I'd say we're reaching a point where Eskom will NOT get financed in a way that is economically viable. IE - yes, it might get debt at 20% interest (we're already at c. 15% btw); but doing that means it's not viable to buy Medupi or any other long term investments in infrastructure.
http://www.bdlive.co.za/opinion/col...ss-of-eskom-bond-issue-a-matter-of-definition
There's a point at which they won't be able to build more supply because the interest they get charged will mean the power will cost too much.
Just look at the numbers -- if you want to borrow R100m over 20 years, at a 5% interest rate, you need to pay back R8000/month.
If the interest rate is 10%, the payback is R11,750/month
at 15%, the payback is R16,000/month
at 20% you need to pay back R20,000/month
at 30% it's R30,000/month
Put that another way if that R100m investment buys me 10,000kwh per month, the price per kWh goes from R0.80/kWh to R3.00/kWh as the interest rate rises.
I think you'll find if power costs were R3.00/kWh you'd get a LOT less people buying power from Eskom... (i.e. they'd just generate it themselves for less and more reliably!)
Put another way, at some point any investors (foreign, or government) will take a long hard look and say "sorry, I'm not throwing more good money after bad" and at the same time customers will also simply start switching off.
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-- oops! -- replace m with k... it's the Roman inside me 