Crisis in Ukraine

[Jola]

What could they do?

Same as what they did in Afghanistan, didn't end so well for them.

 

[Unhappy438]

Putin logic would dictate Russia shouldn't interfere in UAE's sphere of influence, that UAE sees Russia's military cooperation with Iran as an attempt to surround the UAE and danger Arab speakers and Sunnis.

 

[Dave]

Same as what they did in Afghanistan, didn't end so well for them.

I was answering in relation to xarogs question, ie what would the West do if Russia began to openly back an Iran/Syria plan to keep Assad in power, I don't think he meant a direct Russian military intervention.

I was answering by saying I doubt there is anything they could do to stop a Iran/Syria joint mission with direct Russian help.

 

[Xarog]

What could they do?

Bankroll a proxy army via Saudi Arabia and Qatar is one possibility.

Putin logic would dictate Russia shouldn't interfere in UAE's sphere of influence, that UAE sees Russia's military cooperation with Iran as an attempt to surround the UAE and danger Arab speakers and Sunnis.

As long as Syria didn't invite Iran and/or Russia into its territory you would be quite right.

 

[Xarog]

Btw, what does the outbreak of the civil war in Syria have in common with the coup in Ukraine? Hint: Economic agreements feature heavily in both.

 

[Dave]

As long as Syria didn't invite Iran and/or Russia into its territory you would be quite right.

Syria has already invited Russia into its territory.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_naval_facility_in_Tartus

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/dec/23/syria-crisis-russian-military-presence

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...used-to-monitor-rebels-and-Israel-seized.html

 

[Xarog]

Syria has already invited Russia into its territory.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_naval_facility_in_Tartus

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/dec/23/syria-crisis-russian-military-presence

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...used-to-monitor-rebels-and-Israel-seized.html

Kinda makes one wonder just how much Russia has done to keep Assad in power thus far.

Edit: For that matter it makes one wonder whether or not the Russian offer to Iran is sincere. The two could be conspiring to leverage concessions from the United States. That the Iranians have not yet accepted the Russian offer is intriguing.

 

[AntiGanda]

Kinda makes one wonder just how much Russia has done to keep Assad in power thus far.

It isn't about keeping him in power. Rather about dealing with a group intent on ousting a legitimate leader. Russia is quite hot on regime change by insurrection, which is why they were upset after the Ukrainian coup and ousting of a democratically elected president.

 

[AntiGanda]

Prime Minister David Cameron has said Britain will not supply Ukraine with lethal weaponry in the fight against rebels in the East of the country, but UK troops will support Ukrainians with tactical intelligence, training and logistics.

Speaking to the House of Commons, David Cameron said UK support would be given “well away from the area of conflict,” adding that the purpose of aid would be to improve Ukraine’s tactical advantage.

He was further questioned on the capability of the UK to defend its airspace after RAF jets were scrambled to intercept Russian bombers last week for the second time in 2015.

He said the Russians were probably trying to make “some sort of point,” but added that he didn’t know what that point was.

Cameron said Britain should be confident in its defensive strengths against Russia.

RT

 

[Xarog]

It isn't about keeping him in power. Rather about dealing with a group intent on ousting a legitimate leader. Russia is quite hot on regime change by insurrection, which is why they were upset after the Ukrainian coup and ousting of a democratically elected president.

I really don't think Russia cares too much about whether Assad is "legitimate" or not beyond the legal ramifications of such a claim in international politics.

 

[Unhappy438]

DPR commander threatens to kill OSCE monitor

At a “DPR” checkpoint in Kievskyi district in Donetsk city, the SMM on 22 February heard the sound of incoming and outgoing shelling and small-arms fire, assessed by the SMM to have emanated from the Donetsk airport, approximately two kilometres to the north. A “DPR” area commander at the checkpoint threatened to kill the SMM monitors. On the same day, an SMM Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) attempting to monitor compliance with the Minsk Package in the environs of the Donetsk airport was consistently jammed.

Full report here: http://www.osce.org/ukraine-smm/142351

 

[Unhappy438]

Ukraine army to be trained by UK troops - Cameron

British military personnel are to be sent to Ukraine in the next few weeks to provide advice and training, says Prime Minister David Cameron.

As he spoke, pro-Russian rebels said they were pulling back heavy weapons from the front line in eastern Ukraine as part of a ceasefire.

However, the government in Kiev has disputed the rebel claims.

Mr Cameron said he would push for more sanctions on Russia if the separatists failed to observe the truce.

The prime minister told a House of Commons committee that up to 75 British soldiers divided into four teams would go to an area well away from the conflict zone to provide medical, logistics, intelligence and infantry skills.

In a statement, British Defence Secretary Michael Fallon said that the move was a result of "continued Russian-backed aggression".

The United States has already said it is planning to send a battalion of soldiers to train three Ukrainian battalions.

Foreign ministers from Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France met in Paris on Tuesday in an attempt to bolster confidence in the ceasefire agreed in Minsk on 12 February. They made little progress, reports said.

Ukraine fears that the separatists are planning to use the relative lull in fighting to switch their attention to the southern port city of Mariupol.

Following talks Ukrainian Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin told reporters: "We are extremely concerned by recent attacks in the vicinity of Mariupol. We are concerned by a possible relocation of forces from Debaltseve in the direction of Mariupol."

International monitors say they cannot confirm the withdrawal of the rebel weaponry in the east, though movement of artillery columns has been reported on the ground.

Monitors at the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe say it is not possible to verify the pullout as they do not know the amount of weapons removed or where they have been taken.

Meanwhile, US Secretary of State John Kerry has accused Russia of repeatedly lying about their involvement in Ukraine.

"And they have been persisting in their misrepresentations [or] lies, whatever you want to call them, about their activities there to my face," Mr Kerry told a Senate Committee.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31610026

 

[Unhappy438]

Canada equipping and training Ukraine's military police, UK and USA equipping and training the National Guard. A good combination.

 

[Xarog]

Canada equipping and training Ukraine's military police, UK and USA equipping and training the National Guard. A good combination.

But how are they going to keep the Ukrainian government in power?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-...oup-can-not-be-ruled-out-among-currency-implo

 

[w1z4rd]

Russia has radically transformed in one year

MOSCOW — One year ago, Ukrainians ousted pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych, plunging both countries into a bloody conflict and setting in motion a transformation of Russia.

In February 2014, Russian President Vladimir Putin was basking in the glow of high international standing. His role the previous fall in brokering an agreement on Syria garnered him the respect of 49% of Americans surveyed in a YouGov poll. The Winter Olympic Games were wrapping up in Sochi, where host Russia won more gold and silver medals than any other country and celebrated its arrival as a member of the Western community.

Today, hundreds, if not thousands, of Russians are fighting and dying in eastern Ukraine in a covert war against Ukraine's new government, even as the Kremlin continues to deny aiding separatist rebels. Russia's economy has been crippled by a triple whammy of falling oil prices, capital flight and Western sanctions over its annexation of Crimea and incursion into Ukraine. Russians who had grown accustomed to European travel find their vacations prohibitively expensive because of the ruble's collapse. In a country whose leaders once went out of their way to court investors, Moody's last week downgraded Russian debt rating to junk status.

The transformation is more than economics. It's a visceral change in mood. A year ago, just 4% of Russians identified their country and the United States as enemies. Now, that figure is 42%, according to a recent survey by the Levada Center. A majority of Russians I've spoken to blame America for stoking a war in eastern Ukraine by encouraging Ukraine to tilt toward the West.

Dual citizens are forced to register with immigration authorities or face criminal action. Where foreigners were once sought-after employees, tens of thousands of Germans, Americans and English have left the country, as funding for jobs dried up and the ruble plummeted.

Ukrainian servicemen take a break near Artemivsk, in
Ukrainian servicemen take a break near Artemivsk, in the Donetsk region of Ukraine on Feb. 23. (Photo: Anastasia Vlasova, European Pressphoto Agency)
One year ago, I still worked at a Kremlin-controlled news agency that largely adhered to journalistic principles of basic objectivity. Now, that news agency has been turned into an overt propaganda organ run by a firebrand TV host who threatened the U.S. with "radioactive ash" and told his staff that the time of objective reporting was over.

When Russia moved to ban European and American food products in response to Western sanctions, the dismay among a number of Russians — including myself — wasn't about the absence of Parmesan cheese or Sicilian blood oranges, which are small problems indeed when half the country can't afford them and when Ukrainians and Russians are dying across the border. It was about the idea that a government would choose shortages for a questionable political principle — and embrace once more the notion that human lives mattered less than politics.

"We will tighten our belts, eat less food," First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov declared at the annual Davos confab in Switzerland last month.

In Moscow, we go about our daily lives. We meet friends in restaurants, a third of which are expected to go out of business by year's end because of the collapsing economy. The war in Ukraine hangs like a shadow over the plunging ruble, the closing cafes and the expats vacating their apartments. It creeps into otherwise innocuous conversations.

"I am going home to Ukraine for the weekend," an acquaintance told me recently. One year ago, I would have just wished her a nice trip. Now, I have no clue how to respond to what comes next as she breaks into tears: "I have two sons there. They might be conscripted" to fight pro-Russian insurgents in the east.

It took Russia just one year to get to this place. No change in government, no attack from beyond, no landslide election or political coup, but a revolution across the border where it chose to intervene.

Last winter, I watched the beginning of Ukraine's revolution with dread. Nothing good could come of it, I thought then. I just never believed it would get this bad.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...ia-changed-since-ukraine-revolution/23875803/

Russians are getting what they voted for. A ****ty president, epidemic levels of corruption and a failing country.

 

[Xarog]

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...ia-changed-since-ukraine-revolution/23875803/

Russians are getting what they voted for. A ****ty president, epidemic levels of corruption and a failing country.

Lol.

It took Russia just one year to get to this place. No change in government, no attack from beyond, no landslide election or political coup, but a revolution across the border where it chose to intervene.

OP seems to believe Russia's behaviour exists in a vacuum. Such naivety is nice, but it's not really a luxury that leaders of a country can afford.

 

[Dave]

One year ago, I still worked at a Kremlin-controlled news agency that largely adhered to journalistic principles of basic objectivity. Now, that news agency has been turned into an overt propaganda organ run by a firebrand TV host who threatened the U.S. with "radioactive ash" and told his staff that the time of objective reporting was over.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...ia-changed-since-ukraine-revolution/23875803/

this point seems to be getting made a lot more by journalists who have worked for one of the Russian propaganda agencies, and people still quote them as if they might actually be reporting truthfully or objectively.

 

[Unhappy438]

A translation of Novaya Gazeta leaked document on Russias plan to take over Ukraine (written just a few weeks before the end of Maidan)

THE UKRAINE PLAN

Following is a rough but semantically correct translation of the full text of the “Ukraine Strategy Document”, dated somewhere after February 4th 2014 and prior to February 15th 2014, leaked today by Novaya Gazeta:

In assessing the political situation in Ukraine one must recognize, firstly, the bankruptcy of President Viktor Yanukovych and the fact that his ruling “family” is rapidly losing control of the political process;
Secondly, the paralysis of the central government and the country’s lack of a clear political entity with which the Russian Federation could negotiate; Third, the low probability of occurrence of consensus on this topic after the early parliamentary and presidential elections that Viktor Yanukovych announced on February 4th.

If the Russian oligarchy is balanced off by a powerful bureaucratic class, the Ukrainian state machinery is obviously weaker than oligopolies; it, like the sphere of public policy, is under the control of the oligarchs. Namely the oligarchs (R. Akhmetov, D. Firtash, I. Kolomoisky and others) govern the Kiev political community, including the Verkhovna Rada and the systemic opposition. Non-systemic opposition (the so-called Independence), on the other hand, is beyond the control of the leaders of the systemic opposition; here the tone is set by “warlords” (in large part – football fans and representatives of the criminal underworld), who do not have electoral support and, apparently, are not so much under the control of oligarchic groups, but largely of Polish and British intelligence services. At the same time, many oligarchic groups have also funded the Maidan movement, in order “not to put eggs in one basket.”
—–
President Viktor Yanukovych – a man of low moral character, is afraid to hand over the presidency and at the same time is ready to “give up” the security forces in order to guarantee the conservation of his post of President, and his safety after leaving this post. Meanwhile, those units of the “Berkut”, which are used to quell the unrest in Kiev, are formed mostly of locals of the Crimea and Eastern regions. According to local observers, any attempt by Yanukovich’s successor to organize a repression against the Interior Ministry and SBU, as a penalty for the suppression of the Maidan, will inevitably be met with harsh reaction force. Furthermore, there is no knowing what the position of the Ukrainian army will be; it, according to the Ukrainian Defense Ministry employee, is “locked in barracks and the officers are guarding the weapons depots so that, God forbid, they do not fall into the hands of contracted soldiers, who would – in this case – start shooting at each other” .

…..

Early parliamentary and presidential elections could be the reason for a new round of a public-rallies-turned-into-assault civil war, deepening the East-West electoral divide and ultimately accelerating the disintegration of Ukraine.

The course and outcome of the Munich conference provides a reasonable basis to believe that:

– The European Union and the United States assume the possible disintegration of the country and do not even consider this development extraordinary. The concept of “piecemeal” absorption of a large Eastern European country by the EU is not only publicly articulated by a number of official EU speakers, but finds supporters in the ranks of the Ukrainian elite.

Will Russia participate in this geopolitical intrigue?

2. Russia’s policy towards Ukraine should finally become pragmatic.

First, the regime of Viktor Yanukovych has finally gone bankrupt. Its continued political, diplomatic, financial, and information support by the Russian Federation no longer makes any sense.

Second, in an environment where sporadic civil war in the form of urban guerrilla war from so-called “supporters of Maidan” against the leadership of a number of areas in the East of the country has become a fact, and the disintegration of the Ukrainian state under the geographical demarcation of regional alliances “Western area plus Kiev” and “Eastern regions plus Crimea” has become part of the political agenda, under these conditions.

Russia must in no case limit its policy in Ukraine only to attempts to influence the political situation in Kiev and the relationship of systemic opposition (Yatsenyuk, V. Klitschko, O. Tyagnybok, Poroshenko and others.) with the European Commission.

Third, in almost complete paralysis of the central government, unable even under the threat of default and the absence of “Nafgogaz” funds for payments for Russian gas to form a responsible government, Russia is simply obliged to intervene in the geopolitical intrigue of the European Community, directed against the territorial integrity of Ukraine.

First of all, because otherwise our country is in danger of losing not only Ukrainian market of energy, but what is much more dangerous, even indirect control over the Ukrainian gas transportation system. This will endanger the position of “Gazprom” in Central and Southern Europe, causing huge damage to the economy of our country.

3. The Constitution of Ukraine in any case is unable to provide a mechanism for a legitimate way to start the integration of Eastern Ukrainian and Crimea into the legal framework of the Russian Federation.

As stated in Article 71 of the Ukraine Constitution, the questions of changing its territory are settled exclusively by an all-Ukrainian referendum. Meanwhile a referendum, in accordance with Article 72 of the Constitution of the country, may be proclaimed by popular initiative at the request of at least three million Ukrainian citizens eligible to vote, provided that the signatures of the referendum are collected in no less than two-thirds of the area and not less than one hundred thousand signatures are from each region.

However, as paradoxical as it sounds, for the Russian-Ukrainian integration process, there has already exists a legal framework: the so-called system of Russian-Ukrainian Euroregions, members of the Association of European Border Regions (which, in turn, is a member of the Assembly of European Regions). Thus, the Euroregion “Donbass” includes the Donetsk, Lugansk, Rostov and Voronezh regions, the Euroregion “Sloboda” – Kharkov and Belgorod region, the Euroregion “Dnepr” – Bryansk and Chernihiv regions and so on.

Russia, using the legitimate – from the point of view of the EU – legal instruments of Euroregions, should ensure the conclusion of contracts on cross-border and near-border cooperation, and then establish a direct state-contract relations with those Ukrainian territories, in which there is persistent pro-Russian electoral sympathy.

First of all – with the Republic of Crimea, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, Mykolaiv, Dnipropetrovsk and to a lesser extent – Kherson and Odessa areas. (This list deliberately – and rather conditionally – excludes the Sumy region and Donetsk region. The first – because of the very high electoral influence in her party “Batkivschina.” The second – due to the close business and political ties between the local business elite, led by R. Akhmetov, with a number of representatives of the opposition oligarchic alliance with its extensive interests here.)

Local elites are more motivated than ever to accept half-way integration initiatives coming from Russia. Before the crisis, East Ukrainian elites preferred a “weak Kiev” to a “strong Moscow”, but now, under threat of losing everything, they are not going to meekly wait for the massive clean-up operations (including those based on the compromising “economic” material accumulated in Kiev), which inevitably will be undertaken by the central government no matter what political forces will be part of the “new consensus” after the departure of Viktor Yanukovych as president of Ukraine. Under these conditions, they are willing to sacrifice their “independence”.

Current events in Kiev convincingly show that the time of Yanukovych in power could end at any moment. Thus, the window of opportunity for an adequate response from Russia is getting narrower. The number of dead rioters in the capital of Ukraine is direct evidence of the inevitability of civil war and the impossibility of consensus, with preservation of the Yanukovych presidency. Under these conditions it seems right to play on the centrifugal aspirations of different regions of the country, with the aim, in one form or another, to initiate the accession of the Eastern regions to Russia. Priority regions for makings such efforts should be the Crimea and the Kharkiv region, where there are already strong enough groups supporting the idea of maximum integration with Russia.

 

[Unhappy438]

Continued

4. Of course, Russia, taking on itself the support of the Crimea and some Eastern areas will be forced to take on the onerous, in its present position, budgetary costs. Undoubtedly, this will affect the macroeconomic stability and growth prospects of the economy. However, from a geopolitical point of view this will be an invaluable win: our country will have access to the new demographic resources at its disposal; and highly qualified workforce in industry and transport. In addition, it can count on the emergence of new Slavic migration flows from West to East – as opposed to the current Central Asian migration trends. The industrial potential of the Eastern Ukraine, including the military-industrial sector, included in the Russian military-industrial complex, will allow faster and more successfully to implement the program of re-arming of the Armed Forces.

What is equally important, a constructive, “smoothing” Russia’s participation in the highly probable disintegration of the Ukrainian state will not only give new impetus to the integrationist projects of the Kremlin, but also will allow our country to preserve, as mentioned above, the control over the Ukrainian gas transportation system. And at the same time significantly to change the geopolitical situation in Central and Eastern Europe, returning to Russia one of the major roles here.

5. To start the process of “pro-Russian drift” of the Crimea and Eastern Ukrainian territories, it is crucial today to create events that can give this process political legitimacy and moral justification; as well as to build a PR-strategy, which will present the actions by Russia and pro-Russian political elites of the South and East of Ukraine, as forced and reactive.

Recent developments in Western Ukraine (Lviv, Volyn, Ivano-Frankivsk region), in which the opposition declared their independence from the authorities in Kiev, give grounds to declare Eastern regions to declare their own sovereignty, with their subsequent re-orientation to the Russian Federation.

6. The reactions in Eastern Ukrainian regions should be two-layered by structure and scenario:

Members of disobedience activities should require the Verkhovna Rada to expand the format of the constitutional reform, discussed by the Ukrainian parliament, including the simplification of the procedure for organizing a nationwide referendum:

“We cannot be held hostage to the Maidan. The unitary state system of Ukraine, which allows violent nationalist minority population to impose their choice throughout the country, should be reconsidered. Russia is a federal state, and there such thing is unthinkable. Strengthening the legal ties with the state of Russia, we will strengthen the integrity of the Ukrainian state. “

Initially, the protesters should articulate their unwillingness to be “hostages of the Maidan”, of its attempts to usurp the right of other regions and the majority of the population to make its own civilization and political choice, the rejection of the “ideology of the civil war and split the country”, which is professed by political representatives of Western-Ukrainian elites.

Demonstrators, rallying under the Russian flag should not insist on changing the constitutional order. They should impute strong condemnation of “Western separatists, attacking – with the input of their foreign masters – the territorial integrity of the country“, as well as the requirements of the early development of “associative relations of Eastern regions of Ukraine and the Russian Federation”: “We are with Russia. No civil war. “

Slogans of the moment should be fair reluctance “to support tax deductions for the pro-fascist forces” of Western Ukraine and the government depending on them, which orients is policies on the demands of the European Union, and not on the needs of its citizens.

It is advisable to consistently reuse three slogans, with each of them logically stemming from one another:

– The requirement for the “federalization” (or even confederation) as a guarantee for these regions from interfering by pro-Western and nationalist forces in their internal affairs;

– Independent from Kiev accession of the Eastern and South-Eastern areas at the regional level into the Customs Union, which will provide the necessary conditions for the normal operation and development of the industry;

– Direct sovereignization followed by the accession to Russia, as the only guarantor of sustainable economic development and social stability.

The political movement for pro-Russian choice and associative relations of Eastern and Southern Ukrainian territories with the Russian Federation needs to be constituted on an organizational level and registered legally. For this it is necessary to prepare conditions for referenda in the Crimea and Kharkiv region (and then in other regions), that put to the vote the issue of self-determination and the further possibility of joining the Russian Federation.

Crucial is the organization of an informal meeting of the leaders or representatives of the Eastern regions of Ukraine in Moscow, where they will, by a person having sufficient representative power, would be given support and political guarantees (even if only oral). Such representatives of the East elite are, for example, H. Dobkin (Mayor of Kharkov), Konstantinov (Chairman of the Supreme Council of the Republic of Crimea), S. Aksenov (chairman of the party “Russian Unity”) .
….

Extremely important is that the “world community” would have as little reason to doubt the legitimacy and fairness of the referendum.

To do this, it seems appropriate to ensure the referendum process with modern means of verification (webcam and online translation). A Preliminary plan of work has already been developed and can be implemented within two weeks.

7. It is necessary to support these events with a PR-campaign in the Russian and Ukrainian press.
Including – by developing and launching into media circulation concept papers, a kind of manifestos, of the East and the West Ukrainian separatism movements. A wide range of public figures in Russia must speak out in support of the accession of the Eastern regions of Ukraine to Russia (a possible slogan may be “Putin 2.0 – give us Pereyaslavskaya Rada 2.0″).

https://cgrozev.wordpress.com/2015/02/24/the-ukraine-plan/

 

[w1z4rd]

Ukraine army to be trained by UK troops - Cameron



http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31610026

About time! They need boots on the ground to stop these Russian terrorists.


British troops to be sent to Ukraine as Cameron warns against appeasing Putin like Hitler


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ppeasing-Putin-like-Hitler.html#ixzz3Skp5FXCp
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