How much power Eskom needs to stop load shedding

[Cray]

The raw product is actually way cheaper to ship than the finished product.

Any citation for that ? As far as I know the Bauxite is refined into Aluminium oxide overseas which is the shipped here. Aluminium oxide is smelted into Aluminium at 2 KG Aluminium oxide for every 1 KG of pure aluminium (which is made into Ingots). Why would Aluminium oxide powder at twice the weight be cheaper to transport than Aluminium ingots?

 

[f2wohf]

BHP for example only employs 7k south africans. As you said everything is imported, and international prices are paid. To me, the fact they pay only 25%ish of cost for electricity, the 'benefits' are none existent. We talking 7k jobs vs millions and our economy. Cutting them and others frees up around 50% of current generation. No only that, but eskom will no longer be making a loss on the sales.

BHP is 3.7% of the consumption, it avoids importing processed aluminium (a compared cost analysis needs to establish whether Eskom losing money is a lesser or bigger loss than importing 100% of the aluminium consumption).

Secondly, with the supply chain, BHP is 33 000 jobs.

Not anywhere close to 50% of the consumption would be freed

They bring also R4.4-billion positive impact on the current account balance of payments.

For the comsumption of the smelters, you are dead wrong, the South African industry in total (including mining, cars, chemical production, oil and gas...) uses 58% of the electricity, I very strongly doubt the smelters and even the smelters + mining by themselves use 50%...



Please check your facts.

 

[f2wohf]

Any citation for that ? As far as I know the Bauxite is refined into Aluminium oxide overseas which is the shipped here. Aluminium oxide is smelted into Aluminium at 2 KG Aluminium oxide for every 1 KG of pure aluminium (which is made into Ingots). Why would Aluminium oxide powder at twice the weight be cheaper to transport than Aluminium ingots?

It's not a matter of weight but of space, powder fits in bulk carriers (which are the cheapest way of shipping) and uses all the space. Aluminium ingots don't.

Dry bulk has also a massive overcapacity which pushed down the prices since 2009.

That study of the World Bank also mentions it (http://siteresources.worldbank.org/EXTOGMC/Resources/336929-1266963339030/eifd13_wa_aluminum.pdf):

Locally produced aluminum ingots and semis could reduce costs for domestic firms and allow for expansion of these industries. Shipping costs of rolled aluminum are difficult to obtain but it was estimated in 2003 that shipping costs from South Africa to the United States for example added 6% to the price of aluminum excluding inland freight. According to Socratel, recent shipping costs of rolled aluminum from Cameroon to Europe were about US$ 75 per tonne, which is about 7% of the price assuming more ‘normal’ or trend prices. It is likely that a local source of rolled aluminum, would give local producers of finished aluminum products a 5% advantage over imported aluminum goods.

 

[ellyally]

BHP is 3.7% of the consumption, it avoids importing processed aluminium (a compared cost analysis needs to establish whether Eskom losing money is a lesser or bigger loss than importing 100% of the aluminium consumption).

Secondly, with the supply chain, BHP is 33 000 jobs.

Not anywhere close to 50% of the consumption would be freed

They bring also R4.4-billion positive impact on the current account balance of payments.

For the comsumption of the smelters, you are dead wrong, the South African industry in total (including mining, cars, chemical production, oil and gas...) uses 58% of the electricity, I very strongly doubt the smelters and even the smelters + mining by themselves use 50%...

View attachment 209836

Please check your facts.

Not talking supply chain, talking smelter. Supply chain would still exist, **** just won't get smelted here. I didn't say cutting only BHP would save 50%, but yes, smelting and mining together use roughly 50%. BHP alone uses about 1GW. Total all the smelters and its 10-15GW. THEY ARE THE BIGGEST USERS, and the smallest employers in 'industry'. All other 'industry usage' is minimal by comparison.

Older '08 gazette, but these figures are still relevant for rough idea(have newer stuffs somewhere, it exists, read it a few months back, just too lazy to look for it).

"The end-use of electricity in South Africa is currently divided between domestic (17.2%), agriculture (2.6%), mining (15%), industrial (37.7%), commercial (12.6%), transport (2.6%) and general (12.3%). South Africa has an installed generation capacity of approximately 40 000 MW. Most of this capacity emanates from coal fired power stations (88%), with the remainder coming from nuclear, hydro and diesel. South Africa's capacity reserve margin has fallen sharply in recent years to around 8%. This has placed considerable pressure on the industry. In response to this development new generation capacity will be added to the system to restore the reserve margin and meet new growth, and also to prepare for the r.eplacement of older plant."

Edit: Even if we were talking supply chain, how many jobs are lost due to load shedding annually, not to mention the billions lost to economy? Lose a million jobs a year and hundreds of billions for the sake of 33k jobs?

Another thing to consider is, when these contacts are up and they now have to pay 4x the price just to meet cost price of generation, do you really think they are going to stick around? No, they going to drop us and run off to another third world **** hole and con someone there to sign a ridiculous contract that sucks the life out of their citizens. We pay for these guys to operate here. 25-30 rand of every hundred you pay on your electricity bill goes to paying for them to be in business. They are earning enough $, they can pay their own damn bills

 

[f2wohf]

Not talking supply chain, talking smelter. Supply chain would still exist, **** just won't get smelted here. I didn't say cutting only BHP would save 50%, but yes, smelting and mining together use roughly 50%. BHP alone uses about 1GW. Total all the smelters and its 10-15GW. THEY ARE THE BIGGEST USERS, and the smallest employers in 'industry'. All other 'industry usage' is minimal by comparison.

Older '08 gazette, but these figures are still relevant for rough idea(have newer stuffs somewhere, it exists, read it a few months back, just too lazy to look for it).

"The end-use of electricity in South Africa is currently divided between domestic (17.2%), agriculture (2.6%), mining (15%), industrial (37.7%), commercial (12.6%), transport (2.6%) and general (12.3%). South Africa has an installed generation capacity of approximately 40 000 MW. Most of this capacity emanates from coal fired power stations (88%), with the remainder coming from nuclear, hydro and diesel. South Africa's capacity reserve margin has fallen sharply in recent years to around 8%. This has placed considerable pressure on the industry. In response to this development new generation capacity will be added to the system to restore the reserve margin and meet new growth, and also to prepare for the r.eplacement of older plant."

Edit: Even if we were talking supply chain, how many jobs are lost due to load shedding annually, not to mention the billions lost to economy? Lose a million jobs a year and hundreds of billions for the sake of 33k jobs?

Another thing to consider is, when these contacts are up and they now have to pay 4x the price just to meet cost price of generation, do you really think they are going to stick around? No, they going to drop us and run off to another third world **** hole and con someone there to sign a ridiculous contract that sucks the life out of their citizens. We pay for these guys to operate here. 25-30 rand of every hundred you pay on your electricity bill goes to paying for them to be in business. They are earning enough $, they can pay their own damn bills

Again, please use correct numbers.

2005 NERSA Supply Statistics (available on NERSA website):
- 37.7% of the electricity has been consumed by the entire industry sector.
- 15% by mining.





2006 NERSA Supply Statistics (last one available on NERSA website):
- 41.8% of the electricity has been consumed by the entire industry sector.
- 15.9% by mining.





2008 IEA
- 34.9% used by the industry in total.

View attachment 209836



2009 DOE Energy Balances (http://www.energy.gov.za/files/medi...Historical-Energy-Balances-per-commodity.xlsx)

From the table, you can calculate that:
- the industry is 54,45% of the total electricity consumption.
- Iron and Steel represent 16.03% of the industry which translates to 8.7% of the total electricity consumption. Even if you aggregate iron and steel, non ferrous metals and non metallic minerals, you only reach 18.1% of the national consumption.
- Mining is 14.6%.

You see that all the numbers are close, whichever the source.

We can assume from it that smelters are 8% of the total electricity and maximum 18% (even though I don't see that non metallic minerals are smelted) which assuming an installed capacity of Eskom of 40Gwh would make a maximum of 7,24 GWh, and assuming the more reasonable 8%, it would be 3.2 GWh.

Very very far from your 10/15GWh...

Actually, the total of the industry sector uses less than 10 GWh (9.2 GWh) if you take the consumed per annum 80 925 580 MWh / 365 / 24.


As far as BHP's huge profits are concerned, their smelters are deficitary and even their entire aluminium division. They make their money from other activities.

 

[HavocXphere]

Ignoring the massive BHP derail for a second...

This is actually really encouraging. He is definitely making the right noises and at least asking the right questions. Maybe not answers yet...but its a massive improvement over the polished turds that they were previously releasing as PR.

Big thumbs up!