Crime levels on the decline, study shows

Do you trust government crime statistics or any subsequent research based on them?

  • Yes

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • No

    Votes: 17 94.4%
  • Not sure

    Votes: 1 5.6%

  • Total voters
    18

RompelStompel

Senior Member
Joined
Nov 17, 2005
Messages
985
http://www.iol.co.za/index.php?set_id=1&click_id=13&art_id=vn20070129031420890C607544

By Vusumuzi Ka Nzapheza and Anel Powell

Contrary to common perceptions, there has been a steady and consistent decrease in most major crimes, particularly murder, over the past decade, a new study by the Institute of Security Studies (ISS) shows.

The analysis of the crime statistics released last year showed that the national murder rate decreased from 67 murders per 100 000 people in 1994 to 39.5 per 100 000 in 2006, according to Antoinette Louw of the Institute for Security Studies (ISS).

Writing in the latest edition of the ISS's Crime Quarterly, Louw said this was a positive trend because murder statistics were the most accurate on record and also provided a useful indicator of the extent of violence in the country.

Total crime levels also continued a downward trend in the past three years, with several serious crimes following suit.

Louw writes in the ISS's latest Crime Quarterly bulletin that the trends that are of concern relate to crimes that are usually highly organised such as cash-in-transit robbery, car hijacking and car theft.

After peaking in 1999 when 107 448 cases were reported, car theft dropped to 83 857 by 2005.

Car hijacking, which peaked in 2002 when 15 846 cases were reported to the police, has declined to 12 434 in 2005.

Louw said the timing of the SAPS release of the crime statistics was to blame for the growing fears of a new crime wave because they were released in September each year, but covered the period which ended in March of the same year.

"This means no figures are available for the six-month period between March and September and as events last year demonstrated, when public experiences of crime during the six months differ markedly from what the trends for the preceding year show, the police run into a public relations nightmare," she said.

The ideal release date would be in May, she said.

Louw said the response of police leadership had left the public with the sense that government - and the police in particular - did not care enough about the problem or its consequences.

"What will help is a sincere and informed acknowledgement of the current problem, followed by a clear outline of specific responses to specific crime problems," she said.

In addition, remarks by Safety and Security Minister Charles Nqakula in parliament last year that those who just whinge about crime should leave the country have not boosted the public's confidence in government's ability.

On top of this, National Police Commissioner Jackie Selebi spent the better part of last year defending his name after he was linked to murder accused Glenn Agliotti.

"As leader of the SAPS - and with the ability to control strategy, operations and resources - Selebi holds the position which, rightly or wrongly, symbolises government's response to crime," Louw said.

The need to "broaden the fight against crime" had been one of the central themes of a high-level two-day meeting.

The discussions were in line with President Thabo Mbeki's January 8 statement in which he said: "We need to make every possible effort decisively to tackle this challenge, drawing on the resources and capacity of all sectors of society in a united front against crime."

A sub-committee would spend a full day discussing measures that could be taken to reduce crime. These would include looking at the way the police used state resources.

This article was originally published on page 3 of Pretoria News on January 29, 2007
 

b166er

Well-Known Member
Joined
May 13, 2006
Messages
389
yes...if you take one glass of water out of the sea there will be less water in the sea, but the sea will still be huge
 

Xarog

Honorary Master
Joined
Feb 13, 2006
Messages
19,041
Ja, and how many people have stopped reporting crimes in general because they believe that it won't do any good?

Note how the study talks about 'reported' cases. It doesn't attempt to make any kind of projection regarding the actual crimerate.
 

icyrus

Executive Member
Joined
Oct 5, 2005
Messages
8,609
So this "study" is done on the officially released stats from the government? I am sure I am not the only one who doubts the reliability of those stats.
 

ToxicBunny

Honorary Master
Joined
Apr 8, 2006
Messages
81,787
doubt the reliability of those stats?

I know they're completely incorrect. Add at least 50 to 60% on top of that figure. The number of times I've tried to report a crime to the police, only to give up because its not worth the effort with the hoops they want me to jump through, or the run around they give me.
 

Nod

Executive Member
Joined
Jul 22, 2005
Messages
8,771
Keeping in mind that the government is trying to convince everybody that crime is not a problem currently, this type of article is "obviously" part of that whole strategy. They probably think that by saying there is no problem all the time, people will start to belief it.
 

Syndyre

Honorary Master
Joined
Jan 26, 2006
Messages
16,822
doubt the reliability of those stats?

I know they're completely incorrect. Add at least 50 to 60% on top of that figure. The number of times I've tried to report a crime to the police, only to give up because its not worth the effort with the hoops they want me to jump through, or the run around they give me.
That's assuming they correctly take into account all crimes that are actually reported, which I'm not so sure about.
 

The_Unbeliever

Honorary Master
Joined
Apr 19, 2005
Messages
103,201
Keeping in mind that the government is trying to convince everybody that crime is not a problem currently, this type of article is "obviously" part of that whole strategy. They probably think that by saying there is no problem all the time, people will start to belief it.
The classic ostrich way of doing things - stick your head into the sand and hope the danger goes away.

It. Does. Not. Work.
 

Krustytheclown

New Member
Joined
Jan 29, 2007
Messages
5
People will believe what they want to believe. If the stats dispute their perceptions then they're wrong. I grew up in a place where you took a taxi into, whether you had a car or not. Because if you took your car in you were definitely not leaving with it. Now you see all sorts of cars there and people are driving around not scared for their lives. But maybe this is only where I live.
I know this is getting old, but we need to work together with the government and being negative like this is not going to make things better. So make suggestions don't complain.
 

Leitmotif

Expert Member
Joined
Aug 21, 2006
Messages
4,001
Goebbels may have used it, but it's attributed to Lenin pretty much anywhere I find it. Remember, Lenin was late 1800s - early 1900s. Goebbels just needed to pick up a book.

xt: I'm not going to get into an argument about methods of statistical analysis and comparison, underreporting etc... I'm sure you've heard it all before, and don't care either way. I suggest however that you look up 'Proof by assertion'. Then look up 'Talking points' and look at .gov's approach to official commentary on crime. Crime is a problem, and .gov cannot seem to acknowledge it, much less bring it to heel. "Crime's not increasing" is the rallying cry, but crime's impact is growing more profound. A miniscule decrease in some categories and an increase in others hardly counts as a gain, especially considering escalating levels of violence associated with crimes.
 

Syndyre

Honorary Master
Joined
Jan 26, 2006
Messages
16,822
People will believe what they want to believe. If the stats dispute their perceptions then they're wrong. I grew up in a place where you took a taxi into, whether you had a car or not. Because if you took your car in you were definitely not leaving with it. Now you see all sorts of cars there and people are driving around not scared for their lives. But maybe this is only where I live.
I know this is getting old, but we need to work together with the government and being negative like this is not going to make things better. So make suggestions don't complain.
People make suggestions all the time and they're ignored. That gives them the right to complain.
 

Syndyre

Honorary Master
Joined
Jan 26, 2006
Messages
16,822
Goebbels may have used it, but it's attributed to Lenin pretty much anywhere I find it. Remember, Lenin was late 1800s - early 1900s. Goebbels just needed to pick up a book.
Ok, looks like I was wrong. :)
 

BobbyMac

Expert Member
Joined
Jan 17, 2007
Messages
3,353
People will believe what they want to believe. If the stats dispute their perceptions then they're wrong. I grew up in a place where you took a taxi into, whether you had a car or not. Because if you took your car in you were definitely not leaving with it. Now you see all sorts of cars there and people are driving around not scared for their lives. But maybe this is only where I live.
I know this is getting old, but we need to work together with the government and being negative like this is not going to make things better. So make suggestions don't complain.
I strongly disagree with this permanent and old nonsensical gibberish. I pay exorbitant amounts in taxes every month and one of my expectations is that the government protects my family in return for that money. End of discussion.

This nonsense that people must do more to fight crime is a gigantic cop out, typical of an incompetent scapegoat-seeking government. As a people, we did our part by voting. That's all we're meant to do - we've put our voices and money into the government, and we should expect and demand the service we effectively paid for. This "work together to fight crime" is equally as useful as the "shuttup or get out" rhetoric brandied about at every opportunity, especially because we as citizens are prevented from taking action, despite the willingness to do so.
 
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