Do you think the number of new daily coronavirus infections are set to rise?

Do you think the number of new daily coronavirus infections is set to rise?

  • Yes

    Votes: 212 92.6%
  • No

    Votes: 17 7.4%

  • Total voters
    229

neoprema

Expert Member
Joined
Jan 12, 2016
Messages
4,186
The minister asked for "calm" before the storm. They know something we don't.
I think its based on the trajectory other countries saw. We still need to peak - i dont think we're even near our peak yet. But, we might not have a peak - thats what lockdown is there to prevent?
 

Rogerj

Member
Joined
May 9, 2016
Messages
15
In the old Transkei where I live, I see so much social mixing and non-observance of social distancing and general safety - the numbers have to rise.
 

zulu53

Active Member
Joined
Mar 3, 2020
Messages
45
Over the last few days there have been a decline in the number of new coronavirus cases. Do you think this number is set to rise again?
Depends on how many tests they do and who they test. If they test people with the worst clinically positive symptoms then yes it will rise: you are testing people that you are 50% sure have it. If you tested the Members of Parliament, then No it won't rise. MP's have full unfettered access to the healthcare system so will have already been tested if symptomatic, so there are few cases to find. If you were testing a representative (random) sample of all South African - like the poll companies do when they try to predict trends then it will probably go down. Not knowing how many and who they are testing for sure then its a 50/50 - up or down. If they are followed what most countries short of testing kits have done (e.g. Italy, and I think SA are short) then chose the first method so yes it will rise, since more symptomatic people are coming forward every day, regardless of whether they would have recovered in a couple of days or not. In the statistics world - one is pre-conditioning the results based on the choice of sample size and type. Of course the issue is not the number but the "flattening of the curve". That is very hard to measure except by measuring the load on the health care system (e.g number of patients per facility: what the "flattening the curve" is supposed to be protecting or take it on faith.
 
Last edited:

zulu53

Active Member
Joined
Mar 3, 2020
Messages
45
Yes. Most of the current cases are middle class to wealthy individuals. It has yet to manifest amongst the poor.

Look at the global rate, its now 73K+ new cases a day. Consider that, and that the pandemic is only at a peak of 860K. Thats about 8.5% of total cases in one day.

Sure the ramped-up testing is maybe skewing those figures but I think we have a looooooong way to go still.
I think he meant "measured cases" not "actual cases". If what you say is true (and I don't know it is) then for the 10% of the population being measured the measured rates should carry on declining. The actual cases - well thats a completly different question: but not the one asked.
 

zulu53

Active Member
Joined
Mar 3, 2020
Messages
45
Over the last few days there have been a decline in the number of new coronavirus cases. Do you think this number is set to rise again?
Posted in the wrong place before. Clarify whether you mean test kit (lab) measured or actual cases.
 

TEXTILE GUY

Honorary Master
Joined
Oct 4, 2012
Messages
12,482
Honestly, I think the infection rate will rise, due in part to the testing increase, due in part to the incubation period lag and the fact that even with a stay at home order, people are still travelling around, and the nebulous factor of the virus "may persist on surfaces for a few hours or up to several days."
I also believe that, just like a cold, one may contract the virus, get over it, and contract it again.

I hope to be wrong, but I think this virus will be with us for a long time to come yet.
 

Kosmik

Honorary Master
Joined
Sep 21, 2007
Messages
21,190

JustJack

Expert Member
Joined
Sep 21, 2012
Messages
1,216
1-2 weeks, and then Winter is coming. In my view, the government should have already mobilised our medical corps. Field hospitals and other temporary hospitals and shelters need to deploy. Prevention isn't cure, but it helps to take precautionary measures at the soonest possible time.

The government is noble to employ 10,000 health care workers to zone areas by engaging in minimal testing, but it isn't enough and great care must be taken with this initiative.
"Medical corps, field hospitals and other temporary hospitals"
Huh? Do we actually have this?
 

Fulcrum29

Honorary Master
Joined
Jun 25, 2010
Messages
38,595
"Medical corps, field hospitals and other temporary hospitals"
Huh? Do we actually have this?

Yes, and I may add that those who serve in peacekeeping have done a magnificent job in foreign countries. Not everything in our military is inefficient. It will still be a costly burden for mobilisation thereof if our infections numbers raise beyond that of the capacity of our public accessible healthcare services.
 

twaatie

Senior Member
Joined
May 16, 2014
Messages
595
"Medical corps, field hospitals and other temporary hospitals"
Huh? Do we actually have this?
Yes, and I may add that those who serve in peacekeeping have done a magnificent job in foreign countries. Not everything in our military is inefficient. It will still be a costly burden for mobilisation thereof if our infections numbers raise beyond that of the capacity of our public accessible healthcare services.
They are almost finish with a field hospital at Tygerburg hospital at the moment.
 

John Tempus

Executive Member
Joined
Aug 8, 2017
Messages
5,115
It will rise with 10day count down all thanks to our retarded government allowing 17million grant recipients to queue up and infect each other.

Lockdown essentially null and void.
 

Abe53

Member
Joined
Nov 2, 2016
Messages
16
The South African regime (it rules, a government governs) does not have the political will to enforce lock down and thus we will plow through the first wave. With fewer potential patients left, if I were to contract Covid-19 in the second wave, perhaps there will by that time be an ICU bed and ventilator available if I need it.....
The million ront I paid into to my hospital plan over the years seems not to have reserved me such.....
 

Geoff.D

Honorary Master
Joined
Aug 4, 2005
Messages
18,759
It will rise with 10day count down all thanks to our retarded government allowing 17million grant recipients to queue up and infect each other.

Lockdown essentially null and void.

So you had/have a solution offer? What do you think "they" could have done to handle the situation differently?

Millions out of work, millions don't trust the banking system (recall the VBS fiasco), millions need to buy food, those same millions don't have shops close to them ------??????

Reality is the name of the game, it is "flatten the curve" not eliminate all chance of contracting it, just spread it out a bit. Keep the stable door closed by enforcing the country's isolation and hope like hell the virus burns itself out naturally.
At least for this year anyway. Who the H knows what happens long term.
 

Geoff.D

Honorary Master
Joined
Aug 4, 2005
Messages
18,759
Meanwhile, parts of China are now banning the eating of cats and dogs, so maybe they will get around to bats at some stage.
 

Lupus

Honorary Master
Joined
Apr 25, 2006
Messages
30,294
It will rise with 10day count down all thanks to our retarded government allowing 17million grant recipients to queue up and infect each other.

Lockdown essentially null and void.
Okay so using the only stat the we have is that it's 25 people per million that are infected. That means that 17 million would end up being 425 cases?
But we can't work like that as this is supposed to be a super spreader so it's so supposed to be 2.2 for every infected person, but just squaring that would make it 180000 cases. So what numbers do we need to work on to figure this out?
 

Olddude

Well-Known Member
Joined
Oct 7, 2006
Messages
118
Numbers must rise. If one looks at the increase of the number of tests DONE between 29th March and 2nd April they dropped testing to <50 tests per day (published figures). Either Gov is hiding the figures or they don't know how may tests and new positive cases actually exist.
 

AdrianS

Well-Known Member
Joined
Feb 23, 2011
Messages
107
We have yet to test a broadly representative section of the population. Only those tested can reveal infections - many others will be infected but not tested.
 
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