Eskom not acknowledging role of reduced demand in improved generation performance

[leon.davibe]

@Lupus

Peak demand early 2023 and end of 2024 don't differ that much ie in post #42. March 2023 we see 24 to 29GW peaks

And Sept 2024 we see 23-28 GW peaks

So the difference 7.5% less production are likely in off peak times

the times solar is impacting when Sun shines and when people empty their batteries

Surely if we have big smelters out of business and none taking their place we would see a bigger reduction in peak

Many don't want to cook on battery to reduce the C they pull and choose gas or to still use Eskom and leave the batteries for low C usage night time

The problem is data has to be interpreted and can be bent to suit your/my belief

Supporting data is what has to sway you one way or the other

Bigger dips between peak and off peak
And the peaks still as it was before

Plus we are not in a recession (yet)

Is what sways me towards solar

Economic growth is linked to energy usage

If Eskom is selling less it has to come from somewhere

 

[Lupus]

So you admit that during the day eskom sales are taking a pounding? Out of that 7.5%, how much would you say is because of solar installs?

The smelters would be the big users, Rustenburg went idle in Sep 2023 that's roughly 900MW.
Plus all the other businesses that closed, there might be other big hitters that closed.
Solar might be 20% of that 7.5% maybe 30%.
The other demand hitters is the energy efficiency drive, things now are not the same as even ten years ago. Tvs use less power, lights, fridges, aircons and and.

 

[Lupus]

@Lupus

Peak demand early 2023 and end of 2024 don't differ that much ie in post #42. March 2023 we see 24 to 29GW peaks

And Sept 2024 we see 23-28 GW peaks

So the difference 7.5% less production are likely in off peak times

the times solar is impacting when Sun shines and when people empty their batteries

Surely if we have big smelters out of business and none taking their place we would see a bigger reduction in peak

Many don't want to cook on battery to reduce the C they pull and choose gas or to still use Eskom and leave the batteries for low C usage night time

The problem is data has to be interpreted and can be bent to suit your/my belief

Supporting data is what has to sway you one way or the other

Bigger dips between peak and off peak
And the peaks still as it was before

Plus we are not in a recession (yet)

Is what sways me towards solar

Economic growth is linked to energy usage

If Eskom is selling less it has to come from somewhere

You sway to solar cause someone put it into your head, not the big closures like the Rustenburg smelter in late 2023 that's almost a GW off. Plus the refineries

 

[Lupus]

Eskom: Solar energy does not help during peak load-shedding hours

More businesses are taking on solar projects, what does this mean?

mg.co.za

Chris has been saying solar has helped Eskom since July 2023, but as we know 2023 wasn't great.
Even they say it doesn't help much at peak

 

[leon.davibe]

You sway to solar cause someone put it into your head, not the big closures like the Rustenburg smelter in late 2023 that's almost a GW off. Plus the refineries

ditto

massive closures would not only mean reduced total consumption, it would mean reduced peaks too

in SA our peak demands hasn't changed that much over the last few years
sure there are seasonal shifts

we do have economic expansion that would need energy expansion
so likely any efficiency gains are gobbled up by economic expansion

 

[leon.davibe]

Eskom: Solar energy does not help during peak load-shedding hours

More businesses are taking on solar projects, what does this mean?

mg.co.za

Chris has been saying solar has helped Eskom since July 2023, but as we know 2023 wasn't great.
Even they say it doesn't help much at peak

most solar users try and stay away from high C activities to prolong battery life
ie cook from eskom and leave the battery to carry the low C idle overnight usage

or shift cooking to gas,

we do have population growth too
so the peak actually has to go up
so efficiency gains , closures and solar users might be ofseting population growth

many factors at play

point being less was demanded from eskom and now we dont have shedding
in other words this notion that eskom solved shedding with better maintenance may be bullshit too

anybody performs better when not under pressure

 

[Lupus]

most solar users try and stay away from high C activities to prolong battery life
ie cook from eskom and leave the battery to carry the low C idle overnight usage

or shift cooking to gas,

we do have population growth too
so the peak actually has to go up
so efficiency gains , closures and solar users might be ofseting population growth

many factors at play

point being less was demanded from eskom and now we dont have shedding
in other words this notion that eskom solved shedding with better maintenance may be bullshit too

anybody performs better when not under pressure

You're forgetting that they added back the 3 kusile units, plus another one came online that's 3600mw right there, plus they are using the oems and less dodgy contractors

 

[chrisc]

As a small solar installer, none of my installations meet Eskom's criteria for various aspects, so they are not counted.
In total, my customers contribute 11 MW in private power

The largest was a wine farm near Franschhoek. Here there are 96 panels and 70kW of inverters connected. The owner has no interest whatsoever in complying with Eskom's rules. He is a Belgian electronics engineer and closely supervised the installation and suggested some alterations. He simply switched off the 3-phase feed from Eskom. This was in 2023. It runs his wine chillers and everything on the farm

 

[leon.davibe]

You're forgetting that they added back the 3 kusile units, plus another one came online that's 3600mw right there, plus they are using the oems and less dodgy contractorsare fixing things

They sold less energy
If the peaks are about same what gives?

This is common maths man area under the graph , off peak were solar/ batteries tend to operate

Now yes I get a person can have tunnel vision

other figures don't support this down turn , ie economic growth is slightly up not down , while energy is down
6+5=12 ?

I ain't drinking the koolaid that Eskom is suddenly doing what they could not do for decades

 

[SauRoNZA]

Not the 2800 businesses that closed from 2023 and through 2024?

How many new businesses opened though?

 

[leon.davibe]

How many new businesses opened though?

Yea I laugh at this in George this cycle used to be heavy, some would cycle every 1/2 years

And I always thought to myself what does the new occupants think they have that the others didn't

It is better lately as the area has seen more influx

 

[SauRoNZA]

The smelters would be the big users, Rustenburg went idle in Sep 2023 that's roughly 900MW.
Plus all the other businesses that closed, there might be other big hitters that closed.
Solar might be 20% of that 7.5% maybe 30%.
The other demand hitters is the energy efficiency drive, things now are not the same as even ten years ago. Tvs use less power, lights, fridges, aircons and and.

Very good point on appliances being more energy efficient now, even the likes of modern air cons aren’t heavy users any longer and many people have alternative energy modern underfloor heating systems and the like.

As for solar I think you are ignoring the entire residential contingent and just how much of an impact that may have.

Eskom has lost 10mWh annually to myself alone and at this point I reckon between friends and family pretty much half are on a similar solar setup.

 

[Lupus]

Very good point on appliances being more energy efficient now, even the likes of modern air cons aren’t heavy users any longer and many people have alternative energy modern underfloor heating systems and the like.

As for solar I think you are ignoring the entire residential contingent and just how much of an impact that may have.

Eskom has lost 10mWh annually to myself alone and at this point I reckon between friends and family pretty much half are on a similar solar setup.

I'm not ignoring that. Residential is only 20% of demand, how much of that 20% do you think can afford solar?
Especially solar that isn't just for backup during shedding but able to really get people to save?
Looking around my neighbourhood it's probably 20% of the houses that have panels, out of that 20% extended outages maybe 75%, of that still have lights around 5am

 

[SauRoNZA]

I'm not ignoring that. Residential is only 20% of demand, how much of that 20% do you think can afford solar?
Especially solar that isn't just for backup during shedding but able to really get people to save?
Looking around my neighbourhood it's probably 20% of the houses that have panels, out of that 20% extended outages maybe 75%, of that still have lights around 5am

Is that 20% a known fact or just an assumption?

I mean very few people will be 100% solar, I’m not but that doesn’t mean much as they are likely only giving Eskom 10% of what they used to.

I’m around 85% self reliant mostly because I leave the air cons on harvest the batteries.

 

[Lupus]

Is that 20% a known fact or just an assumption?

I mean very few people will be 100% solar, I’m not but that doesn’t mean much as they are likely only giving Eskom 10% of what they used to.

I’m around 85% self reliant mostly because I leave the air cons on harvest the batteries.

Research done, previous studies before 2020 was 19% this one from 2020 shows it was down 17%

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/345724298_Production_scheduling_heuristics_for_frequent_Load-shedding_scenarios_A_knowledge_Engineering_approach

This was the 2019 study

South Africa: electricity consumption by sector | Statista

As of 2019, the industry sector was the leading electricity consumer in South Africa, with up to 56 percent of the total consumption.

www.statista.com

 

[SauRoNZA]

Research done, previous studies before 2020 was 19% this one from 2020 shows it was down 17%

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/345724298_Production_scheduling_heuristics_for_frequent_Load-shedding_scenarios_A_knowledge_Engineering_approach

View attachment 1785564
This was the 2019 study

South Africa: electricity consumption by sector | Statista

As of 2019, the industry sector was the leading electricity consumer in South Africa, with up to 56 percent of the total consumption.

www.statista.com

View attachment 1785566

I mean solar is definitely affecting that industry portion as well looking at the Vodacom’s, Pick & Pays, Checkers and Discoveries going all solar and those are businesses that only need daylight.

Not to mention many of the malls leveraging solar as well.

It must have some impact, the question is really just how much.

Agriculture is also leaning heavily on solar or even wind now.

 

[Lupus]

I mean solar is definitely affecting that industry portion as well looking at the Vodacom’s, Pick & Pays, Checkers and Discoveries going all solar and those are businesses that only need daylight.

Not to mention many of the malls leveraging solar as well.

It must have some impact, the question is really just how much.

Agriculture is also leaning heavily on solar or even wind now.

Those are offsetting their usage, they aren't cutting off entirely. A lot of the time that may be 35% of their daytime usage cut by the sun. Also Vodacom and Discovery would have their onsite data centers still running into the night, those would also more than likely not be on the solar side for uptime reasons.
Pick n Pays and Checkers would also still be using power when the sun is down, the fridges don't stop, the lights are on lower energy mode sure and the aircons may be off, but fridges are still running, their PCs are probably still on as well. So yeah during the day when it's sunny it might help, but it's not the reason we don't have load shedding now as people like to think.
Solar is great for bringing down demand, especially for households and smaller businesses who can also use batteries during peaks to really help, but I don't think it's had that massive of an impact as say the closing of businesses and bigger industries like refineries and smelters, I mean 2 big ones closed from 2021 to 2023 that's 1400 to 1800MW off the grid, refineries closed 2022 through to 2023 as well.

 

[SauRoNZA]

Those are offsetting their usage, they aren't cutting off entirely. A lot of the time that may be 35% of their daytime usage cut by the sun. Also Vodacom and Discovery would have their onsite data centers still running into the night, those would also more than likely not be on the solar side for uptime reasons.
Pick n Pays and Checkers would also still be using power when the sun is down, the fridges don't stop, the lights are on lower energy mode sure and the aircons may be off, but fridges are still running, their PCs are probably still on as well. So yeah during the day when it's sunny it might help, but it's not the reason we don't have load shedding now as people like to think.
Solar is great for bringing down demand, especially for households and smaller businesses who can also use batteries during peaks to really help, but I don't think it's had that massive of an impact as say the closing of businesses and bigger industries like refineries and smelters, I mean 2 big ones closed from 2021 to 2023 that's 1400 to 1800MW off the grid, refineries closed 2022 through to 2023 as well.

Sure there would be some usage at night still, but if we take purely daylight into account that must cut their overall usage by at least 40%.

Also I haven’t seen a data centre lately that isn’t running on solar. Sure they can’t do it as the only source, but they would be stupid not to use it when it’s an easy redundancy.

I don’t think it’s taken load shedding away, but I do think it’s hurting Eskom.

 

[Lupus]

Sure there would be some usage at night still, but if we take purely daylight into account that must cut their overall usage by at least 40%.

Also I haven’t seen a data centre lately that isn’t running on solar. Sure they can’t do it as the only source, but they would be stupid not to use it when it’s an easy redundancy.

I don’t think it’s taken load shedding away, but I do think it’s hurting Eskom.

Sadly Eskom is hurting Eskom, they told us to use less energy, so we did now they reaping their rewards for our diligence .
The main part of the Dc won't use solar, still too unreliable, they might use to control certain aspects, but not keeping the servers running. When working at the Campus in Bryanston way back yonder the size of the generators to keep those DCs running during a power failure could supply a large part of Bryanson as well. You could feel the floors vibrate with them kicking in, you'd need 95% of the campus covered in solar panels to maybe cover one of their full DCs.
It's also one of the reasons a lot of overseas companies are looking at firing up old nuclear plants, computing takes power, solar doesn't supply enough reliably yet.

 

[Lupus]

Sadly another big player down

Axe falls on 3,500 jobs in South Africa

Axe falls on 3,500 jobs in South Africa Despite attempts to save the business, Arcelormittal South Africa says it has no choice but to close its Longs Business.

mybroadband.co.za

Causing more demand to drop