Climate change: New Zealand's plan to tax cow and sheep burps

[Paulsie]

effectively it's about how did commodity prices rise/fall relative to earnings.
For the same 8 hours of work today I can buy more things than for those 8 hours in 1970. i.e. resources relative to labour became more abundant.

Meanwhile in the real world..

U.S. Standard of Living Has Fallen More Than 50%: Opinion

Protectionism coupled with a flat wealth tax and a four-day work week could genuinely stimulate our economies.

www.thestreet.com

Using the year 2000 as the numerical base from which to "zero" all of the numbers, real wages peaked in 1970 at around $20/hour. Today the average worker makes $8.50/hour -- more than 57% less than in 1970. And since the average wage directly determines the standard of living of our society, we can see that the average standard of living in the U.S. has plummeted by over 57% over a span of 40 years.

Real wages have been falling since the 1970s and living standards are not about to recover - IER

31 January 2014 Two pieces of research published today (31 January 2014) show that real wages have been falling since Thatcher's era in the 1980s, while weak economic recovery under the Coalition does not mean that living standards will recover just yet.

www.ier.org.uk

 

[Nicodeamus]

Exactly. The Simon Index is about the prices of commodities, not about how much there is.

The price of a commodity reflects it's availability.
It's not about the amount of resources in the ground, it's about the ability to extract it (the price of energy in a sense).

The amount of known oil reserves are higher today than ever before.

Global oil reserves volume in billion barrels 2020 | Statista

Between 1990 and 2011, the volume of global oil reserves increased significantly from just over 1 billion barrels in 1990 to nearly 1.7 billion.

www.statista.com

On Uranium

Uranium mining - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Current reserves of uranium are about 5.3 million tons. Theoretically, 4.5 billion tons of uranium are available from sea water at about 10 times the current price of uranium.

 

[Nicodeamus]

allows us to measure the cost of resources in terms of human labor. We find that, in terms of global average hourly income, commodity prices fell by 64.7 percent between 1980 and 2017. Second, the price elasticity of population (PEP) allows us to measure sensitivity of resource availability to population growth. We find that the time‐price of commodities declined by 0.934 percent for every 1 percent increase in the world’s population over the same time period. Third, we develop the Simon Abundance Framework, which uses the PEP values to distinguish between different degrees of resource abundance, from decreasing abundance at one end to superabundance at the other end. Considering that the time‐price of commodities decreased at a faster proportional rate than population increased, we find that humanity is experiencing superabundance.

https://www.cato.org/policy-analysis/simon-abundance-index-new-way-measure-availability-resources

Efficient resource usage has increased faster than the rate of consumption, i.e we have more now than ever before.

Another way to think of it is that once a country researches a certain development level, like full housing, all that is needed is maintenance, i.e resource usage falls. Incidentally fertility rates have also been falling.

 

[Cosmik Debris]

The price of a commodity reflects it's availability.
It's not about the amount of resources in the ground, it's about the ability to extract it (the price of energy in a sense).

The amount of known oil reserves are higher today than ever before.

Global oil reserves volume in billion barrels 2020 | Statista

Between 1990 and 2011, the volume of global oil reserves increased significantly from just over 1 billion barrels in 1990 to nearly 1.7 billion.

www.statista.com

Uranium mining - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

So what? Are the resources infinite as you claim?

 

[Cosmik Debris]

Incidentally fertility rates have also been falling.

Yet population growth is exponential...

 

["D"]

New Zealand has unveiled a plan to tax sheep and cattle burps in a bid to tackle one of the country's biggest sources of greenhouse gases.

Isn't this worse?

 

[Nicodeamus]

Yet population growth is exponential...

Nope, it fallows a normal distribution, once fertility peaks the curve inflects. The UN predicts that the world population won't ever double. Also the most children to be alive is in this generation.

Here is a good video explaining the stats.

If you add all the humans in the world together their collective footprint will be the size of new york. Most of the world is empty.

 

[Nicodeamus]

So what? Are the resources infinite as you claim?

If the price kees falling then it implies that we have more access to resources...

Think of resources as a flux and not a stock, then it makes sense. Water is a good example. A single water reserve can deplete, but the amount of H20 since the bigbang is constant.

I.e. it's about our ability to deliver clean water. If our ponds dry up, we can always recycle water or we can desalinate. What links them all together is energy. I.e. if the price of energy drops (we get better at extracting it) then the rest becomes secondary.

 

[Cosmik Debris]

Nope, it fallows a normal distribution, once fertility peaks the curve inflects. The UN predicts that the world population won't ever double. Also the most children to be alive is in this generation.

BS The world population increased from 1 billion in 1800 to 7.9 billion today. The world population growth rate declined from 2.2% per year 50 years ago to 1.0% per year.

World Population Growth

When and why did the world population grow? And how does rapid population growth come to an end?

ourworldindata.org

 

[Cosmik Debris]

If the price kees falling then it implies that we have more access to resources...

Think of resources as a flux and not a stock, then it makes sense. Water is a good example. A single water reserve can deplete, but the amount of H20 since the bigbang is constant.

I.e. it's about our ability to deliver clean water. If our ponds dry up, we can always recycle water or we can desalinate. What links them all together is energy. I.e. if the price of energy drops (we get better at extracting it) then the rest becomes secondary.

So the amount of coal or oil on Earth is a constant? No matter how much gets burnt?

 

[Nicodeamus]

So the amount of coal or oil on Earth is a constant? No matter how much gets burnt?

It's theoretically finite, but the amount of reserves is so abundent that it doesn't matter. What matters is the price of getting it out of the ground. If prices rise investors pour money into new sources/methods/alternatives until it gradually falls.


We didn't stop using lamp oil because we ran out of wales, we started using oil and later light bulbs. Nowadays oil, coal and gas is already being replaced with Nuclear and Renewables/electric cars to the point that that question is silly to ask.

No capitalist country for example has had a famine, the reason being that the price mechanism corrects for supply anf demand. Also with intensive agriculture we are using fewer and fewer farmland today than in the last 20 years.

 

[Paulsie]

It's theoretically finite, but the amount of reserves is so abundent that it doesn't matter. What matters is the price of getting it out of the ground. If prices rise investors pour money into new sources/methods/alternatives until it gradually falls.


We didn't stop using lamp oil because we ran out of wales, we started using oil and later light bulbs. Nowadays oil, coal and gas is already being replaced with Nuclear and Renewables/electric cars to the point that that question is silly to ask.

No capitalist country for example has had a famine, the reason being that the price mechanism corrects for supply anf demand. Also with intensive agriculture we are using fewer and fewer farmland today than in the last 20 years.

So do you believe cows contribute towards global warming and should therefore be taxed?

 

[Nicodeamus]

So do you believe cows contribute towards global warming and should therefore be taxed?

No Global Warming is just a phoney scam.

 

[Nicodeamus]

BS The world population increased from 1 billion in 1800 to 7.9 billion today. The world population growth rate declined from 2.2% per year 50 years ago to 1.0% per year.

World Population Growth

When and why did the world population grow? And how does rapid population growth come to an end?

ourworldindata.org

The rate declined, i.e. fertility rates dropped.
.
Here is a better graph below. The population growth rate is on decline.
Look at the UN projectories, not even a worst estimate suggests that we will double the earth's population.

 

[Cosmik Debris]

It's theoretically finite, but the amount of reserves is so abundent that it doesn't matter.

Abundance does not equal infinite. You claimed the Earth's resources are infinite because of a controversial and disputed economist's price theory.

 

[Cosmik Debris]

No capitalist country for example has had a famine, the reason being that the price mechanism corrects for supply anf demand. Also with intensive agriculture we are using fewer and fewer farmland today than in the last 20 years.

And depleting the farmland requires more fertiliser which leaches into the water system and causes algal blooms in the oceans.

 

[Cosmik Debris]

No Global Warming is just a phoney scam.

What's the difference between global warming and climate change?

 

[Cosmik Debris]

The rate declined, i.e. fertility rates dropped.
.
Here is a better graph below. The population growth rate is on decline.
Look at the UN projectories, not even a worst estimate suggests that we will double the earth's population.

View attachment 1352916

Even with population growth on the decline, the population is still increasing exponentially. Refer number of persons alive graph above.

 

[Paulsie]

What's the difference between global warming and climate change?

Climate change is ongoing (and cannot be controlled).

Global warming is a politically / economically driven agenda. When politicians use the term climate change, they are trying to pretend they are one and the same.

 

[Nicodeamus]

Even with population growth on the decline, the population is still increasing exponentially. Refer number of persons alive graph above.

An exponential functions
Y = exp(rx)
If r falls below one, as the current trajectory indicates then the commulative function
Y = sigma(exp(rx))
Starts decreasing.

You need to look at both.

At current trajectory event through the population will increase (largely due the people ageing), the total population isn't predicted to dubble.
Translation: with the current fall in fertility rates, all that needs to occur is for deaths to catch up with births.

Below is the famous demographic transition model.