Covid-19 compared to Black Death and others

WollieVerstege

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Jun 1, 2016
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No... was it stated?

Was it used to justify the lockdown? That is what you are being asked.

PANDA is saying the data from the Diamond Princess suggested 20k not 350k!

Which of those numbers do you think was used to justify a shutdown of the life-sustaining economy, in SA?
Please show me PANDAs predictions in February and early March. We can take the conversation from there.
 

tetrasect

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Aug 22, 2009
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3,093
If you think economics is not the core issue, then this is why we are where we are.

We have all been led to believe it is not an individual adult's responsibility to understand basic economics.

We have been bombarded with economic jargon, which has had the effect of intimidating us and shutting down inquiry.

Basic economics is 100% relevant and 'on-topic'.

Money is 50% of every transaction. Which there are millions and millions of, each and every single day. It's not some theoretical abstract concept for academics.

If you can be diverted from taking an interest in such a vital part of your life.... it's game over.

To what do you, personally, attribute a doubling of life expectancy? Looking at where the human race has come from.

It is well within the individual's capacity to understand his roots... where he did well, and where he went astray.

As soon as this is 'out of your reach', your enemy has you where they need you... in submission... to them.
Don't take my word for it.

Look at the PANDA team. Are they qualified? Is there a conflict of interest?

If you still don't trust them, what is it about Karim and the 'X, Y Z' communist command council that makes them stand out?

There is a difference between science and scientism.
Not 'caused'... WILL cause.

Look at your roots. Your genes, alone, and your environment, would determine your outcome if it weren't for the uprising that culminated in 19th century.... the century of peace and the greatest boon to human wealth-creation the world has known. This is the story of human civilization. Go and look it up.

Anyway, you are misrepresenting what has been said.

Excess deaths are a combination.... of declining Covid-19 deaths and rising LD-induced deaths, rather than one or the other.

Wow.

Don't really know how to respond to whatever it is that you just barfed into existence.

Only thing that comes to mind is: lay off the crack!

I'm done.
 

lexity

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Please show me PANDAs predictions in February and early March. We can take the conversation from there.

 

Speedster

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Back in my preschool days the months of the year were taught to us as January, February, March, April, May, June, July, August, September, October, November and December.
 

lexity

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Wow.

Don't really know how to respond to whatever it is that you just barfed into existence.

Only thing that comes to mind is: lay off the crack!

I'm done.

Okay, so if someone advocates individual responsibility, in education, instead of relinquishing it to the state, they are clearly on drugs.

'[What? Me? Visit the website of a research organization that has not explicitly received the blessing from the Command Council? Are you on crack?]'
 

lexity

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Why else would you respond to a comment about Feb / March with an article from May?

Because the research and correspondence concerns the LD. Which was only implemented at the end of March... 'for 3 weeks'. It was then extended into May by which time PANDA had the results from the DP and could report on them and issue an advisory warning to the State... that here was solid data showing the likely number to be in the region of 20k, not 350k, and the damage would be 29 or 30 fold.

Why ask for the same documents from Feb / March?
 

gimpex

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Messages
763
I'm saying you're either misrepresenting the data or deliberately making false claims.

Provide the data you assert makes this claim, because there is none I'm aware of that claims anyone above 75 years of age has a 99% recovery probability.

I think you should read his statement.

He says for all ages , meaning from 0 to 100 ...... so yes over 75 will be higher but u der 20 will be much lower . And combined for all ages he says it 99%
 

tetrasect

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I think you should read his statement.

He says for all ages , meaning from 0 to 100 ...... so yes over 75 will be higher but u der 20 will be much lower . And combined for all ages he says it 99%

Actually he said "for all age groups". Over 75 is an age group.

Basically there are two ways of interpreting it. Either "all age groups combined into one group" or "all of the individual age groups". Rustypup made it clear that he was interpreting it the second way, but lexity still insisted that the numbers are correct, even when using that interpretation.
 

lexity

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I think you should read his statement.

He says for all ages , meaning from 0 to 100 ...... so yes over 75 will be higher but u der 20 will be much lower . And combined for all ages he says it 99%

I appreciate that, but I took the correction because this is important data and I wouldn't want to misrepresent it.

94.6% is still a rather high survival rate for a 70+ year old with a Covid-19 infection.

Of course, I'm also assuming that CDC figure is correct. State agencies and their politically-protected mouth-pieces are typically used to generate a response rooted in mostly-unwarranted fear. So that is why I considered it a safe baseline i.e. it would not surprise me to learn the survival rate is even higher than 94.6% in 70+ year-olds.
 

WollieVerstege

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Nice try.
Both those links are dated in May.
I clearly and unambiguously stated I want their published projections in February and early March.
 

lexity

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Nice try.
Both those links are dated in May.
I clearly and unambiguously stated I want their published projections in February and early March.

Sorry. I have no idea what your angle is.

If you want information go and look it up yourself. I never claimed Panda published DP figures before they came out.
 

Bonywasawarrioraway

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careful what you compare covid to, plague has been reported in China

soon enough the black death will reemerge in the 21 century.
you are unquestionably right. the usa has over a hundred cases of plague a year. BUT, its bacterial and easily treated with antibiotics theses days. Until it becomes resistant that is......... Topic for another day.
 

Nanfeishen

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Found the following regarding the Black Death and other plagues rather interesting and thought it worth sharing.

So according to studies, plague descendants including those of the Black Death have a CCR5 delta 32 mutated gene, which was studied regarding the HIV/AIDS pandemic.
Those men with this mutation were found to have up to a 70% reduced risk of HIV infection than those without it. So while this mutation exist in about 10% of the Population in Europe, it is virtually non-existent in Sub-Sahara Africa and Asia. Hence why HIV and AIDs hit those regions so hard.


The 2nd paragraph on this page regarding this mutation:

Although convergent evolution of immune-related genes in Europeans during the Black Death may have lent protection against subsequent encounters with Y. pestis, these genetic changes may also form the evolutionary basis for why modern-day Europeans are more susceptible to many pro-inflammatory and autoimmune diseases.

Now we jump forward to Covid 19:

People with this mutated gene appear to be at a higher risk from Covid mortality than those without it.
Possibly why Europe has been hit so hard, while Africa and Asia have not seen the same growth nor spread.

in the present study we observed a positive correlation on 55% of included population, projecting CCR5 Δ32 allele as an important genetic marker of SARS-CoV-2 related death.
..............
In conclusion, COVID-19 infection and mortality are associated with CCR5 Δ32 allele, and population-based genetic association studies in different cohorts are required to validate our findings.

Regarding modern day Europeans susceptibility to pro-inflammatory diseases

The current evidence showed that severely ill patients tend to have a high concentration of pro-inflammatory cytokines, such as interleukin (IL)-6, compared to those who are moderately ill. The high level of cytokines also indicates a poor prognosis in COVID-19. Besides, excessive infiltration of pro-inflammatory cells, mainly involving macrophages and T-helper 17 cells, has been found in lung tissues of patients with COVID-19 by postmortem examination. Recently, increasing studies indicate that the “cytokine storm” may contribute to the mortality of COVID-19.
 

Currantly

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Found the following regarding the Black Death and other plagues rather interesting and thought it worth sharing.

So according to studies, plague descendants including those of the Black Death have a CCR5 delta 32 mutated gene, which was studied regarding the HIV/AIDS pandemic.
Those men with this mutation were found to have up to a 70% reduced risk of HIV infection than those without it. So while this mutation exist in about 10% of the Population in Europe, it is virtually non-existent in Sub-Sahara Africa and Asia. Hence why HIV and AIDs hit those regions so hard.

[...]

CCR5Delta32 deletion as a protective factor in Czech first-wave COVID-19 subjects​


Abstract​

Infection by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus that causes coronavirus disease (COVID-19), has spread widely around the globe. Significant inter-individual differences have been observed during the course of the infection, which suggests that genetic susceptibility may be a contributing factor. CC chemokine receptor 5 (CCR5), which acts as a co-receptor for the entry of HIV-1 into cells, is promising candidate whose can have an influence on SARS-CoV-2 infection. A genetic mutation known as CCR5Delta32, consisting of a 32-nucleotide deletion, encodes a truncated protein that protects homozygous carriers of the deletion from HIV-1 infection. Similarly, inhibition of CCR5 seems to be protective against COVID-19. In our study, we successfully genotyped 416 first-wave SARS-CoV-2-positive infection survivors (164 asymptomatic and 252 symptomatic) for CCR5?32, comparing them with a population based sample of 2,404 subjects. We found the highest number (P=0.03) of CCR5Delta32 carriers in SARS-CoV-2-positive/COVID-19-asympto-matic subjects (23.8 %) and the lowest number in SARS-CoV-2-positive/COVID-19-symptomatic patients (16.7 %), with frequency in the control population in the middle (21.0 %). We conclude that the CCR5?32 I/D polymorphism may have the potential to predict the severity of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Linky
 
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