Forget about herd immunity for Covid-19 - Discovery Health chief actuary

Lupus

Honorary Master
Joined
Apr 25, 2006
Messages
36,729
People keep going on and on about herd immunity, we were never going to get herd immunity, this isn't smallpox or polio which were spread differently. This is I hate to say it, like the flu which has had endemics all the time, spread pattern is very similar to the flu. Hell even the common cold, seeing as 15% of all common colds are a strain of coronavirus.
 

Louis72

Expert Member
Joined
Jun 15, 2010
Messages
1,411
Ah great another morning when you open MyCOVID and get blasted by another so called expert opinion…. How many waves are already predicted by experts? July 2022?
 

Gordon_R

Honorary Master
Joined
Jul 5, 2009
Messages
18,361
Previous discussion on this same topic:
 

BBSA

Honorary Master
Joined
Jul 11, 2005
Messages
17,197
All the covidiots resisting vaccination campaigns are not helping either.
From the article :

"He said if you’ve had Covid-19 before, your risk of getting it again if you come into contact with the virus is about 20% to 25%.

Even if you are vaccinated, the data emerging across the world is that you have a risk of about 20% of getting infected."

I don't see a big difference TBH.

BTW, name calling is not going to accomplish anything.
 

R13...

Honorary Master
Joined
Aug 4, 2008
Messages
39,199
One day soon I must try the antibody to see if I may have gotten it.
 

Lupus

Honorary Master
Joined
Apr 25, 2006
Messages
36,729
From the article :

"He said if you’ve had Covid-19 before, your risk of getting it again if you come into contact with the virus is about 20% to 25%.

Even if you are vaccinated, the data emerging across the world is that you have a risk of about 20% of getting infected."

I don't see a big difference TBH.

BTW, name calling is not going to accomplish anything.
Sigh...

1629871092057.png
So on top of the original 20% chance of getting it, you're chances are now reduced a further 80% from that, so it's not that the vaccinated have a 20% chance of getting it, it's that 20% of the vaccinated may get it, but they are already 80% more protected over the original 20%. A little bit of mental math there.
 

rvZA

Executive Member
Joined
Jan 3, 2021
Messages
5,728
Guess Covid-19 is here to stay then. Stock up for the alcohol ban in 2026 so long.

Covid is not here to stay until 2026. It is here to stay infinitely. Covid changed the world. We all need to start getting use to a new world of wearing masks on a permanent basis, travel restrictions across the globe and lockdowns as and when needed when new spikes occurred. Even if 100% of the population is vaccinated, people will still get the virus, it will still spread.

For some months now the world has been warned by Israel that Herd Immunity is not possible. Most scientists already warned last year that the virus is here to stay and will not be done away with. We all will also be getting booster shots permanently every 6-8 months.
 

Lupus

Honorary Master
Joined
Apr 25, 2006
Messages
36,729
Covid is not here to stay until 2026. It is here to stay infinitely. Covid changed the world. We all need to start getting use to a new world of wearing masks on a permanent basis, travel restrictions across the globe and lockdowns as and when needed when new spikes occurred.

For some months now the world has been warned by Israel that Herd Immunity is not possible. Most scientists already warned last year that the virus is here to stay and will not be done away with.
Don't talk out your rear... Once more and more people get vaccinated it becomes endemic, which means you don't need lockdowns you control it the same way we do other viruses of a similar nature. The vaccines are already showing massive hospital drops in countries with high vaccine rates.
 

rambo919

Honorary Master
Joined
Jul 30, 2008
Messages
17,258
All the covidiots resisting vaccination campaigns are not helping either.
Have you been paying attention? They are openly admitting that herd immunity was never their intention in the first place. Their intention was to get everyone vaccinated with false promises of herd immunity.

How do vaccines help against a rapidly mutating virus? Even pfizer is looking at going back to the books to develop variant specific vaccines. Enjoy your infinite amount of jabs.
Funny enough.... the more jabs per person there are the more likely mutations are to happen from both vaccine and wild strains..... which will very likely cause a runaway cascade of mutations rendering vaccines completely useless. We are doing nothing more than rushing towards the end, the world has gone crazy.

Sigh...

So on top of the original 20% chance of getting it, you're chances are now reduced a further 80% from that, so it's not that the vaccinated have a 20% chance of getting it, it's that 20% of the vaccinated may get it, but they are already 80% more protected over the original 20%. A little bit of mental math there.
And if everyone is vaccinated it simplifies down to 20% universally.... i don't see the point of splitting hairs like this.
 

rambo919

Honorary Master
Joined
Jul 30, 2008
Messages
17,258
Don't talk out your rear... Once more and more people get vaccinated it becomes endemic, which means you don't need lockdowns you control it the same way we do other viruses of a similar nature. The vaccines are already showing massive hospital drops in countries with high vaccine rates.
That is the current promise.... if by some miracle they actually get everyone that kind of vaccinated.... the goalpost will shift once again. It's an endless game of bait and switch.
 

rvZA

Executive Member
Joined
Jan 3, 2021
Messages
5,728
Don't talk out your rear... Once more and more people get vaccinated it becomes endemic, which means you don't need lockdowns you control it the same way we do other viruses of a similar nature. The vaccines are already showing massive hospital drops in countries with high vaccine rates.

That we all know. Israel already showed us that new daily infections can drop to below 20. Deaths and hospitalizations can drop to 0-2 per day. But, they are currently also showing what happens if you do not get booster shots, as vaccine and natural protection wears off after 3-6 months. 7,000-10,000 new infections a day and 100-300 new deaths a day is what awaits.
 

Lupus

Honorary Master
Joined
Apr 25, 2006
Messages
36,729
Have you been paying attention? They are openly admitting that herd immunity was never their intention in the first place. Their intention was to get everyone vaccinated with false promises of herd immunity.


Funny enough.... the more jabs per person there are the more likely mutations are to happen from both vaccine and wild strains..... which will very likely cause a runaway cascade of mutations rendering vaccines completely useless. We are doing nothing more than rushing towards the end, the world has gone crazy.


And if everyone is vaccinated it simplifies down to 20% universally.... i don't see the point of splitting hairs like this.
Actually no it doesn't simplify down to 20%, it would be at most 4%
 

rambo919

Honorary Master
Joined
Jul 30, 2008
Messages
17,258
Actually no it doesn't simplify down to 20%, it would be at most 4%
It's (so they say) 80% effective for the vaccinated population.... if the entire population is vaccinated..... this does not translate to 96%.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Swa

Lupus

Honorary Master
Joined
Apr 25, 2006
Messages
36,729
That we all know. Israel already showed us that new daily infections can drop to below 20. Deaths and hospitalizations can drop to 0-2 per day. But, they are currently also showing what happens if you do not get booster shots, as vaccine and natural protection wears off after 3-6 months. 7,000-10,000 new infections a day and 100-300 new deaths a day is what awaits.
What, they've at most had 55 deaths a day since vaccinations with 9000+ infections.
Even the UK sitting at 32 000 a day has 152 deaths a day peak?
 

rvZA

Executive Member
Joined
Jan 3, 2021
Messages
5,728
What, they've at most had 55 deaths a day since vaccinations with 9000+ infections.
Even the UK sitting at 32 000 a day has 152 deaths a day peak?

Sorry, you are right. They are between 35-55 new deaths a day, up from 0-2 per day. Hospital admissions are increasing by 150-300 people with serious conditions among previously fully vaccinated people.
 

Lupus

Honorary Master
Joined
Apr 25, 2006
Messages
36,729
Sorry, you are right. They are between 35-55 new deaths a day, up from 0-2. Hospital admissions are increasing by 150-300 people with serious conditions among previously fully vaccinated people.
Okay so you see my explanation on efficacy?
 
Top