Brian_G

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For example I don't think I have had a positive patient in the last month, whereas July was an hourly occurrence.
How many of those positive patients crowding your hospital ended up really sick? It's long been suspected, with good reason, that the testing is manipulated as most regulars here know.
 
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Daveogg

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Is have asked before if there is any one who knows of any work being done or done in the past on other virus infections which show what the expected trajectory of the Rt value would be over time. It seem to me by now that someone would have an idea of how viruses typically evolve.
The statistical theory supporting the R value of a virus infection is pretty robust.
Hence has any virus in the past ever shown an overall pattern that does not gradually diminish? And is it possible then to suggest how many waves it takes before a virus becomes endemic?
I think the problem is that there are multiple variables, So for example measles has a really high R0, something like 15-18, if I remember correctly, but immunity from infection or vaccination is very durable, so your model does not need to deal with people previously infected becoming vulnerable again. As we all know from our various "engagements" on these forums, predicting immunity from infection or vaccination is far from resolved, therefore our vulnerable N keeps changing? Before even considering a "evolutionary baby" in viral terms.
 

Daveogg

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How many of those positive patients crowding your hospital ended up really sick? It's long been suspected, with good reason, that the testing is manipulated as most regulars here know.
Enough that at the peak of the second wave approx 80% of our generally available beds (ie not maternity or paeds) had a covid patient resident. Presently exactly 1 covid +ve patient admitted.
Just give me your ideas on what is being manipulated, and the process. For example are the labs being ordered to "produce" positive results, or is someone adding too or subtracting numbers where they get collated from the labs? Some other way?
 

Brian_G

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Enough that at the peak of the second wave approx 80% of our generally available beds (ie not maternity or paeds) had a covid patient resident. Presently exactly 1 covid +ve patient admitted.
Is that not normal for a peak of any bad virus... I would have thought it more like 300% given the fuss our politicians are making.

Just give me your ideas on what is being manipulated, and the process. For example are the labs being ordered to "produce" positive results, or is someone adding too or subtracting numbers where they get collated from the labs? Some other way?
Talking about the testing cycles of the mainly used PCR test, still under debate. There were other issues as well, too many months ago though things like regular false reporting of deaths, some under orders, is clearly remembered.

Anyway, I know you're suffering from the stresses of dealing with this first hand so do respect that to you it's far worse than what we generally come across.
 

wingnut771

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Enough that at the peak of the second wave approx 80% of our generally available beds (ie not maternity or paeds) had a covid patient resident. Presently exactly 1 covid +ve patient admitted.
Just give me your ideas on what is being manipulated, and the process. For example are the labs being ordered to "produce" positive results, or is someone adding too or subtracting numbers where they get collated from the labs? Some other way?
I want to know where the virus is right now. If no one is sick then there is no virus right?
 

Brian_G

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I want to know where the virus is right now. If no one is sick then there is no virus right?
That reminds me - why are we still told that only 70 or 80% of people have had this virus in this wild country, given how highly contagious it is and how little lockdowns and cloth masks do, and how long it's been at it. I don't believe we haven't all had it pass through our systems.
 

Swa

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Just expand a bit here, when in your opinion did the numbers not reflect the situation?
Lockdowns causing infections? Geoff posted an interesting graph above, from memory I think I saw an estimation of the R0 for delta of 5? Whereas the data in Geoff's graph seems to indicate we never got above 1.5. So one has to ask what would have been the situation without lockdown?

But again I would love to know the reason why a wave "ends" seems very counter intuitive, but I am pretty sure the answer will be viral / host factors rather than some higher up manipulation.
Think you misunderstood my post. You'd expect waves to follow a natural progression. More cases as new variants arise or demographics change. It would be interesting to see the Spanish flu in that regard but unfortunately there wasn't that level of reporting at the time.

With the virus having an incubation period on average of 7 days or less in the case of delta you'd expect cases to start dropping a week into lockdown and increase again after lockdown but it's the opposite. Then we have the "super spreaders" where we also see the opposite. The looting was predicted to result in a massive outbreak yet all we saw was a slight uptick in a few isolated areas but overall the pattern followed the lockdown measures inversely. This also reflects the situation in the townships with virtually no lockdowns yet we don't see streets layered with dead bodies.

This leaves only 3 main possibilities.
 

Daveogg

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Is that not normal for a peak of any bad virus... I would have thought it more like 300% given the fuss our politicians are making.


Talking about the testing cycles of the mainly used PCR test, still under debate. There were other issues as well, too many months ago though things like regular false reporting of deaths, some under orders, is clearly remembered.

Anyway, I know you're suffering from the stresses of dealing with this first hand so do respect that to you it's far worse than what we generally come across.
Brian to be honest, yes the medical fraternity had been working hard during the waves, but we are used to it and we signed up for this so no complaints from me.
A friend who owns two restaurants has had far more stress than me, with landlords knocking down her door. If a 4th wave comes along in December I'll work hard and maybe forego a few days off, but that pales into insignificance when compared to potentially loosing your income, house etc.
I do generally think the PCR tests are pretty good, when compared to most medical tests. Certainly orders of magnitude better than say an ultrasound for diagnosis of appendicitis. But like all tools the operator is pretty important.
Sorry I am answering your questions in reverse order, no other infection has come close to filling beds like Covid during my medical career. One thing to consider is the length of stay of Covid admissions, generally a long time in hospital.
 

Geoff.D

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I want to know where the virus is right now. If no one is sick then there is no virus right?
No. The fact that no one is sick is already a generalisation as there are still people getting sick. The virus is still out there and will remain in the wild so to speak for a long time.
 

Geoff.D

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Brian to be honest, yes the medical fraternity had been working hard during the waves, but we are used to it and we signed up for this so no complaints from me.
A friend who owns two restaurants has had far more stress than me, with landlords knocking down her door. If a 4th wave comes along in December I'll work hard and maybe forego a few days off, but that pales into insignificance when compared to potentially loosing your income, house etc.
I do generally think the PCR tests are pretty good, when compared to most medical tests. Certainly orders of magnitude better than say an ultrasound for diagnosis of appendicitis. But like all tools the operator is pretty important.
Sorry I am answering your questions in reverse order, no other infection has come close to filling beds like Covid during my medical career. One thing to consider is the length of stay of Covid admissions, generally a long time in hospital.
Don't talk of diagnosing appendicitis, it is a very sensitive subject right now.
My grandson is having a problem, has been in and out of two private hospitals who have to put it politely, f@cked up his diagnosis twice now. The GP says it is appendicitis, has done blood work and the normal poke-the-oke in the guts test but the hospitals can't get their scans and sonar scans to even see the damn thing let alone diagnose it.
 
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RiaX

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Don't talk of diagnosing appendicitis, it is a very sensitive subject right now.
My grandson is having a problem, has been in and out of two private hospitals who have to put it politely, f@cked up his diagnosis twice now. The GP says it is appendicitis, has done blood work and the normal poke-the-oke in the guts test but the hospitals can't get their scans and sonar scans to even see the damn thing let alone diagnose it.

Shame man. Have they tried CT with contrast ? or maybe MRI ? I believe thats what the radios do if they cant find it on ultrasound. Just a thought I'm not a radio
 

NoLuck Chuck

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SA Covid situation since Mon 18/10:
7-day average (total)

New cases: 434 (3040)
Deaths: 44 (308)
Vax: 134390 (21321996)

Active cases has seen a nice drop, but a slight uptick since Friday 22nd.
 

Brian_G

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So roughly 80% full hospital(s) in the WC at peak, and much of that due to long term stays by those patients. And externally processed PCR tests still trusted in determining much of who is admitted it seems.
Certainly not the massive concern signaled by this grabbamint (although EC has no doubt really been worse).

Sounds like rotten politics to me.
 

NoLuck Chuck

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So roughly 80% full hospital(s) in the WC at peak, and much of that due to long term stays by those patients. And externally processed PCR tests still trusted in determining much of who is admitted it seems.
Certainly not the massive concern signaled by this grabbamint (although EC has no doubt really been worse).

Sounds like rotten politics to me.
Interestingly, the recovery rate for EC is only 0.4% worse than for WC, the province with the most reported deaths.
 

Swa

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So roughly 80% full hospital(s) in the WC at peak, and much of that due to long term stays by those patients. And externally processed PCR tests still trusted in determining much of who is admitted it seems.
Certainly not the massive concern signaled by this grabbamint (although EC has no doubt really been worse).

Sounds like rotten politics to me.
Yup most of it is long term stays since you either seem to recover quickly from Covid or stay sick for weeks or months even. If cases were really spiking like they claim during these waves then you'd expect them to be overflowing since they get in quick but don't get out quickly again. It's understandable those working in hospitals will see things differently but it does not correlate with the numbers.
 

Geoff.D

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Yup most of it is long term stays since you either seem to recover quickly from Covid or stay sick for weeks or months even. If cases were really spiking like they claim during these waves then you'd expect them to be overflowing since they get in quick but don't get out quickly again. It's understandable those working in hospitals will see things differently but it does not correlate with the numbers.
A much more relevant but unreported number would be the number of people turned away from healthcare facilities. We are all so focused on those that are getting help, that we forget that these numbers might just be the tip of the proverbial iceberg.
 

Daveogg

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So roughly 80% full hospital(s) in the WC at peak, and much of that due to long term stays by those patients. And externally processed PCR tests still trusted in determining much of who is admitted it seems.
Certainly not the massive concern signaled by this grabbamint (although EC has no doubt really been worse).

Sounds like rotten politics to me.
Brian if this comment is in response to my post somewhere above, I think you have slightly misunderstood.
Our hospital generally runs at about 80-90% bed occupancy. During a wave however up to 80% of our beds had covid patients in them, not 80% of the beds were utilized. Kids still get appendicitis, grannies still fall over and fracture their hips, people have myocardial infarctions, and some people need urgent surgery for oncological or other reasons. So what did we do with the usual workload.

Everything that could wait was postponed. Some patients who ideally would have been treated surgically were treated conservatively (think wrist fractures etc). Patients were discharged quicker than perhaps was safe.

Some patients were "accommodated" in the EU while waiting a bed. At a stage patients were "camping" in a prefab structure. As elective cases were cancelled the OT's were less utilized and some were converted into temporary ICU space.

I am not sure what you mean by "externally processed PCR tests trusted in determining who is admitted."
Our hospital utilizes Ampath and Lancet, for all laboratory work. The PCR benches are situated within the labs under the control of local consultant pathologists, who are available to clinicians to advise on any abnormal results. In any event the result of the PCR does not determine if you get admitted, rather your physiological state. If you are in respiratory distress from CV19 or from fluid overload in renal failure, your level of care depends on your degree of respiratory failure.
We sent far more CV19 +ve patients home than we admitted.

Hope that clarifies a little.
 

Daveogg

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A much more relevant but unreported number would be the number of people turned away from healthcare facilities. We are all so focused on those that are getting help, that we forget that these numbers might just be the tip of the proverbial iceberg.
Hey Geoff, look at KZN excess mortality during the peak of the 2nd wave, compared to the 1st or the 3rd. I think you will see that was significantly different.
 

Cosmik Debris

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Yup most of it is long term stays since you either seem to recover quickly from Covid or stay sick for weeks or months even. If cases were really spiking like they claim during these waves then you'd expect them to be overflowing since they get in quick but don't get out quickly again. It's understandable those working in hospitals will see things differently but it does not correlate with the numbers.

And you have the number of admissions to hospitals, dates and the length of stay to correlate numbers with?

Please show me?
 
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