Global Warming - running out of time to prevent ECONOMIC disaster

Aeron

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What's the point of arguing against the masses? It's like fighting nature, wrestling with a bear, swimming against a tsunami. You've got a hoard of people who believe whatever they want to believe and who will call anyone in opposition of their theory "deniers" or "fringers" or, the classic, "conspiracy freaks".

The largest research projects are funded by funds that can be traced to chemical and energy corporations who have very little interest in telling the truth or some such chivalrous bull****.
 

Phronesis

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You seem quite cynical today?
Who do you think are those that are going to want to do the chivalrous bull****ty thing and tell the truth?
Those who believe in truth or those who think consciousness is just material particles and fields interacting between inputs, internal states, and outputs without any intrinsic meaning and truth is just local and contingent with each one having the ability to make up their own truth and point of view?
 

Phronesis

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Rainman!!! Been doing the wu wei thing lately? Now you think you are doing something by not actually doing anything... Awesome man, hope it helps with the daddy-issues :p.
 

wrathex

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"What's the point of arguing against the masses?"

Aaron, never give up on the ordinary people, not everyone has the intellectual
curiosity or ability to process the amount of information and knowledge that informs, educates and eventually enlightens.

Seekers of truth and answers do not limit themselves by having rules or mindsets that exclude infinite possibilities.

Be patient, and when information or data is thrown at you, always have a look and make your own summation.

Ignore nothing, observe everything, read widely, talk, debate, argue and door upon door of understanding,
insight and knowledge will open, revealing the full wrath of the ultimate truth.

The more you know - the less you know. :eek:
 

wrathex

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In a case of conflicting science reports, your best option is to gather more intel.

You do this by skipping US/UK science reports first, you then start looking at what German, French, Russian, Japanese and other scientists have to say about the issue.

English speaker/readers should not fall into the trap of only reading english media, this is how indoctrination and disinformation becomes easy to employ.

Most science articles from foreign language countries are translated into english or at least a summary is made in english.
 

Phronesis

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Small fluctuations in solar activity, large influence on the climate

Sun spot frequency has an unexpectedly strong influence on cloud formation and precipitation

Our sun does not radiate evenly. The best known example of radiation fluctuations is the famous 11-year cycle of sun spots. Nobody denies its influence on the natural climate variability, but climate models have, to-date, not been able to satisfactorily reconstruct its impact on climate activity.

Researchers from the USA and from Germany have now, for the first time, successfully simulated, in detail, the complex interaction between solar radiation, atmosphere, and the ocean. As the scientific journal Science reports in its latest issue, Gerald Meehl of the US-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and his team have been able to calculate how the extremely small variations in radiation brings about a comparatively significant change in the System "Atmosphere-Ocean".

Katja Matthes of the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, and co-author of the study, states: „Taking into consideration the complete radiation spectrum of the sun, the radiation intensity within one sun spot cycle varies by just 0.1 per cent. Complex interplay mechanisms in the stratosphere and the troposphere, however, create measurable changes in the water temperature of the Pacific and in precipitation".

Top Down - Bottom up

In order for such reinforcement to take place many small wheels have to interdigitate. The initial process runs from the top downwards: increased solar radiation leads to more ozone and higher temperatures in the stratosphere. "The ultraviolet radiation share varies much more strongly than the other shares in the spectrum, i.e. by five to eight per cent, and that forms more ozone" explains Katja Matthes. As a result, especially the tropical stratosphere becomes warmer, which in turn leads to changed atmospheric circulation. Thus, the interrelated typical precipitation patterns in the tropics are also displaced.

The second process takes place in the opposite way: the higher solar activity leads to more evaporation in the cloud free areas. With the trade winds the increased amounts of moisture are transported to the equator, where they lead to stronger precipitation, lower water temperatures in the East Pacific and reduced cloud formation, which in turn allows for increased evaporation. Katja Matthes: "It is this positive back coupling that strengthens the process". With this it is possible to explain the respective measurements and observations on the Earth's surface.

Professor Reinhard Huettl, Chairman of the Scientific Executive Board of the GFZ (Helmholtz Association of German Research Centres) adds: "The study is important for comprehending the natural climatic variability, which - on different time scales - is significantly influenced by the sun. In order to better understand the anthropogenically induced climate change and to make more reliable future climate scenarios, it is very important to understand the underlying natural climatic variability. This investigation shows again that we still have substantial research needs to understand the climate system". Together with the Alfred Wegener-Institute for Polar and Marine Research and the Senckenberg Research Institute and Natural History Museum the GFZ is, therefore, organising a conference "Climate in the System Earth" scheduled for 2./3. November 2009 in Berlin.
 

battletoad

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Watch this pretty amazing doccie on cape town's CTV(somewhat anti-american but interesting nonetheless). After america applied embargoes and sanctions on cuba, the cuban govt had to respond with methods to ensure their people's survival. One of the major worries were oil. Stats they produced for oil consumption of the average american in per year terms:

Cars - 9 barrels
food - 10 barrels
energy - 7 barrels

Interestingly enough in an industrialised world food uses more oil than cars!
Anyway, the cubans came up with pretty novel solutions for their struggle such as:

Using bicycles at first, followed by free transportation for workers within city limits.

After the sugar harvesting was done, using the resultant sugar cane pulp for electricity generation. 30% of the electricity in cuba is produce by this means.

Nifty farming techniques and going back to oxen for tilting the fields. All food produced is organically grown and >80% of their pesticides are organic. At first their govt provided food rations and subsidies, but afterwards encouraged small scale farmers (among the highest paid professions in the country), thereby opening up job opportunities and larger food produce. Can't remember the date, but the govt then stopped food rations.

Their tertiary institutions diversified their locations, taking the classrooms to the masses. Recent statistics indicate that 10% are varsity graduates!!!. Altho they constitute only 2% of the latin american population, they have 11% of the scientists in latin america. Also, they are sitting on a gold mine of doctors, some practising their trade even in south africa.

Other methods are wide implementations of solar panels, beneficial social reconstruction of havana and educating the masses on energy efficiency.

Hence, the average cuban uses 7 barrels of oil a year compared to the 57 barrels for the average american.

These guys are a resourceful lot, just unfortunate our cousins north of the border can't implement these methods.

Anycase, the cubans are an example of what can happen if we make that mental switch in our minds to become more energy efficient. While our scientists are working on new ways to produce power let us all start by doing something as simple as putting off an unused lightbulb and not think,"I paid for it so i'll do whatever i want to do with it".
 
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BCO

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Watch this pretty amazing doccie on cape town's CTV(somewhat anti-american but interesting nonetheless). After america applied embargoes and sanctions on cuba, the cuban govt had to respond with methods to ensure their people's survival. One of the major worries were oil. Stats they produced for oil consumption of the average american in per year terms:

Cars - 9 barrels
food - 10 barrels
energy - 7 barrels

Interestingly enough in an industrialised world food uses more oil than cars!
Anyway, the cubans came up with pretty novel solutions for their struggle such as:

Using bicycles at first, followed by free transportation for workers within city limits.

After the sugar harvesting was done, using the resultant sugar cane pulp for electricity generation. 30% of the electricity in cuba is produce by this means.

Nifty farming techniques and going back to oxen for tilting the fields. All food produced is organically grown and >80% of their pesticides are organic. At first their govt provided food rations and subsidies, but afterwards encouraged small scale farmers (among the highest paid professions in the country), thereby opening up job opportunities and larger food produce. Can't remember the date, but the govt then stopped food rations.

Their tertiary institutions diversified their locations, taking the classrooms to the masses. Recent statistics indicate that 10% are varsity graduates!!!. Altho they constitute only 2% of the latin american population, they have 11% of the scientists in latin america. Also, they are sitting on a gold mine of doctors, some practising their trade even in south africa.

Other methods are wide implementations of solar panels, beneficial social reconstruction of havana and educating the masses on energy efficiency.

Hence, the average cuban uses 7 barrels of oil a year compared to the 57 barrels for the average american.

These guys are a resourceful lot, just unfortunate our cousins north of the border can't implement these methods.

Anycase, the cubans are an example of what can happen if we make that mental switch in our minds to become more energy efficient. While our scientists are working on new ways to produce power let us all start by doing something as simple as putting off an unused lightbulb and not think,"I paid for it so i'll do whatever i want to do with it".

Very interesting. Great post.

It highlights the fact that there are other reasons to use less oil/energy besides just climate change.
 

Phronesis

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Guess we are experiencing "Medieval warm period" type temperatures.... Those naughty medieval men with their naughty CO2 releasing machines...

New Temperature Reconstruction from Indo-Pacific Warm Pool

A new 2,000-year-long reconstruction of sea surface temperatures (SST) from the Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) suggests that temperatures in the region may have been as warm during the Medieval Warm Period as they are today.

The IPWP is the largest body of warm water in the world, and, as a result, it is the largest source of heat and moisture to the global atmosphere, and an important component of the planet’s climate. Climate models suggest that global mean temperatures are particularly sensitive to sea surface temperatures in the IPWP. Understanding the past history of the region is of great importance for placing current warming trends in a global context.

The study is published in the journal Nature.

Figure2b_550_92918.jpg

Sea surface temperature reconstructions from the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool. Different colored symbols indicate data from different cores used in the reconstruction. A northern hemisphere temperature reconstruction from Mann et al. (2008) is shown in the black curve. The previously published data is from Newton et al. (2006). Colored lines are the average of the data points. Triangles at the bottom of the figure show where age control exists. The horizontal black line labeled 1997-2007 Mean Annual SST shows the value of the annual average sea surface temperature for the same time period. The Little Ice Age, which occurred around A.D. 1700, was a cool period, but its magnitude was only about 0.5 to 1˚C cooler than modern winter temperatures. Water temperature during the late Medieval Warm Period, between about A.D. 1000 to 1250, was within error of modern annual sea surface temperatures. (Oppo, Rosenthal, Linsley; 2009)
 

Phronesis

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Scientists discover surprise in Earth's upper atmosphere

UCLA atmospheric scientists have discovered a previously unknown basic mode of energy transfer from the solar wind to the Earth's magnetosphere. The research, federally funded by the National Science Foundation, could improve the safety and reliability of spacecraft that operate in the upper atmosphere.

"It's like something else is heating the atmosphere besides the sun. This discovery is like finding it got hotter when the sun went down," said Larry Lyons, UCLA professor of atmospheric and oceanic sciences and a co-author of the research, which is in press in two companion papers in the Journal of Geophysical Research....
 

Phronesis

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World's climate could cool first, warm later
Forecasts of climate change are about to go seriously out of kilter. One of the world's top climate modellers said Thursday we could be about to enter one or even two decades during which temperatures cool.

"People will say this is global warming disappearing," he told more than 1500 of the world's top climate scientists gathering in Geneva at the UN's World Climate Conference.

"I am not one of the sceptics," insisted Mojib Latif of the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences at Kiel University, Germany. "However, we have to ask the nasty questions ourselves or other people will do it."

Few climate scientists go as far as Latif, an author for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. But more and more agree that the short-term prognosis for climate change is much less certain than once thought....



Thermageddon? Postponed!

Last week a UK tribunal ruled that belief in manmade global warming had the same status as a religious conviction, such as transubstantiation. True believers in the hypothesis will need mountains of faith in the years ahead.

The New Scientist has given weight to the prediction that the planet is in for a cool 20 years - defying the computer models and contemporary climate theory. It's "bad timing", admits the magazine's environmental correspondent, Fred Pearce...

Company fights climate change ruling by employment tribunal
A controversial tribunal decision that some company practices can discriminate against employees with strongly held views on climate change will be challenged in the courts.

Senior executive Tim Nicholson claimed he was unfairly dismissed by a property investment company because his views on the environment conflicted with other managers' "contempt for the need to cut carbon emissions".

In the first case of its kind, an employment tribunal decided that Nicholson, 41, had views amounting to a "philosophical belief in climate change", allowing him the same legal protection against discrimination as religious beliefs.

Nicholson, the former head of sustainability at Newcastle-based Grainger plc, says he was dismissed after disagreeing with practices including an instance where an IT worker was flown from London to Ireland to collect his BlackBerry, and another where Nicholson's attempts to obtain data to develop a carbon management strategy were blocked.

Despite having written policies on the environment, Grainger executives attended meetings in "some of the most highly polluting cars on the road", Nicholson claimed.

"[My belief] affects how I live my life including my choice of home, how I travel, what I buy, what I eat and drink, what I do with my waste, and my hopes and fears," he said. "For example, I no longer travel by plane, I have eco-renovated my home, I compost my food waste and encourage others to reduce their carbon emissions."...

Want a religion? Believe in AGW...
 

Phronesis

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Solar Cycle Driven by More than Sunspots; Sun Also Bombards Earth with High-Speed Streams of Wind

BOULDER—Challenging conventional wisdom, new research finds that the number of sunspots provides an incomplete measure of changes in the Sun's impact on Earth over the course of the 11-year solar cycle. The study, led by scientists at the High Altitude Observatory of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the University of Michigan, finds that Earth was bombarded last year with high levels of solar energy at a time when the Sun was in an unusually quiet phase and sunspots had virtually disappeared.

"The Sun continues to surprise us," says NCAR scientist Sarah Gibson, the lead author. "The solar wind can hit Earth like a fire hose even when there are virtually no sunspots."

The study, also written by scientists at NOAA and NASA, is being published today in the Journal of Geophysical Research - Space Physics. It was funded by NASA and by the National Science Foundation, NCAR's sponsor.

Scientists for centuries have used sunspots, which are areas of concentrated magnetic fields that appear as dark patches on the solar surface, to determine the approximately 11-year solar cycle. At solar maximum, the number of sunspots peaks. During this time, intense solar flares occur daily and geomagnetic storms frequently buffet Earth, knocking out satellites and disrupting communications networks.

picture.php

When the solar cycle was at a minimum level in 1996, the Sun sprayed Earth with relatively few, weak high-speed streams containing turbulent magnetic fields (left). In contrast, the Sun bombarded Earth with stronger and longer-lasting streams last year (right) even though the solar cycle was again at a minimum level. The streams affected Earth's outer radiation belt, posing a threat to earth-orbiting satellites, and triggered space weather disturbances, lighting up auroras in the sky at higher latitudes. [ENLARGE] (Illustration by Janet Kozyra with images from NASA, courtesy Journal of Geophysical Research - Space Physics.)


Gibson and her colleagues focused instead on another process by which the Sun discharges energy. The team analyzed high-speed streams within the solar wind that carry turbulent magnetic fields out into the solar system.

When those streams blow by Earth, they intensify the energy of the planet's outer radiation belt. This can create serious hazards for weather, navigation, and communications satellites that travel at high altitudes within the outer radiation belts, while also threatening astronauts in the International Space Station. Auroral storms light up the night sky repeatedly at high latitudes as the streams move past, driving mega-ampere electrical currents about 75 miles above Earth's surface. All that energy heats and expands the upper atmosphere. This expansion pushes denser air higher, slowing down satellites and causing them to drop to lower altitudes.

Scientists previously thought that the streams largely disappeared as the solar cycle approached minimum. But when the study team compared measurements within the current solar minimum interval, taken in 2008, with measurements of the last solar minimum in 1996, they found that Earth in 2008 was continuing to resonate with the effects of the streams. Although the current solar minimum has fewer sunspots than any minimum in 75 years, the Sun's effect on Earth's outer radiation belt, as measured by electron fluxes, was more than three times greater last year than in 1996.

Gibson said that observations this year show that the winds have finally slowed, almost two years after sunspots reached the levels of last cycle's minimum.

The authors note that more research is needed to understand the impacts of these high-speed streams on the planet. The study raises questions about how the streams might have affected Earth in the past when the Sun went through extended periods of low sunspot activity, such as a period known as the Maunder minimum that lasted from about 1645 to 1715.

"The fact that Earth can continue to ring with solar energy has implications for satellites and sensitive technological systems," Gibson says. "This will keep scientists busy bringing all the pieces together."


Buffeting Earth with streams of energy

For the new study, the scientists analyzed information gathered from an array of space- and ground-based instruments during two international scientific projects: the Whole Sun Month in the late summer of 1996 and the Whole Heliosphere Interval in the early spring of 2008. The solar cycle was at a minimal stage during both the study periods, with few sunspots in 1996 and even fewer in 2008.

The team found that strong, long, and recurring high-speed streams of charged particles buffeted Earth in 2008. In contrast, Earth encountered weaker and more sporadic streams in 1996. As a result, the planet was more affected by the Sun in 2008 than in 1996, as measured by such variables as the strength of electron fluxes in the outer radiation belt, the velocity of the solar wind in the vicinity of Earth, and the periodic behavior of auroras (the Northern and Southern Lights) as they responded to repeated high-speed streams.

The prevalence of high-speed streams during this solar minimum appears to be related to the current structure of the Sun. As sunspots became less common over the last few years, large coronal holes lingered in the surface of the Sun near its equator. The high-speed streams that blow out of those holes engulfed Earth during 55 percent of the study period in 2008, compared to 31 percent of the study period in 1996. A single stream of charged particles can last for as long as 7 to 10 days. At their peak, the accumulated impact of the streams during one year can inject as much energy into Earth's environment as massive eruptions from the Sun's surface can during a year at the peak of a solar cycle, says co-author Janet Kozyra of the University of Michigan.

The streams strike Earth periodically, spraying out in full force like water from a fire hose as the Sun revolves. When the magnetic fields in the solar winds point in a direction opposite to the magnetic lines in Earth's magnetosphere, they have their strongest effect. The strength and speed of the magnetic fields in the high-speed streams can also affect Earth's response.

The authors speculate that the high number of low-latitude coronal holes during this solar minimum may be related to a weakness in the Sun's overall magnetic field. The Sun in 2008 had smaller polar coronal holes than in 1996, but high-speed streams that escape from the Sun's poles do not travel in the direction of Earth.

"The Sun-Earth interaction is complex, and we haven't yet discovered all the consequences for the Earth's environment of the unusual solar winds this cycle," Kozyra says. "The intensity of magnetic activity at Earth in this extremely quiet solar minimum surprised us all. The new observations from last year are changing our understanding of how solar quiet intervals affect the Earth and how and why this might change from cycle to cycle."
 

Phronesis

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While CERN is testing the impact of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) on cloud formation and climate change, nature seems to help the experiment a little:

Cosmic Rays Hit Space Age High

389985main_ray_surge_graph_226.jpg

Energetic iron nuclei counted by the Cosmic Ray Isotope Spectrometer on NASA's Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft reveal that cosmic ray levels have jumped 19% above the previous Space Age high. Credit: Richard Mewaldt/Caltech

389988main_ray_surge_heliosphere09_226.jpg

An artist's concept of the heliosphere, a magnetic bubble that partially protects the solar system from cosmic rays. Credit: Richard Mewaldt/Caltech

NASA's ACE (Advanced Composition Explorer) spacecraft, galactic cosmic rays have just hit a Space Age high.

"In 2009, cosmic ray intensities have increased 19% beyond anything we've seen in the past 50 years," says Richard Mewaldt of Caltech. "The increase is significant, and it could mean we need to re-think how much radiation shielding astronauts take with them on deep-space missions."

The cause of the surge is solar minimum, a deep lull in solar activity that began around 2007 and continues today. Researchers have long known that cosmic rays go up when solar activity goes down. Right now solar activity is as weak as it has been in modern times, setting the stage for what Mewaldt calls "a perfect storm of cosmic rays."

"We're experiencing the deepest solar minimum in nearly a century," says Dean Pesnell of the Goddard Space Flight Center, "so it is no surprise that cosmic rays are at record levels for the Space Age."

Galactic cosmic rays come from outside the solar system. They are subatomic particles--mainly protons but also some heavy nuclei--accelerated to almost light speed by distant supernova explosions. Cosmic rays cause "air showers" of secondary particles when they hit Earth's atmosphere; they pose a health hazard to astronauts; and a single cosmic ray can disable a satellite if it hits an unlucky integrated circuit.

The sun's magnetic field is our first line of defense against these highly-charged, energetic particles. The entire solar system from Mercury to Pluto and beyond is surrounded by a bubble of solar magnetism called "the heliosphere." It springs from the sun's inner magnetic dynamo and is inflated to gargantuan proportions by the solar wind. When a cosmic ray tries to enter the solar system, it must fight through the heliosphere's outer layers; and if it makes it inside, there is a thicket of magnetic fields waiting to scatter and deflect the intruder.

"At times of low solar activity, this natural shielding is weakened, and more cosmic rays are able to reach the inner solar system," explains Pesnell.

Mewaldt lists three aspects of the current solar minimum that are combining to create the perfect storm:

1) The sun's magnetic field is weak. "There has been a sharp decline in the sun's interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) down to only 4 nanoTesla (nT) from typical values of 6 to 8 nT," he says. "This record-low IMF undoubtedly contributes to the record-high cosmic ray fluxes."

2) The solar wind is flagging. "Measurements by the Ulysses spacecraft show that solar wind pressure is at a 50-year low," he continues, "so the magnetic bubble that protects the solar system is not being inflated as much as usual." A smaller bubble gives cosmic rays a shorter-shot into the solar system. Once a cosmic ray enters the solar system, it must "swim upstream" against the solar wind. Solar wind speeds have dropped to very low levels in 2008 and 2009, making it easier than usual for a cosmic ray to proceed.

3) The current sheet is flattening. Imagine the sun wearing a ballerina's skirt as wide as the entire solar system with an electrical current flowing along the wavy folds. That is the "heliospheric current sheet," a vast transition zone where the polarity of the sun's magnetic field changes from plus (north) to minus (south). The current sheet is important because cosmic rays tend to be guided by its folds. Lately, the current sheet has been flattening itself out, allowing cosmic rays more direct access to the inner solar system

"If the flattening continues as it has in previous solar minima, we could see cosmic ray fluxes jump all the way to 30% above previous Space Age highs," predicts Mewaldt.

Earth is in no great peril from the extra cosmic rays. The planet's atmosphere and magnetic field combine to form a formidable shield against space radiation, protecting humans on the surface. Indeed, we've weathered storms much worse than this. Hundreds of years ago, cosmic ray fluxes were at least 200% higher than they are now. Researchers know this because when cosmic rays hit the atmosphere, they produce an isotope of beryllium, 10Be, which is preserved in polar ice. By examining ice cores, it is possible to estimate cosmic ray fluxes more than a thousand years into the past. Even with the recent surge, cosmic rays today are much weaker than they have been at times in the past millennium.

"The space era has so far experienced a time of relatively low cosmic ray activity," says Mewaldt. "We may now be returning to levels typical of past centuries."

NASA spacecraft will continue to monitor the situation as solar minimum unfolds. Stay tuned for updates.


Dr. Tony Phillips
Heliophysics News Team

How do GCRs possibly affect climate?
Possible mechanism tested by CERN:
kirkby_slide_page29-mechanism.png

The correlation between solar activity, GCRs and recent climate change.

kirkby_slide_siberianclimate.jpg

Correlation recently reported between solar/GCR variability and temperature in Siberia from glacial ice core, 30 yr lag (ie. ocean currents may be part of response)

GCRs are up, the sun is quiet, so time will tell what kind of an effect this will have on climate change.
 
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