Climate Change, Superstorms - Polar Shift, Solar Storms and Magnetosphere Havoc

Arthur

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It's a little-understood and little-researched field, but solar scientists are pretty much ad idem that the magnetosphere affects global weather and also climate. New research is showing that the effect is much greater than heretofore thought.

We already know our planet is going through an accelerating polar shift. For decades the magnetic pole has been shifting by a few kilometres a year, but recently the shift has accelerated to about 70km/year, and still speeding up. Incidentally, the well-known and long-established South Atlantic Anomoly is intensifying and growing.

In a recent paper, solar scientists find compelling evidence that magnetic intensity of solar storms affecting Earth can increase the effects of the polar shift and also speed up the frequency of the superstorms.

Also, the sun is a raging dragon at present. The Sun Spot Max is about three weeks away. And we're approaching the Solar Max in May 2013. About three weeks ago an unusually large flare appeared, but solar scientists are hugely perplexed by the low energy output of that flare, which has raised deep questions about our understanding of solar flares. Current theory would have put the recent giant flare at a NOAA G3 level, but it barely made a G1, and no-one knows why. Though it wouldn't have been a Carrington Event (1859), it could have been 20% of that event if the pong matched the sound (to use a fart analogy).

I for one wouldn't be surprised of this sort of thing lies behind the current weather chaos. Of course we don't really know, and the boffins will have to check it all out (if they can get any funding, because all the money's in AGW and the political agenda driving it). I'm not surprised that we're not reading much about this is the popular press - the (false) AGW meme infecting most journalists means they just can't fit this into their pre-copernican climate theory.

And as some notable icons of real science have noted, a goodly portion of climate science has been hijacked by science-degreed politico's who don't scruple at playing loose with the truth.
 

Nokkie

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the world won't end as we know it, it will only get more agitated?
 

Pitbull

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It's a little-understood and little-researched field, but solar scientists are pretty much ad idem that the magnetosphere affects global weather and also climate. New research is showing that the effect is much greater than heretofore thought.

We already know our planet is going through an accelerating polar shift. For decades the magnetic pole has been shifting by a few kilometres a year, but recently the shift has accelerated to about 70km/year, and still speeding up. Incidentally, the well-known and long-established South Atlantic Anomoly is intensifying and growing.

In a recent paper, solar scientists find compelling evidence that magnetic intensity of solar storms affecting Earth can increase the effects of the polar shift and also speed up the frequency of the superstorms.

Also, the sun is a raging dragon at present. The Sun Spot Max is about three weeks away. And we're approaching the Solar Max in May 2013. About three weeks ago an unusually large flare appeared, but solar scientists are hugely perplexed by the low energy output of that flare, which has raised deep questions about our understanding of solar flares. Current theory would have put the recent giant flare at a NOAA G3 level, but it barely made a G1, and no-one knows why. Though it wouldn't have been a Carrington Event (1859), it could have been 20% of that event if the pong matched the sound (to use a fart analogy).

I for one wouldn't be surprised of this sort of thing lies behind the current weather chaos. Of course we don't really know, and the boffins will have to check it all out (if they can get any funding, because all the money's in AGW and the political agenda driving it). I'm not surprised that we're not reading much about this is the popular press - the (false) AGW meme infecting most journalists means they just can't fit this into their pre-copernican climate theory.

And as some notable icons of real science have noted, a goodly portion of climate science has been hijacked by science-degreed politico's who don't scruple at playing loose with the truth.

Don't be daft, majority of scientists blame Global Warming for these storms <sarcasm>
 

Techne

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Also, the sun is a raging dragon at present. The Sun Spot Max is about three weeks away
The sun is actually more quiet than usual with regards to sunspot activity and IIRC the so-called "Sun Spot Max" might be delayed.
The relatively quiet sun is even raising speculations of a Maunder or a Dalton minimum (see below).

If you are interested in how solar activity, geomagnetic activity and galactic cosmic rays can have an effect on the climate, have a look at the project currently conducted by CERN. Cosmic rays and climate. The basic idea (IIRC) is this:

1) Clouds and cloud formation play a role in the climate by regulating the amount of energy from the sun to reach the surface..
2) Aerosol formation in the atmosphere play a role the formation of clouds.
3) Cosmic ray ionization and ion-induced aerosol nucleation play a role in aerosol formation (so the theory goes and IIRC, the magnetos sphere plays an important part in all this).
4) Low solar activity is correlated with increased GCRs.

So from there, the theory goes that low solar activity will result in increased cloud formation due to increased GCR formation, and thus a cooler climate. Well, the theory is there and they are testing it out. Guess we will have to wait and see.

Anyway, look at the solar activity (and solar cycle) for the past century:
From: A physical reconstruction of cosmic ray intensity since 1610
be10.png
A decrease in the amount of incoming GCRs since 1900 can be observed.

It is based on correlations between datasets (ACTUAL measurements). Just like ice core data gives an indication of past CO2 levels, so does Beryllium ice core data give an indication of GCR flux...

Just a little background on how they get the correlations....
1) They look at the records of sunspot activity as this is a good indication of GCR flux.
2) They look at beryllium 10 ice core data (among others)
3) They look at ice core data (among other) to give an indication of global temperatures (ice thickness, O14 etc.)
4) They correlate these and see if there is a match... (r>0.8 is reasonable, r>0.95 is great)
(A little more about Be-10 and climate change)

1 and 2 has been correlated with good accuracy:
Time variations of Be-10 and solar activity


On the flip side, solar activity has also increased in the past century (but is relatively quiet all of a sudden).
11265_sunspot_numbers.png

Past studies have shown that sunspot numbers correspond to warming or cooling trends. The twentieth century has featured heightened activity, indicating a warming trend.
11266_Solar_Activity_Proxies.png

Solar activity has shown a major spike in the twentieth century, corresponding to global warming. This cyclic variation was acknowledged by a recent NASA study, which reviewed a great deal of past climate data.


And now for correlations between solar activity, GCRs and climate change:
Correlation between solar activity, GCRs and recent climate change.

kirkby_slide_siberianclimate.jpg

Correlation recently reported between solar/GCR variability and temperature in Siberia from glacial ice core, 30 yr lag (ie. ocean currents may be part of response)

Also: From here.
crf-corr.png

And Solar cycle linked to global climate


So yeah, we live in interesting times. And with the La Nina in full force, dragging down global temperatures (satellite measurements)

rss_v32-v332.png

AND a relatively quiet sun.... things will get more interesting.
 
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w1z4rd

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Speculations around the Magnetosphere has been around for many many years... You want a prize or a tap on the shoulder or something? :D

Now, I was simply inputting my thoughts as I would in any discussion. My post contain links others interested in this discussion might find interesting. You on the rag? Meow.
 

Pitbull

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Now, I was simply inputting my thoughts as I would in any discussion. My post contain links others interested in this discussion might find interesting. You on the rag? Meow.

Just like you punted that exact same sentence a few days ago? Just curious... Seriously sounds like you want a pat on the back or something :eek:
 

Bismuth

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eh, graphs again, lol! :D

But they are interesting, so if the sun is responsible for global warming/climate change/whatever the latest buzzword is, then what precisely are we supposed to do about it, tell the sun to go "green" and stop emitting so much CO2 or whatever? :D

B
 

Pitbull

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eh, graphs again, lol! :D

But they are interesting, so if the sun is responsible for global warming/climate change/whatever the latest buzzword is, then what precisely are we supposed to do about it, tell the sun to go "green" and stop emitting so much CO2 or whatever? :D

B

I think they should be taxed instead of us. Surely there is other things doing way more damage than we're doing and they aint even paying a cent for it :mad: :twisted:
 

Bismuth

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I think they should be taxed instead of us. Surely there is other things doing way more damage than we're doing and they aint even paying a cent for it :mad: :twisted:

Yes, dammit, the sun must pay up or else..... :twisted:

B
 

w1z4rd

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Just like you punted that exact same sentence a few days ago? Just curious... Seriously sounds like you want a pat on the back or something :eek:
Nope. Your eagerness to troll me just makes you a little fail.
 
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Palimino

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...so if the sun is responsible for global warming/climate change/whatever the latest buzzword is, then what precisely are we supposed to do about it, tell the sun to go "green" and stop emitting so much CO2 or whatever?

If we can put a label on it, it gives the illusion of control. “We can’t stop civilization as we know it ending, but you will be excited to know that we know why.”
 

Arthur

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Let's not wander off into "end of the world" la-la-land silliness.

The link referenced by Techne (above) is interesting, as are some of the comments in that article.

I'm with those who don't think polar shift amounts to much, but there are some boffs who suggest the fluctuating field might lower for a while, admitting more solar pong. This affects the ionosphere and, as recent research suggests, climate and even weather are affected to a greater extent than previously understood.

One thing's for sure: our modern civilisation is far more vulnerable to a Carrington Event than in the past. Can you imagine the chaos if most electrical and electronic machinery was out of commission for a few weeks or months. In 1859 we had only rudimentary electrical devices and urban western civ was powered largely by coal and gas in each domus. It's beyond wishful thinking to say Sol won't ever bellow another CME as in 1859, and when it does the most urgent course of action is to get out of the city as fast as possible. With fridges, pumps and telecommunications dead, the marauding mobs will be swarming all over within a week. I think there's little doubt this will happen. Maybe today, maybe in 1000 or 100 000 years. But it will happen.

And of course at a planetary level life will go on. But our civilisation will be hard hit.

In the meantime, abolish the carbon tax, and defang the greenies - they are much more immediate threats to sanity and society.
 

Tomtomtom

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Let's not wander off into "end of the world" la-la-land silliness.
[...]
One thing's for sure: our modern civilisation is far more vulnerable to a Carrington Event than in the past.
[...]
With fridges, pumps and telecommunications dead, the marauding mobs will be swarming all over within a week. I think there's little doubt this will happen. Maybe today, maybe in 1000 or 100 000 years. But it will happen.

Are you not wandering off there a bit? Civilization does not depend on long-distance electricity grids and telecoms. These are modern, yes, but civilization is not predicated on them. Civil order, maybe. But there's no reason to think that would not be restored around the end of the hypothetical CME.
 

Pitbull

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Nope. Your eagerness to troll me just makes you a little fail.

Yes w1z4rd you actually went back to edit/delete the previous one just to come back and post this. You know for a fact you posted it in 2 different threads. I don't care what everyone here says, you just proved yourself dishonest. Nothing can beat that :)
 

w1z4rd

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Yes w1z4rd you actually went back to edit/delete the previous one just to come back and post this. You know for a fact you posted it in 2 different threads. I don't care what everyone here says, you just proved yourself dishonest. Nothing can beat that :)

You are too mentally disturbing for me to communicate with. Your constant and childish trolling of me is lame. Im over it. Got no time to deal with Asperger syndrome. Cheers.
 
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Pitbull

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You are too mentally disturbing for me to communicate with. Your constant and childish trolling of me is lame. Im over it. Got no time to deal with Asperger syndrome. Cheers.

You stalking me now? /shiver...
 

Bismuth

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Yes w1z4rd you actually went back to edit/delete the previous one just to come back and post this. You know for a fact you posted it in 2 different threads. I don't care what everyone here says, you just proved yourself dishonest. Nothing can beat that :)

You stalking me now? /shiver...

Lol, the only reason I saw what he posted is that you quoted him! :D

Been on my ignore list for awhile now, heck, I am probably on his.... whatever.

B
 
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