COVID-19 - Western Cape versus Gauteng

pinball wizard

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Yet when Donald Trump said something to that effect right at the start of this thing the whole world laughed at him...
I didn't.

I have laughed with Don before, seldom at him.

If you recall, many of us here said the same thing from the start as well.
 

pinball wizard

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Without a doubt. And consider now that over 10% of all tests done are returning a positive result! So if you got a 9 day back log of what is it? 80k odd tests, that's at least another 8000, as yet, unconfirmed infections.
The real number is that the antibody studies are showing that the true number of infections is 100's of times higher than simply those who have been tested. Remember, 80+% of people who get infected have such mild symptoms they will never get screened out for a test.
 

MiW

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That is only if you think the positive cases from tests done are the only infections in the country. I have an idea that there are far, far more people infected the 70k that have tested positive so far.

Everywhere in the world seems to be closing in on an actual mortality rate of around 0.2% based on true infection numbers off the back of widespread antibody testing.
IFR.jpeg
 

pinball wizard

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It's the case fatality rate, if you know the asymptotic count it'll be the IFR.
Yeah, and the health department trumpets the dead/tested positives as the mortality rate. It's meaningless and incorrect.

Unless, like sandman, the government thinks we only have 70K infected people in this country.
 

sand_man

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Yeah, and the health department trumpets the dead/tested positives as the mortality rate. It's meaningless and incorrect.

Unless, like sandman, the government thinks we only have 70K infected people in this country.
CFR is a widely used metric measuring the number of reported deaths per number of confirmed cases? So maybe the health minister needs to specify? But the CFR is correct based on the numbers at hand....
 

Lupus

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CFR is a widely used metric measuring the number of reported deaths per number of confirmed cases? So maybe the health minister needs to specify? But the CFR is correct based on the numbers at hand....
It is, but it's normally high.
 

sand_man

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It is, but it's normally high.
What is? The CFR? Well, a lot higher than the IFR, that's for sure. SA's is comparatively low compared to the rest of the world. So what can we deduce from that?
1.) The deaths at public hospitals aren't being recorded as COVID related
2.) Our test kits are faulty and producing a lot of false positives
3.) Our testing methodology is generally flawed, with tests being replicated

I would suggest it's all of the above....
 

Geoff.D

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Another circular debate repeated over and over again.

The key is to go and swot up what CFR, IFR and Mortality rate means, THEN check on what is being reported in any article, and then see if it makes sense and then comment, not before.
 

Speedster

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Sorry, you correct, it's the case FATALITY rate.. not mortality rate... (2.1%)?
No. Case fatality rate would be dividing the number of deaths by the closed cases. Dividing the number of dead by the positive cases is just statistical noise.
 

sand_man

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CFR is different to the mortality rate
See how often it's stated as the mortality rate...



EaH81lhXsAANhij.jpg
 

sand_man

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No. Case fatality rate would be dividing the number of deaths by the closed cases. Dividing the number of dead by the positive cases is just statistical noise.
Yes, also correct, however. From wiki... A CFR can only be considered final when all the cases have been resolved (either died or recovered). The preliminary CFR, for example, during the course of an outbreak with a high daily increase and long resolution time would be substantially lower than the final CFR.
 

Lupus

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See how often it's stated as the mortality rate...



View attachment 860789
This is the ANC
 
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