbered arguments with sources citing your problem and this evening I will explain every single one of them to you.
 

SlinkyMike

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There is no question about the validity of or necessity for vaccines, what there is a question about is the safety of vaccines. Everyone seems to think that the benefits outweigh the risks...

Having probably not lived through fatal measles epidemics or seen rooms full of people in iron lungs it's easy to think this way, speak to the older generation and try to use that perspective.

Here is a famous account of losing a child to measles: http://www.roalddahl.com/roald-dahl/timeline/1960s/november-1962

Those diseases are all but eradicated now (measles is seeing a resurgence in certain localities due to the concentration of antivax kooks in those areas.)

The benefits, with that perspective in mind overwhelmingly outweigh the risks.

If you think that's not the case then you simply lack the perspective to understand your privilege.
 

Sl8er

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*cough*Climate-Change-and-new-developments-not-a-vaccines-thread*cough*

:whistling:
 

Zoomzoom

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From wikipedia:

That is the definition of evolution I am using.
Remember when I said:

You are a textbook case...

There is a lovely experiment with e coli

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/E._coli_long-term_evolution_experiment

If I want to make it simple for you: if you live long enough to have kids and they reach maturity, you are an evolved form of your parents. That is evolution in a sentence. If you snam you nuts in a car door because you thought it would be cool, guess what. You have just removed the behaviour that led you to that point from the gene pool.

Lets make this simple.
You give me a nice concise list of numbered arguments with sources citing your problem and this evening I will explain every single one of them to you.

but the point still remains that bacteria make more of the same kind of bacteria, giraffe's make more giraffe's and so on.

And typically you do not address the issue of new species. Evolution is not a static thing that occurs in these sporadic moments throughout prehistory. If it is as stated it is a continual and ongoing process that INCLUDES new species, not simply adaptation.
 
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