Global Warming - running out of time to prevent ECONOMIC disaster

Phronesis

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Lol, well, if the datasets are the same, why are the graphs so different.......
http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc.lt (mine)
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/uahncdc.lt (yours)

They are the same, referred to as the "old" ones in the graph.

The other one you linked is referred to as the new one.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate...amsu_channel_tlt_anomalies_land_and_ocean.txt

Do try and keep up ;). here ya go... again.
picture.php
Draw your own conclusions.


http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpre.../uah_jun09.png (yours)
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate...msu2007-pg.gif (And no, its not mine, its from the NESDIS)

And ffs, STOP LINKING TO UNREFERENCED STUFF, its infuriating, stop it.
What's the matter? Use your OWN DATA to draw the graphs. Here is a hint, use excel.
 

BattleMoose

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They are the same, referred to as the "old" ones in the graph.
The other one you linked is referred to as the new one.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/..._and_ocean.txt

Do try and keep up . here ya go... again.

I suggest you learn to read, try and identify your reading failure.

Lol, well, if the datasets are the same, why are the graphs so different.......

http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2009/07/uah_jun09.png(yours)
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2007/ann/msu2007-pg.gif and no, its not mine, its from the NESDIS)

What's the matter? Use your OWN DATA to draw the graphs. Here is a hint, use excel.

You don't even understand the criticism. The complaint wasn't about what data you are using. Its that your not telling anyone where that graph comes from, where it was published, who published it or what data its of. This is standard practise in any kind of scientific discussion. 37 pages in such a discussion and you still dont know this!
 
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Phronesis

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I suggest you learn to read, try and identify your reading failure.





You don't even understand the criticism. The complaint wasn't about what data you are using. Its that your not telling anyone where that graph comes from, where it was published, who published it or what data its of. This is standard practise in any kind of scientific discussion. 37 pages in such a discussion and you still dont know this!
You know what, I think it is about time you take a deeeep breath, look at the graph below and draw your own conclusions. This is getting nowhere.

Here you go. This is the graph generated from the datasets. Use it don't use it.

1) "OLD" refers to the following sets of data as they are exactly the same:
http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc.lt The one I used in the previous graphs.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/uahncdc.lt the dataset you provided from NOAA.

2) "NEW" refers to the following set of data you provided from NOAA.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate...amsu_channel_tlt_anomalies_land_and_ocean.txt

picture.php
Draw your own conclusions.

P.S. BCO, be so kind to inform battlemoose about my position.
 
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BattleMoose

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Its like, you don't even understand that there are two completely different graphs.....

And woah, did you actually make that graph yourself?!
 

Phronesis

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Its like, you don't even understand that there are two completely different graphs.....
With HUGE, MASSIVE, EARTH SHATTERING differences? Meanwhile...

And woah, did you actually make that graph yourself?!
Hini hint.... excel. Here they are again, all of them with the same y-axis for easy comparisons and with ALL the relevant data.

GISS temps
HadCrut3 temps
UAH satelite temps.

picture.php

GISS HADCRUT3 1880-Present
picture.php

GISS HADCRUT3 UAH 1979 Present with trendlines​

Now do you have a problem? you are able to draw the graphs yourself aren't you?
 

BattleMoose

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With HUGE, MASSIVE, EARTH SHATTERING differences? Meanwhile...

Actually yes, they are completely different. Here they are again, because obviously, you haven't clicked on the links yet.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2007/ann/msu2007-pg.gif
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2009/07/uah_jun09.png

Let me put this bluntly. YOU'RE NOT QUALIFIED to interpret this data. And I certainly do not and have never pretended to be. You have absolutely no idea or any understanding of how the these data are actually measured or averaged out to develop these global averages. Or what problems existed with the data before or how they were corrected.

Additionally, with your complete absence of an argument, I am going to have to assume that you are using this data to assume GW isn't happening, which is so abhorrently disingenuous.

The National Environmental Satellite, data and information services as well as the University of Alabama, Huntsville are qualified to interpret this data. And they produce a VERY DIFFERENT GRAPH WITH EARTH SHATTERING DIFFERENCES. They are also not afraid of concluding, and they conclude from the /same/ data, that we are warming per decade by 0.12 degrees per decade.

This probably means you actually write for "watts up with that"?

EDIT: I cannot actually accept the fact that you are actually comfortable with interpreting this kind of data! Its just so unbelievable. insane
 
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Phronesis

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Is this how you respond when the RAW data is being presented?

BCO, please help this person with regards to my standpoint. This is getting sad now.
 

The_Unbeliever

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insulting somebody else is not fun

please stop the insults and discuss it in a civilized manner.
 

BCO

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P.S. BCO, be so kind to inform battlemoose about my position.

BCO, please help this person with regards to my standpoint. This is getting sad now.

Sorry, was out of the office for this afternoon.

Alright, here's how I understand Phrony's position:

After a lot of back and forth I eventually posted this:

Are we not (sort of) agreed on the following, based on our discussion over the last few pages?

a) there is some interesting new research coming out that challenges our understanding of (A)GW.

b) the scientific process is working properly. There are no massive global conspiracies involved.

c) if the research in (a) above stands up to further scrutiny by the climate science community, if its results can be replicated and if it better fits the available data, it will become the accepted theory of global warming/climate change.

d) the process described in (c) above takes time.

To which Phronesis replied:


My understanding then, of Phronesis' standpoint on the matter is thus (feel free to correct me):

"The current theory of AGW is the most valid we have until proven otherwise. That being said, there is other research out there that holds some promise for unseating the current mainstream position."

Now, if indeed that is your position, Phrony, I would I agree with you to a very large degree - I only differ on the likelihood of De Freitas' or Svensmark's research supplanting the current accepted stance.

I don't believe that it's worth arguing over such a difference - time will tell.
 

Fieldy

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I am inclined to think that there is a bit of a coverup or conspiracy going on.

I have seen many scientists going public that the IPCC has no interest in Real Science, only what their computer models forcast and what put forward a political agenda.

Recently I noticed this

Climate Revolt: World's Largest Science Group 'Startled' By Outpouring of Scientists Rejecting Man-Made Climate Fears! Clamor for Editor to Be Removed!

Scientists seek to remove climate fear promoting editor and 'trade him to New York Times or Washington Post'
[Update July 31, 2009: Scientist Accuses American Chemical Society Editor of 'censoring of articles and letters' that reject man-made global warming claims! Many of the members have not only expressed their disgust, they are contemplating leaving the group' ]

An outpouring of skeptical scientists who are members of the American Chemical Society (ACS) are revolting against the group's editor-in-chief -- with some demanding he be removed -- after an editorial appeared claiming “the science of anthropogenic climate change is becoming increasingly well established.”

The editorial claimed the "consensus" view was growing "increasingly difficult to challenge, despite the efforts of diehard climate-change deniers.” The editor now admits he is "startled" by the negative reaction from the group's scientific members. The American Chemical Society bills itself as the "world's largest scientific society."

The June 22, 2009 editorial in Chemical and Engineering News by editor in chief Rudy Baum, is facing widespread blowback and condemnation from American Chemical Society member scientists. Baum concluded his editorial by stating that “deniers” are attempting to “derail meaningful efforts to respond to global climate change.”

Dozens of letters from ACS members were published on July 27, 2009 castigating Baum, with some scientists calling for his replacement as editor-in-chief.

The editorial was met with a swift, passionate and scientific rebuke from Baum's colleagues. Virtually all of the letters published on July 27 in castigated Baum's climate science views. Scientists rebuked Baum's use of the word “deniers” because of the terms “association with Holocaust deniers.” In addition, the scientists called Baum's editorial: “disgusting”; “a disgrace”; “filled with misinformation”; “unworthy of a scientific periodical” and “pap.”

One outraged ACS member wrote to Baum: "When all is said and done, and you and your kind are proven wrong (again), you will have moved on to be an unthinking urn for another rat pleading catastrophe. You will be removed. I promise."

Baum 'startled' by scientists reaction

Baum wrote on July 27, that he was "startled" and "surprised" by the "contempt" and "vehemence" of the ACS scientists to his view of the global warming "consensus."

"Some of the letters I received are not fit to print. Many of the letters we have printed are, I think it is fair to say, outraged by my position on global warming," Baum wrote.

Selected Excerpts of Skeptical Scientists:

“I think it's time to find a new editor,” ACS member Thomas E. D'Ambra wrote.

Geochemist R. Everett Langford wrote: “I am appalled at the condescending attitude of Rudy Baum, Al Gore, President Barack Obama, et al., who essentially tell us that there is no need for further research—that the matter is solved.”

ACS scientist Dennis Malpass wrote: “Your editorial was a disgrace. It was filled with misinformation, half-truths, and ad hominem attacks on those who dare disagree with you. Shameful!”

ACS member scientist Dr. Howard Hayden, a Physics Professor Emeritus from the University of Connecticut: “Baum's remarks are particularly disquieting because of his hostility toward skepticism, which is part of every scientist's soul. Let's cut to the chase with some questions for Baum: Which of the 20-odd major climate models has settled the science, such that all of the rest are now discarded? [...] Do you refer to 'climate change' instead of 'global warming' because the claim of anthropogenic global warming has become increasingly contrary to fact?"

Edward H. Gleason wrote: “Baum's attempt to close out debate goes against all my scientific training, and to hear this from my ACS is certainly alarming to me...his use of 'climate-change deniers' to pillory scientists who do not believe climate change is a crisis is disingenuous and unscientific.”

Atmospheric Chemist Roger L. Tanner: "I have very little in common with the philosophy of the Heartland Institute and other 'free-market fanatics,' and I consider myself a progressive Democrat. Nevertheless, we scientists should know better than to propound scientific truth by consensus and to excoriate skeptics with purple prose."

William Tolley: "I take great offense that Baum would use Chemical and Engineering News, for which I pay dearly each year in membership dues, to purvey his personal views and so glibly ignore contrary information and scold those of us who honestly find these views to be a hoax."

William E. Keller wrote: “However bitter you (Baum) personally may feel about CCDs (climate change deniers), it is not your place as editor to accuse them—falsely—of nonscientific behavior by using insultingly inappropriate language. [...] The growing body of scientists, whom you abuse as sowing doubt, making up statistics, and claiming to be ignored by the media, are, in the main, highly competent professionals, experts in their fields, completely honorable, and highly versed in the scientific method—characteristics that apparently do not apply to you.”

ACS member Wallace Embry: “I would like to see the American Chemical Society Board 'cap' Baum's political pen and 'trade' him to either the New York Times or Washington Post." [To read the more reactions from scientists to Baum's editorial go here and see below.]

Physicists Dr. Lubos Motl, who publishes the Reference Frame website, weighed in on the controversy as well, calling Baum's editorial an "alarmist screed."

“Now, the chemists are thinking about replacing this editor who has hijacked the ACS bulletin to promote his idiosyncratic political views," Motl wrote on July 27, 2009.

Baum cites discredited Obama Administration Climate Report

To “prove” his assertion that the science was “becoming increasingly well established,” Baum cited the Obama Administration's U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) study as evidence that the science was settled. [Climate Depot Editor's Note: Baum's grasp of the latest “science” is embarrassing. For Baum to cite the June 2009 Obama Administration report as “evidence” that science is growing stronger exposes him as having very poor research skills. See this comprehensive report on scientists rebuking that report. See: 'Scaremongering': Scientists Pan Obama Climate Report: 'This is not a work of science but an embarrassing episode for the authors and NOAA'...'Misrepresents the science' - July 8, 2009 )

Baum also touted the Congressional climate bill as “legislation with real teeth to control the emission of greenhouse gases.” [Climate Depot Editor's Note: This is truly laughable that an editor-in-chief at the American Chemical Society could say the climate bill has “real teeth.” This statement should be retracted in full for lack of evidence. The Congressional climate bill has outraged environmental groups for failing to impact global temperatures and failing to even reduce emissions! See: Climate Depot Editorial: Climate bill offers (costly) non-solutions to problems that don't even exist - No detectable climate impact: 'If we actually faced a man-made 'climate crisis', we would all be doomed' June 20, 2009 ]

The American Chemical Society's scientific revolt is the latest in a series of recent eruptions against the so-called “consensus” on man-made global warming.

On May 1 2009, the American Physical Society (APS) Council decided to review its current climate statement via a high-level subcommittee of respected senior scientists. The decision was prompted after a group of 54 prominent physicists petitioned the APS revise its global warming position. The 54 physicists wrote to APS governing board: “Measured or reconstructed temperature records indicate that 20th - 21st century changes are neither exceptional nor persistent, and the historical and geological records show many periods warmer than today.”

The petition signed by the prominent physicists, led by Princeton University's Dr. Will Happer, who has conducted 200 peer-reviewed scientific studies. The peer-reviewed journal Nature published a July 22, 2009 letter by the physicists persuading the APS to review its statement. In 2008, an American Physical Society editor conceded that a “considerable presence” of scientific skeptics exists.

In addition, in April 2009, the Polish National Academy of Science reportedly “published a document that expresses skepticism over the concept of man-made global warming.” An abundance of new peer-reviewed scientific studies continue to be published challenging the UN IPCC climate views.

And then below they have numerous Scientists and Researchers practising freedom of speech.

I am searching for some other important articles and I will publish them shortly when I find them.

I believe the whole issue is a political issue and nothing to do with Science. IPCC computer models have epically failed over the last few years and their predictions are as horrible as the predictions of chaos brought about by Y2K.
 

Phronesis

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And you might as well include the following:
The earth has been warming since 1900.
CO2 doubling may result in 1 - 1.5 degree celsius increase in global temperatures.
Other factors also play a role....like the sun, which have been more active than usual in the past century. Natural variability DOES play role and we can not accurately model it.
Is CO2 a very serious problem? I don't think so and definately not tax worthy.
 

Fieldy

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aah.. found another good one..
Richard Courtney
Energy and Environment Consultant

Richard S. Courtney is an independent consultant on matters concerning energy and the environment. He is a technical advisor to several UK MPs and mostly-UK MEPs. He has been called as an expert witness by the UK Parliament’s House of Commons Select Committee on Energy and also House of Lords Select Committee on the Environment. He is an expert peer reviewer for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and in November 1997 chaired the Plenary Session of the Climate Conference in Bonn. In June 2000 he was one of 15 scientists invited from around the world to give a briefing on climate change at the US Congress in Washington DC, and he then chaired one of the three briefing sessions. His achievements have been recognized by The UK’s Royal Society for Arts and Commerce, PZZK (the management association of Poland’s mining industry), and The British Association for the Advancement of Science. Having been the contributing technical editor of CoalTrans International, he is now on the editorial board of Energy & Environment. He is a founding member of the European Science and Environment Forum (ESEF).

He recently said this:

Richard S Courtney says:
April 17, 2009 at 3:10 am

Of course the next IPCC report has to be delayed.

The IPCC is the InterGOVERNMENTal Panel on Climate Change. Governments are political bodies. And the IPCC’s function is – and always has been – to provide an appearance of scientific justification for political policies.

That appearance becomes progressively more difficult to sustain with each year the globe fails to warm.

The IPCC Reports were originally scheduled for publication at 5-year intervals. But a 5-year period after the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) would have to report cessation of global warming in the period since the AR4. There has been no mathematically significant rise in mean global temperature (MGT) since 1995. MGT has not again achieved the peak it had in the El Nino year of 1998 and has been static or gradually falling since 2001. Furthermore, the ‘fingerprint’ of enhanced greenhouse effect is greatest warming at altitude in the tropics, but independent measurements from weather balloons and from satellites both show slight cooling at altitude in the tropics. Meanwhile, atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and anthropogenic emissions have continued to rise.

The warming period from ~1970 to ~2000 was sandwiched between the cooling periods of ~1940 to ~1970 and ~2000 to the present. The changes between these warming and cooling periods coincide with phase reversals of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and, therefore, it seems that the present lack of warming is likely to continue for the next two decades.

The governments served by the IPCC can only hope that global warming resumes prior to the next IPCC report. Failing that, the next IPCC Report needs to be delayed until the political objectives – such as those the governments hope to achieve at Copenhagen in December – are obtained.

Richard

on the following article

Has the IPCC rendered itself irrelevant?
April 15, 2009
 

BCO

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And you might as well include the following:
The earth has been warming since 1900.
CO2 doubling may result in 1 - 1.5 degree celsius increase in global temperatures.
Other factors also play a role....like the sun, which have been more active than usual in the past century. Natural variability DOES play role and we can not accurately model it.
Is CO2 a very serious problem? I don't think so and definately not tax worthy.

Ah ok, clearly I got your standpoint very wrong then.
 

BandwidthAddict

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Another leg in this house of cards falls:

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/08/...se-demise-of-ice-ages-solar-and-earth-wobble/

The researchers used an analysis of 6,000 dates and locations of ice sheets to define, with a high level of accuracy, when they started to melt. In doing this, they confirmed a theory that was first developed more than 50 years ago that pointed to small but definable changes in Earth’s rotation as the trigger for ice ages.

“We can calculate changes in the Earth’s axis and rotation that go back 50 million years,” Clark said. “These are caused primarily by the gravitational influences of the larger planets, such as Jupiter and Saturn, which pull and tug on the Earth in slightly different ways over periods of thousands of years.”

That, in turn, can change the Earth’s axis – the way it tilts towards the sun – about two degrees over long periods of time, which changes the way sunlight strikes the planet. And those small shifts in solar radiation were all it took to cause multiple ice ages during about the past 2.5 million years on Earth, which reach their extremes every 100,000 years or so

Thanks to the work of tireless good men, slowly but surely, the lunacy of anthropomogiccy (ie capitalists, not the greenies mind you - they are carbon neutral - as only brain dead people can be) global warming is going down. I can't wait for the usual climate nazis heads to explode on this one :)
 

BCO

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Phronesis: some feedback on the McLean, Freitas, and Carter paper.

I have been reading and rereading this post and the comments, but still find the whole thing strangely puzzling. It seems to me that any good first year calculus student should be able to quickly find the fatal flaw in the methodology as a way of explaining temperature change (as opposed to temperature variability, since it discards any secular component). So I thought they were being really clever by making a valid correlation of SOI with temperature variability, then subtly changing the language to temperature variation. Many people, including journalists, would conflate temperature variation and temperature change, with no further effort required on the part of the authors. It looked like an example of: “If you can’t convince them with facts, then dazzle them with footwork.”

But then they claim in the press release that it actually explains temperature change, and they do so with no apparent embarrassment. Unless I am really missing something it seems incomprehensible that anyone in the scientific community would take this paper seriously.

http://initforthegold.blogspot.com/2009/07/surprising-conclusions-from.html

Also:

http://tamino.wordpress.com/2009/07/24/old-news/
 

Phronesis

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Perhaps wait for the peer-reviewed reply ;)? It does happen you know, that is how the scientific process works. But you knew that didn't you...
 

BCO

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Perhaps wait for the peer-reviewed reply ;)? It does happen you know, that is how the scientific process works. But you knew that didn't you...

Yep. That's why I said "feedback" and not "rebuttals" :p
 
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