Crisis in Ukraine

A

Albereth

Honorary Master
Joined
Apr 26, 2005
Messages
15,860
AntiGanda said:
Those are the ones you know about. Remember that Russia is not as open about their military as the US.

Even our cheap local subs are tricky to locate. They reportedly did well in war games with other nations.
Click to expand...

Actually ours are very easy to find - up on bricks in the Simonstown Naval Yard.

And they weren't cheap.
 
S

snoopdoggydog

Expert Member
Joined
May 7, 2012
Messages
1,929
Putin’s Mideast Gains Trump $27 Billion Loss From Iran Agreement

As Russian President Vladimir Putin has shown in Crimea and eastern Ukraine, he’s willing to take an economic hit to expand his political influence.

He’s taking the same approach with Iran.

Lifting sanctions and allowing Iranian oil onto global markets would threaten to deepen the plunge in crude prices, curbing revenue from Russia’s biggest export. The cost: about $27 billion, based on estimates from the central bank in Moscow.

“The strategic benefits are much more important for Russia,” said Nikolay Kozhanov, an expert at the Royal Institute of International Affairs in London and a nonresident fellow at the Carnegie Moscow Center. “Incorporating Iran into pro-Moscow organizations, Russia is hoping to secure its share in this market or divide zones of influence.”

Putin will get an opportunity to bolster an ally, stymie regional adversaries and open business opportunities. The approach was underscored by his decision this week to lift a ban on shipping S-300 air-defense missile systems to Tehran under an $800 million contract.

A deal with world powers over Iran’s nuclear program has the potential to shift the balance of power in the Middle East as Iran competes against Saudi Arabia, a U.S. ally.
Regional Influence

Russia, which has lagged behind the U.S. in regional influence since the end of the Cold War, is working with the Persian Gulf state to shore up Syria’s Bashar al-Assad and oppose Saudi-led air strikes on pro-Iranian Houthis in Yemen.

The U.S. and five other global powers, including Russia, aim to complete negotiations with Iran by the end of June to end a decade-long dispute over its nuclear program. In return, sanction that have cut its crude exports by more than half would be removed.

Russia is entering its first recession in six years, worsened by sanctions over its support for separatists fighting the government in eastern Ukraine and its annexation of Crimea. The main cause of the slump is the 50 percent drop in oil prices since June 2014 to about $55 a barrel. The price could tumble another $15 a barrel once sanctions on Iran are lifted after a final nuclear deal, the Energy Information Administration said on April 7.
Sanctions Effect

Oil at $40 a barrel could shave almost 2 percent from Russian gross domestic product, according to estimates by the Russian central bank last month before the Iran framework was announced. The Bank of Russia predicts gross domestic product will shrink 3.5 percent to 4 percent this year at an average oil price of $50-55 per barrel under its base case. The economy may contract as much as 5.8 percent under the bank’s risk scenario, which assumes an average oil price of $40 per barrel.

“Some Russian experts say that the longer sanctions remain for Iran, the better it will be for Russia because of the risk of falling oil prices,” said Elena Suponina, a Middle East expert and adviser to the director of Moscow’s Institute for Strategic Studies. “But Russia supports the lifting of sanctions against Iran because it is a long-standing partner and ally, including over many regional problems.”

One of those problems is Syria, where Assad has managed to cling to power during a four-year civil war, as military and financial support from Iran and Russia countered Gulf states’ backing for his foes.
Syria, Yemen

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry signaled a change of policy of pushing for Assad’s immediate ouster last month, saying that the U.S. and its allies will have to negotiate with him to secure a political transition.

In Yemen, where Saudi-led air strikes are in their third week, Russia has been pushing for a UN Security Council resolution to call for an end to the military operation aimed at restoring the ousted Saudi-backed president.

An Iran nuclear agreement would increase the country’s ability to support its allies in Syria, Yemen and Iraq, and benefit Russian arms exports, said Firas Abi Ali, head of Middle East and North Africa Analysis at research group IHS Country Risk. “The Iranians and Russians have a shared fear of Sunni militancy.”

Russia and Saudi Arabia have had increasingly strained ties since they found themselves on opposing sides of the Syrian civil war in 2011 and some Russian officials accused the kingdom of conspiring with the U.S. to push down oil prices.
Trade Opportunities

In fact, the revival of Iran will be a “huge problem” for Russia’s energy industry because of the “serious impact” on the oil market from increased supplies and the likelihood the Iranians will compete with gas exporter OAO Gazprom, Chris Weafer, a senior partner at Moscow-based consulting firm Macro Advisory, said by e-mail.

That could be offset by increased opportunities in a sanctions-free Iran, according to Radzhab Sattarov, head of the Iran committee at the Moscow Trade and Industry Chamber.

Gazprom, its oil arm, OAO Gazprom Neft, and OAO Lukoil have had projects in Iran interrupted by sanctions, and Rosatom is seeking further contracts at the Bushehr nuclear power plant in Iran.

Russian-Iranian cooperation on oil shouldn’t be underestimated, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said on Monday, according to the Interfax news service. Russia is already supplying goods to Iran in exchange for oil, Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Tuesday.
‘Normal Country’

“For Russia, it is more beneficial if Iran becomes a normal country you can have regular business with,” said Fyodor Lukyanov, head of the Moscow-based Council on Foreign and Defense Policy. “There will be more competition but still Russia will have more advantages compared to American companies in doing business with Iran as the U.S. will remain the symbol of everything they hate.”

The political benefits may not only be in the Middle East.

Iran could join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a group that includes Russia, China and Central Asian states, thereby boosting Russian ability to influence Iran’s policies in Central Asia and Afghanistan, Kozhanov said.

“In Russia’s strategic thinking, Iran’s role is increasing,” Kayhan Barzegar, director of the Tehran-based Institute for Middle East Strategic Studies, said in a phone interview. “Russia and Putin have come to the conclusion that relations with Iran must increase.”
Click to expand...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ins-trump-27-billion-loss-from-iran-agreement
 
S

snoopdoggydog

Expert Member
Joined
May 7, 2012
Messages
1,929
IMF expects fall of Russian GDP in 2015 at 3.8% compared to earlier forecast of 3%

WASHINGTON DC, April 14./TASS/ The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects the fall of Russia's GDP in 2015 to 3.8%, the fund said in a new analytical forecast report on Tuesday.

Earlier, the IMF predicted that Russia's GDP this year will fall by 3%.

According to the new forecast of the fund, in 2016 the economic downturn in Russia will be 1.1%, while earlier the forecast was at 1%
Click to expand...

http://tass.ru/en/economy/789249

Most people here is not going to like this, shame
 
Seriously

Seriously

Honorary Master
Joined
Nov 29, 2012
Messages
16,596
TriGuN said:
Could you elaborate on how this is good news for you?
Click to expand...

An compensation for their effoerts in Ukraine and Crimea they desrve that and much more and I wish, hope and pray further strife unto Russia for their cocky attitude.
 
A

AntiGanda

Banned
Joined
Aug 17, 2014
Messages
4,515
http://russia-insider.com/en/bellingcats-buk-312-caught-video-ukrainian-armed-forces/5570

Interesting analysis of the Ukrainian BUK theory. It also disputes some posts made earlier on this topic.
--

"Bellingcat's BUK Caught on Video with the Ukrainian Army

We are waiting for Eliot Higgins, Aric Toler and the rest of the Bellingcat crew to explain this one...

Adam Baum

This article originally appeared at Separatists Referendum

British Mi5 social media misinformation site Bellingcat has stated that a BUK number 312 was the BUK missile vehicle that shot down Malaysian Airlines flight MH-17. They have presented still images to attempt to prove their case. There are rumors that the still images they presented are being used by the Dutch Safety Board as evidence in the investigation into the downing of MH-17, however, the very same number BUK 312 was recorded on video in July 2014 in the war zone right before MH-17 was shot down. The US government and media have also used these still images to place blame upon Russia.

Kiev military has stated on numerous occasions that they had no BUK missile systems in use, however, the Russian government presented a radar presentation on July 21, 2014 and presented evidence that Ukraine was operating at least 4 BUK missile systems and, incidentally, took them offline and moved them the very same day after MH-17 was shot down. Link to Russian radar presentation with English translation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KSpeo5RcQQo

This AP article from July 3, 2014 shows Ukrainian BUK 321 (which is the one in the above mentioned video that passes on the road right before BUK 312). The AP article clearly states that it is a Ukrainian army BUK photographed near Slavyansk, Ukraine. This photo and the video above clearly show that the two BUKs are linked and are in the possession of the Ukrainian armed forces.http://www.masslive.com/news/index.ssf/2014/07/ukraine_claims_winning_ground.html
Still not convinced it was a Ukrainian BUK system? Here it is plain to see on the airport tarmac in Kramatorsk, Ukraine. https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?...set=p.1586484431620041&type=1&theater

US Senator 'Maverick' John McCain has also been caught on camera lying about the Ukrainian military having BUK missile systems. At the 32 second mark of the following You Tube video, John McCain is caught outright lying on CNN saying that "the Ukrainians do not have BUKs". Link here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-V53xoum3AM

Another link showing that the Associated Press filmed the Ukrainian military with BUKs. Namely BUK 321 which is also in the attached video with BUK 312 and proves Ukraine had them both. Link here:http://news.yahoo.com/photos/ukrain...ft-missile-launchers-buk-photo-183322225.html
Interview with Ukrainian operator of BUK 312 that the US sand Bellingcat says allegedly downed MH17 [eng subs]

This witness testimony proves that the US was wrong to cite that Buk system #312 was a Russian BUK that was used to shoot down MH-17. This testimony and the fact that BUK 312 was a Ukrainian BUK throws the entire US and Kiev stated position into doubt.


continues .........."
 
S

snoopdoggydog

Expert Member
Joined
May 7, 2012
Messages
1,929
Russian Ruble Extends Outperformance - Surges To Strongest Since November

Isolated Russia continues to see its currency dramatically outperform the US Dollar. Breaking below 50 today, this is the strongest the Ruble has been since Nov 2014... The Ruble is now up almost 22% against the US Dollar year-to-date

rub.jpg

Russia Debt to GDP under 10%
 
Last edited:
Dave

Dave

Honorary Master
Joined
Aug 31, 2008
Messages
76,495
AntiGanda said:
http://russia-insider.com/en/bellingcats-buk-312-caught-video-ukrainian-armed-forces/5570

Interesting analysis of the Ukrainian BUK theory. It also disputes some posts made earlier on this topic.
--

"Bellingcat's BUK Caught on Video with the Ukrainian Army

We are waiting for Eliot Higgins, Aric Toler and the rest of the Bellingcat crew to explain this one...

Adam Baum

This article originally appeared at Separatists Referendum

British Mi5 social media misinformation site Bellingcat has stated that a BUK number 312 was the BUK missile vehicle that shot down Malaysian Airlines flight MH-17. They have presented still images to attempt to prove their case. There are rumors that the still images they presented are being used by the Dutch Safety Board as evidence in the investigation into the downing of MH-17, however, the very same number BUK 312 was recorded on video in July 2014 in the war zone right before MH-17 was shot down. The US government and media have also used these still images to place blame upon Russia.

Kiev military has stated on numerous occasions that they had no BUK missile systems in use, however, the Russian government presented a radar presentation on July 21, 2014 and presented evidence that Ukraine was operating at least 4 BUK missile systems and, incidentally, took them offline and moved them the very same day after MH-17 was shot down. Link to Russian radar presentation with English translation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KSpeo5RcQQo

This AP article from July 3, 2014 shows Ukrainian BUK 321 (which is the one in the above mentioned video that passes on the road right before BUK 312). The AP article clearly states that it is a Ukrainian army BUK photographed near Slavyansk, Ukraine. This photo and the video above clearly show that the two BUKs are linked and are in the possession of the Ukrainian armed forces.http://www.masslive.com/news/index.ssf/2014/07/ukraine_claims_winning_ground.html
Still not convinced it was a Ukrainian BUK system? Here it is plain to see on the airport tarmac in Kramatorsk, Ukraine. https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=1586484431620041&;amp;set=p.1586484431620041&type=1&theater

US Senator 'Maverick' John McCain has also been caught on camera lying about the Ukrainian military having BUK missile systems. At the 32 second mark of the following You Tube video, John McCain is caught outright lying on CNN saying that "the Ukrainians do not have BUKs". Link here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-V53xoum3AM

Another link showing that the Associated Press filmed the Ukrainian military with BUKs. Namely BUK 321 which is also in the attached video with BUK 312 and proves Ukraine had them both. Link here:http://news.yahoo.com/photos/ukrain...ft-missile-launchers-buk-photo-183322225.html
Interview with Ukrainian operator of BUK 312 that the US sand Bellingcat says allegedly downed MH17 [eng subs]

This witness testimony proves that the US was wrong to cite that Buk system #312 was a Russian BUK that was used to shoot down MH-17. This testimony and the fact that BUK 312 was a Ukrainian BUK throws the entire US and Kiev stated position into doubt.


continues .........."
Click to expand...

Continued...

Photo of author scanning for BUK

View attachment 207974
 
T

TriGuN

Banned
Joined
Nov 25, 2014
Messages
2,005
http://tass.ru/en/economy/789312
GENEVA, April 14. /TASS/.

Russia is ready to move toward a common economic space with the European Union, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Gennady Gatilov said Tuesday in Geneva at the opening of the 66th session of the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe.

Gatilov said the first step on that road "could be talks on establishment of a free trade zone between the EU and the Eurasian Economic Union [EAEU]." He said the idea "was voiced by Russia back in January 2014 at a Russia-EU summit."
Moscow proceeds from the fact that "all other interested states and formats, including the European Free Trade Association and the CIS [Commonwealth of Independent States, a loose association of former Soviet republics] will also be participants of the project of a common economic space, which will be based on WTO rules."

The deputy foreign minister stressed that qualitatively new prerequisites for a region-wide economic space are being formed in the region. The EAEU is "open for interaction with all interested states and other regional integration groupings."
"We should realize the one and undivided responsibility for the fates of European peoples and the fact that an equal model of interstate economic interaction based on open political dialogue and fair account of each other’s interests has no alternative," Gatilov said.

The UN Economic Commission for Europe (ECE) was established in 1947 to develop economic activity and strengthen ties between regional countries. During the current session, great attention will be paid to problems of ensuring sustainable development in conditions of changes occurring in Europe and worldwide.

The new integration association — the EAEU — started operating on January 1, 2015. Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Armenia make part of the EAEU. The Russian, Belarusian and Kazakh presidents held the final meeting in late December 2014 in the process to establish the EAEU.
Click to expand...
 
A

AntiGanda

Banned
Joined
Aug 17, 2014
Messages
4,515
Dave123 said:
Nice idea, but for the fact that Russia is currently under sanctions making a free trade agreement unlikely until they withdraw their military from Ukraine and stop giving the dissident rebels Russian military hardware.
Click to expand...
They are getting the hardware from the Ukrainian army who run away and abandon stuff.

The US and UK are providing armour to the Ukrainians, so they can't complain anyway.
 
M

mic_y

Expert Member
Joined
Dec 23, 2004
Messages
1,645
AntiGanda said:
They are getting the hardware from the Ukrainian army who run away and abandon stuff.

The US and UK are providing armour to the Ukrainians, so they can't complain anyway.
Click to expand...

yup, especially all the countless times that the terrorists have been spotted on camera with military equipment that was never exported from Russia, and is in service only in Russia.
 
A

AntiGanda

Banned
Joined
Aug 17, 2014
Messages
4,515
mic_y said:
yup, especially all the countless times that the terrorists have been spotted on camera with military equipment that was never exported from Russia, and is in service only in Russia.
Click to expand...
I'm not sure those photos were really proven real. This conflict has given rise to people who's sole purpose is to confuse and deceive.

Other ex-Soviet countries are also known to provide arms to Ukraine, so seeing an old Hungarian tank (originally from Russia), say, might send the conspiracy theorists running.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top