Cosmik Debris

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Feb 25, 2021
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You do you and I'll do me. Makes no difference with you in any case.

Scurrying back under the rock of insufficient knowledge and qualifications again I see?

Answer the question - How do different viruses act? You made the claim, you provide the evidence.
 

Cosmik Debris

Honorary Master
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Feb 25, 2021
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Your trolling is pointless, everyone knows your distraction ways by now.

Trolling? I asked him for facts he can't provide? Maybe you can answer the question I asked regarding his statement:

How do different viruses act? You made the claim, you provide the evidence.

Seeing you want to help someone out you think needs help here, please do so.
 

Brian_G

Executive Member
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Feb 7, 2020
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6,825
I'll just put you on ignore for now.
--------------------------

Maybe the easiest way to sum this all up is this way - there's a lot of smoke, endlessly, which says to a growing number of people that there must be a massive fire.

And no, I'm not an expert on smoke, nor its raging source. :rolleyes: Don't need to be.
 

Daveogg

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The question is why though? What he says makes a lot of sense as there's always a warning when the numbers don't reflect the situation. Then they start with cautionary announcements and threats and soon we have a lockdown after which the numbers increase and then go down again when the lockdown ends.

Can't help but wonder then that it's either the numbers being manipulated, or the lockdowns causing the infections or another factor at play here as virusses don't behave like this naturally.
Just expand a bit here, when in your opinion did the numbers not reflect the situation?
Lockdowns causing infections? Geoff posted an interesting graph above, from memory I think I saw an estimation of the R0 for delta of 5? Whereas the data in Geoff's graph seems to indicate we never got above 1.5. So one has to ask what would have been the situation without lockdown?

But again I would love to know the reason why a wave "ends" seems very counter intuitive, but I am pretty sure the answer will be viral / host factors rather than some higher up manipulation.
 

Brian_G

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..but I am pretty sure the answer will be viral / host factors rather than some higher up manipulation.
Waves are natural oscillations. Reports about them and official events surrounding their behaviour may be manipulated, I mean in a country like this with the regular hypocrisy that exists who actually believes we have ever contained the highly contagious virus?

There's a reason why most Safricans consider more and trust less. We're already used to political abuse.
 

Daveogg

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Waves are natural oscillations. Reports about them and official events surrounding their behaviour may be manipulated, I mean in a country like this with the regular hypocrisy that exists who actually believes we have ever contained the highly contagious virus?

There's a reason why most Safricans consider more and trust less. We're already used to political abuse.
Well my experience of the "situation" pretty closely follows the trend of the numbers as published. For example I don't think I have had a positive patient in the last month, whereas July was an hourly occurrence.
 

NoLuck Chuck

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Just expand a bit here, when in your opinion did the numbers not reflect the situation?
Lockdowns causing infections? Geoff posted an interesting graph above, from memory I think I saw an estimation of the R0 for delta of 5? Whereas the data in Geoff's graph seems to indicate we never got above 1.5. So one has to ask what would have been the situation without lockdown?

But again I would love to know the reason why a wave "ends" seems very counter intuitive, but I am pretty sure the answer will be viral / host factors rather than some higher up manipulation.
Think he referred to my post.
I'm seeing lots of reports on the imminent 4th wave, but the numbers suggest something else.
 

Geoff.D

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Just expand a bit here, when in your opinion did the numbers not reflect the situation?
Lockdowns causing infections? Geoff posted an interesting graph above, from memory I think I saw an estimation of the R0 for delta of 5? Whereas the data in Geoff's graph seems to indicate we never got above 1.5. So one has to ask what would have been the situation without lockdown?

But again I would love to know the reason why a wave "ends" seems very counter intuitive, but I am pretty sure the answer will be viral / host factors rather than some higher up manipulation.
Is have asked before if there is any one who knows of any work being done or done in the past on other virus infections which show what the expected trajectory of the Rt value would be over time. It seem to me by now that someone would have an idea of how viruses typically evolve.
The statistical theory supporting the R value of a virus infection is pretty robust.
Hence has any virus in the past ever shown an overall pattern that does not gradually diminish? And is it possible then to suggest how many waves it takes before a virus becomes endemic?
 
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Geoff.D

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Ja predictions of the 4th wave? I take those with as much conviction as people who predict the lotto numbers.
Yup. The predictions of johnny come lately politicians are meaningless. But when a mathematician and a scientist suggest the possibility, it is difficult to ignore.
 

NoLuck Chuck

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Yup. The predictions of johnny come lately politicians are meaningless. But when a mathematician and a scientist suggest the possibility, it is difficult to ignore.
Not really meaningless...they do have the power to steer this in any direction they see fit.
 

Brian_G

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But when a mathematician and a scientist suggest the possibility, it is difficult to ignore.
If it's pure. Not if it's influenced by politicians & co. calling the shots... and if we know enough about when and with who that occurs. Widely growing corporate greed and this country's leanings demand that care.
 

NoLuck Chuck

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And is it possible then to suggest how many waves it takes before a virus becomes endemic?
Many (highly-vaccinated) European countries, I think, have already accepted this.
You can see it in the number of supporters at their sporting events, even though their daily infection rate has been far higher than South Africa's.
 
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