Donald J. Trump: President of the USA Part II Covfefe

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OrbitalDawn

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No citations and bald-faced assertions do not a convincing argument make, imo.

Few people make such a hobby of being wrong on a topic as Heather Mac Donald. She predicted that violent crime in NYC would go "through the roof", because they were backing off aggressive policing. Instead, it fell to 42-year lows.

She also simply asserts that criminologists haven't been able to find racism in the criminal justice system. This is just ridiculously wrong.

I'll share some from that article you can't access.

https://arxiv.org/pdf/1607.05376.pdf
https://www.justice.gov/sites/defau...5/03/04/ferguson_police_department_report.pdf
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...-profits-from-poverty/?utm_term=.cc0cb164322a
https://www.aclum.org/sites/default.../2015/06/reports-black-brown-and-targeted.pdf
https://www.aclu.org/blog/criminal-...s/new-data-reveals-milwaukee-police-stops-are
https://drivingwhileblacknashville.files.wordpress.com/2016/10/driving-while-black-gideons-army.pdf
https://features.propublica.org/wal...ville-pedestrian-violations-racial-profiling/
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/13/...=RelatedCoverage&pgtype=Article&region=Footer
http://faculty.cwsl.edu/benner/aaRacialDisparityinNarcoticsSearchWarrants.pdf

There's much, much more.

Emjay said:
I will say it again. These men are not going to jail for crimes they did not commit. There is more policing in the areas because they are more violent and commit crimes at a higher rate. You are projecting some inherit bias into this process and does not account for their individual agency. We do not police these areas less as a result, because violence will increase and those communities will be severely impacted.

Nope, I just posted reams of evidence that show the opposite. Read the reports.

The report outlined stunning racial disparities in both police traffic stops and use of force, none of which could be explained by "any difference in the rate at which people of different races violate the law." The Justice Department concluded "that these disparities occur, at least in part, because of unlawful bias against and stereotypes about African Americans."

Emjay said:
The underlying reasons of why these areas are so riddled in crime should be addressed and the incarcerations rates should go down.

Yes, I agree it should be addressed. Part of addressing it is stopping racially discriminatory practices like New York did!
 

Gingerbeardman

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How does that relate to recognizing that systemic racism and regulations of segregation have led to specific negative outcomes for groups of people? (which is what OD and cerebus were pointing out). In South Africa, for example, should we ignore the spacial disparities that segregation has created (townships etc) because to try and fix that by direct action would be considered soft bigotry of low expectations?
You know people have a natural tendency to segregate themselves, right? As I understand it, this pattern of self-segregation is only increasing with time, and the racialisation of society only increases the tendency.

I'm not against the idea of social welfare, but the idea of trying to dole out social welfare along racial lines to make up for historic injustices is counter-productive and helps nobody in the long run.
 

Emjay

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No citations and bald-faced assertions do not a convincing argument make, imo.

Few people make such a hobby of being wrong on a topic as Heather Mac Donald. She predicted that violent crime in NYC would go "through the roof", because they were backing off aggressive policing. Instead, it fell to 42-year lows.

She also simply asserts that criminologists haven't been able to find racism in the criminal justice system. This is just ridiculously wrong.

I'll share some from that article you can't access.

https://arxiv.org/pdf/1607.05376.pdf
https://www.justice.gov/sites/defau...5/03/04/ferguson_police_department_report.pdf
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...-profits-from-poverty/?utm_term=.cc0cb164322a
https://www.aclum.org/sites/default.../2015/06/reports-black-brown-and-targeted.pdf
https://www.aclu.org/blog/criminal-...s/new-data-reveals-milwaukee-police-stops-are
https://drivingwhileblacknashville.files.wordpress.com/2016/10/driving-while-black-gideons-army.pdf
https://features.propublica.org/wal...ville-pedestrian-violations-racial-profiling/
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/13/...=RelatedCoverage&pgtype=Article&region=Footer
http://faculty.cwsl.edu/benner/aaRacialDisparityinNarcoticsSearchWarrants.pdf

There's much, much more.

Nope, I just posted reams of evidence that show the opposite. Read the reports.

Yes, I agree it should be addressed. Part of addressing it is stopping racially discriminatory practices like New York did!

What is your solution? That black communities receive less policing? How did New York fix systemic racism?
 

Gingerbeardman

Executive Member
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No citations and bald-faced assertions do not a convincing argument make, imo.

Few people make such a hobby of being wrong on a topic as Heather Mac Donald. She predicted that violent crime in NYC would go "through the roof", because they were backing off aggressive policing. Instead, it fell to 42-year lows.

She also simply asserts that criminologists haven't been able to find racism in the criminal justice system. This is just ridiculously wrong.

I'll share some from that article you can't access.

https://arxiv.org/pdf/1607.05376.pdf
https://www.justice.gov/sites/defau...5/03/04/ferguson_police_department_report.pdf
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...-profits-from-poverty/?utm_term=.cc0cb164322a
https://www.aclum.org/sites/default.../2015/06/reports-black-brown-and-targeted.pdf
https://www.aclu.org/blog/criminal-...s/new-data-reveals-milwaukee-police-stops-are
https://drivingwhileblacknashville.files.wordpress.com/2016/10/driving-while-black-gideons-army.pdf
https://features.propublica.org/wal...ville-pedestrian-violations-racial-profiling/
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/13/...=RelatedCoverage&pgtype=Article&region=Footer
http://faculty.cwsl.edu/benner/aaRacialDisparityinNarcoticsSearchWarrants.pdf

There's much, much more.



Nope, I just posted reams of evidence that show the opposite. Read the reports.





Yes, I agree it should be addressed. Part of addressing it is stopping racially discriminatory practices like New York did!
How about getting some real sources. The ones you've quoted are garbage tier.

So Robert Gebeloff, a data journalist at The Times, transposed Census Bureau information about race, poverty levels and homeownership onto a precinct map. Then he dropped the police data into four buckets based on the percentage of a precinct’s residents who were black or Hispanic.

What we found roughly aligned with the police explanation. In precincts that were more heavily black and Hispanic, the rate at which people called to complain about marijuana was generally higher.
What that meant wasn’t so simple: Some experts said it was well known that police calls tended to be higher in black and Hispanic neighborhoods. In this case, they said it had more to do with a paucity of alternative ways of getting help.
In a privately owned Upper East Side apartment, residents can call the building manager if marijuana smoke is wafting through the windows or air ducts. In public housing projects in Brooklyn, residents can’t get help from building staff members for major maintenance issues, much less for marijuana smoke.
Mr. Gebeloff wanted to check our work. Andrew Beveridge, a sociology professor at Queens College who often works with The Times, asked Jeffrey Fagan, a professor at Columbia Law School, for his advice. Professor Fagan suggested we run a different kind of statistical model that was more commonly used in criminology studies, and also consider the borough where an arrest took place.
So we ran our analysis again, this time looking at a whole range of factors that could help us understand marijuana arrests, like the racial composition, poverty and violent crime rate of precincts. Sahil Chinoy, a graphics intern at The Times, wrote the code to check whether the examples we saw in the data were part of a broader, statistically significant trend.
And they were. What we discovered was that when two precincts had the same rate of marijuana calls, the one with a higher arrest rate was almost always home to more black people. The police said that had to do with violent crime rates being higher in those precincts, which commanders often react to by deploying more officers.
"We don't like these stats, so lets invent a way to make them racist." lol.
 

Gingerbeardman

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DxwlzLiWkAEqMVW.jpg
 

rambo919

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A superthread of south africans aggressively arguing american politics.... murica truely does rule the world..... any of you vote in their elections as well?
 

Gingerbeardman

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rambo919

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Your assumptions are as reactive as ever. Always over-simplifying with granularity.... the question is does it take effort or is it automatic. I'll just leave you to your fighting the right war in the wrong theatre which you probably do because it does not carry the same level of risk as the one right on your doorstep. We really do annoy each other too easily.
 

Gingerbeardman

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Your assumptions are as reactive as ever. Always over-simplifying with granularity.... the question is does it take effort or is it automatic. I'll just leave you to your fighting the right war in the wrong theatre which you probably do because it does not carry the same level of risk as the one right on your doorstep. We really do annoy each other too easily.
Apologies, we can't all manage to be as courageous and propaganda-free as you.
 
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Gingerbeardman

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https://quillette.com/2019/01/25/how-real-is-systemic-racism-today/

With endogenous causes rendered taboo, all that is left to account for racial disparities is exogenous causes, especially racial discrimination. But everyone admits that discrimination by individuals has decreased in recent decades. The picture below shows the results of a University of Illinois survey which concluded that, “One of the most substantial changes in white racial attitudes has been the movement from very substantial opposition to the principle of racial equality to one of almost universal support.”


The absence of discriminatory attitudes doesn’t mean the playing field has been completely leveled, of course. A past bias, once justified, may persist long after the world has changed. Robert Moses’s racist-inspired building practices in New York leave their mark today. It’s not hard to point to lingering effects of past racism on parents, children, and neighborhoods.

These effects act in complex ways. Proving their existence, much less measuring them with precision, is almost impossible. Many effects are delayed, different individuals vary in their reactions, and allegedly discriminatory actions are often unintentional.

The problem is that these complex and little-understood effects have been bundled together into one toxic package, labeled “systemic racism” (the terms institutional and structural racism are also used).

The word racism is thrown around a lot these days, but a precise definition is hard to find. The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy passes. Wikipedia comes up with: “Racism is the belief in the superiority of one race over another…”

Other definitions add reasons for racism. Particularly popular is the idea that “inferior” races have unchangeable (“genetically determined”) attributes that render them less able than the favored (usually white) race. But a definition of racism doesn’t have to make reference to the cause. Basically, racism is intentional discrimination against a race for no reason at all: You just think white people are better than black people and so whites and blacks should be treated differently. Preference by itself—you prefer to spend time with members of your own race, say—is not ipso facto racist. Only if you think that a person should be treated differently just because of her race, does it qualify as racist.

By none of these definitions can the complex, lagged effects of past discrimination be termed (systemically) racist. The effects I will discuss are not intentional—if they were, they would be individual racism, not systemic. They are not based directly on race, for the most part. If a black child fails to get into a good college because she scored poorly on the SAT, she fails because of her score not her race—even if her low score might be traced to poor rearing conditions that are a legacy of segregation or past discrimination.

Effects like this are, possibly, effects of racism in the past. They are not racism now, systemic or otherwise, by any reasonable definition. Failure to acknowledge this distinction has unjustly stigmatized white people and is a cause of needless conflict. Let me give some examples of the problems with this pernicious concept.

A 2017 review paper in the respected medical journal The Lancet, authored by several public health researchers, looks at the health implications of what they term “structural racism.” They refer to the “rich social science literature conceptualizing structural racism” emphasizing that the idea goes beyond “unfair treatment as experienced by individuals.” Yet in the next paragraph they say, “Any account of structural racism within the USA must start with the experiences of black people…” This inconsistency is never resolved: are the individual experiences of racism by African Americans relevant or not? Apparently not, as the paper goes on to discuss racial disparities as evidence of structural racism.

One example is this: “The legacy of these [ostensibly race-neutral] policies is that the annual rate of incarceration of black men is 3.8–10.5 times greater than that of white men, across all age groups…” which is obviously unfair, hence racist. Unfair—unless the rate of offending is also skewed. Men notoriously commit more crimes, especially violent crimes, than women. We do not cry “sexism” when more males than females wind up in prison. Is disparity in incarceration rates between black and white men another example of racism? Or do black men in fact commit proportionately more crimes than white?

The SPLC has weighed in on this issue, citing a relevant report from the U.S. Bureau of Justice, “Race and Hispanic Origin of Victims and Offenders, 2012-15.” They headline the report: “White supremacists’ favorite myths about black crime rates take another hit from BJS study: Vast majority of most crimes are committed by a person of the same race as the victim, Bureau of Justice Statistics reports.” It goes on to say that “White supremacists… claim that … African-Americans, are far more crime-prone and the source of most violent crime against whites.”

Either willfully or because the writer doesn’t understand the issue, the headline misses the point of the BJS report. First, the U.S. population is 65 percent white and 12 percent black. It is likely, therefore, that more crimes can be attributed to whites than to blacks. No surprise there. And it has been known for many years that most violent crimes are intra, not inter-racial. Blacks are the victims largely of black criminals, whites of white.

The real issue is “crime-proneness,” which depends both on the number of black and white perpetrators and on the sizes of the black and white populations. Population size is not mentioned in the SPLC article. There are fewer blacks than whites in the U.S., therefore we can expect fewer black than white perpetrators. But how much fewer? Well, if we include population figures (which also appear in the BJS report), we see that there are 5.3 times as many whites as blacks in the US. So, the real question is, are there 5.3 times as many white as black criminals? Well, no. From Table 1 in the BJS report, 43.8 percent of perpetrators are white and 22.7 percent are black, so the ratio of white to black criminals is just 1.93. In other words, blacks are 5.3/1.93 = 2.79 times as likely to be perpetrators as whites. A disparity in criminality may have something to do with the incarceration disparity, although it may not be the whole story. But the differential incarceration rate by itself proves nothing.

Again, these data need to be unpacked to understand what is really going on. Young males are more likely to act violently than older ones. The black population tends to be younger than the white. Does controlling for age reduce the black-white disparity? No doubt other relevant variables should be examined. The point is that the incarceration disparity may have a non-racial cause. Absent a lot more research, it should not be blamed immediately on racism. Which is not to take away from cogent criticisms of the excessive US incarceration rate in general. The point is that incarceration-rate disparities are not necessarily evidence of racism. This is an example of what Quillette contributor Coleman Hughes calls the disparity fallacy, which “holds that unequal outcomes between two groups must be caused primarily by discrimination…” Indeed, I will argue the opposite: that a charge of “racial discrimination” can be justified only when other possible causes of disparities have been eliminated.

I'd be willing to bet that stupid people are more likely to get treated badly by cops than smart people... :whistling:
 
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greg0205

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When you wanted a wall but got a cave instead.

Donnie Treason is opening government for three weeks... In the Rose Garden now, lying and rambling on about migrants, MS-13, turning right and walls. But he's not getting his big, beautiful wall. Sad.

Also, doing a lot of his Adderall sniffing thing, and reminiscing about his halcyon days duct-taping women's mouths.

Nancy's spanked him twice this week and I suspect president Coulter is going to be pissed.
 

greg0205

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Three schools of thought on why he caved on Twitter.

Air traffic grounded in NY... or to distract from Roger Stone's arrest... But y'all know it's 'cos Nancy wouldn't give him his TV time, right?
 

Techne

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When you wanted a wall but got a cave instead.

Donnie Treason is opening government for three weeks... In the Rose Garden now, lying and rambling on about migrants, MS-13, turning right and walls. But he's not getting his big, beautiful wall. Sad.

Also, doing a lot of his Adderall sniffing thing, and reminiscing about his halcyon days duct-taping women's mouths.

Nancy's spanked him twice this week and I suspect president Coulter is going to be pissed.
Nancy for president Lol!
 
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