Cyclone Kenneth likely to hit Tanzania, Mozambique this week

Gordon_R

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#27
SABC TV News reports that cyclone Kenneth reached an incredible Category 4, with wind gusts of 300km/h, before landfall in northern Mozambique this afternoon. This is only four days after it first appeared on the charts.

Wikipedia article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Kenneth
The structure of the storm continued to improve, with a pinhole eye developing by 25 April. On that day, Kenneth peaked as an intense tropical cyclone with 10-minute winds of 215 km/h and a pressure of 934 hPa.
Meanwhile, the JTWC estimated that Kenneth peaked as a Category 4 equivalent cyclone with 1-minute sustained winds of 230 km/h.
Edit: The coastal city of Pemba is close to landfall, with wind gusts of up to 150km/h predicted this afternoon:
TAF: FQPB 251000Z 2512/2612 22060G70KT 9999 SCT015 BKN018 FEW025CB TX31/2513Z TN23/2603Z PROB30 TEMPO 2512/2518 5000 -TSRA BECMG 2518/2520 16070G80KT 9999 SCT015 BKN020 PROB30 TEMPO 2601/2605 4000 RADZ SCT012 OVC020 BECMG 2606/2608 03010G20KT
 
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LazyLion

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#29
This storm is rated as a category 4, hurricane Katrina was only a 3 when it slammed into Louisiana and killed 1300 people.
 

Gordon_R

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#34
This storm is rated as a category 4, hurricane Katrina was only a 3 when it slammed into Louisiana and killed 1300 people.
The casualties are caused by storm surge coastal flooding, direct wind damage, and rainfall induced flooding. Each will vary depending on the size and intensity of the storm, duration of rainfall, topography and elevation of coastal areas, population density, housing structures, evacuation shelters, and many other factors. It is impossible to make blanket comparisons.
 

Gordon_R

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#35
TC Kenneth has weakened considerably overnight, though there will continue to be rain over northern Mozambique until Sat 27th. Despite concerns, the effects elsewhere will be zero, as can clearly be seen from this morning's satellite image:

MET9_721-southernAfrica_20190426_0600[crop_25X2].jpg
 

M@gn3t1c

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#36
My brother works in Mozambique. He is in Palma which is further north of Pemba where the cyclone hit. He says they only had strong winds and some rain yesterday and last night. But today they have sunny skies.
 

ToxicBunny

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#37
My brother works in Mozambique. He is in Palma which is further north of Pemba where the cyclone hit. He says they only had strong winds and some rain yesterday and last night. But today they have sunny skies.
Yeah it seems to have died VERY quickly in terms of the winds and rain... surprising in a way... Or at least that it seems to be very very contained...
 

Gordon_R

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#38
Yeah it seems to have died VERY quickly in terms of the winds and rain... surprising in a way... Or at least that it seems to be very very contained...
Its still raining, but Kenneth was always a compact system, and prone to rapid intensification, and equally rapid dissipation. As I stated earlier, size and intensity are completely different factors.

The BBC reports that damage evaluation has been slow, but that the amount of rainfall will be large: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-48050859
Forecasters warn it is likely to be slow-moving, meaning heavy rain is expected to fall on the area for several days. The UN says over 600mm of rain may come - nearly double the 10-day accumulated rainfall that caused flooding in the port city of Beira, further south, during Cyclone Idai.
The difference is that Beira was in a river valley, so the outcome was totally different.
Cabo Delgado province is not as densely populated as the area hit by Cyclone Idai, and there is apparently more higher ground there.

That, in addition to warnings by authorities ahead of the storm, could mean we see less loss of life.
 

ToxicBunny

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#39
Its still raining, but Kenneth was always a compact system, and prone to rapid intensification, and equally rapid dissipation. As I stated earlier, size and intensity are completely different factors.
Yeah for sure...... I did expect it to hang around for a bit longer than it seems like it will, or at least cross over into Tanzania/Malawi properly.
 
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