How South Korea Reined In The Outbreak Without Shutting Everything Down

Daruk

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As of this week South Korea had just over 9,000 confirmed coronavirus cases, which puts it among the top ten countries for total cases.

But South Korea has another distinction: Health experts are noting that recently the nation has managed to significantly slow the number of new cases. And they've appeared to have reigned in the outbreak without some of the strict lockdown strategies deployed elsewhere in the world.

Speaking this week to journalists, Ryan said that countries that have tested widely for the virus, isolated cases and quarantined suspected cases — in the way that South Korea and Singapore have — have managed to suppress transmission of the virus. President Trump has also praised South Korea's handling of the health crisis and even asked President Moon Jae-in for help with medical equipment to fight the outbreak in the United States.


The head of WHO, Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, has called on other countries around the world to "apply the lessons learned in [South] Korea and elsewhere" in their own battles with this pathogen.

"In mid-January our health authorities quickly conferred with the research institutions here [to develop a test]," Kang says. "And then they shared that result with the pharmaceutical companies who then produced the reagent [chemical] and the equipment needed for the testing."

"Testing is central" to the outbreak response, says Kang, "because that leads to early detection. It minimizes further spread." And it allows health authorities to quickly isolate and treat those found with the virus.

Hong Kong and Singapore have followed similar paths in responding to this outbreak.

They've all used testing aggressively to identify cases — not only testing people who are so sick that they're hospitalized but also mild cases and even suspected cases. They've all quarantined tens of thousands of people who may have been exposed to confirmed cases.
 

saor

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For those who think testing is expensive, let's first see what 21 days shut down costs, then do the math.
I'm not following what you're implying here?
It's not like everyone can just go get a test done even if they had the money.
 

saor

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Lupus

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I've seen this figure thrown around previously so I'll take it at more or less face value. If OP is asking us to 'do the math', then what's the math on a 56 million population trying to get tests done at 5000 per day?
5000 a day would take 50 years to finish off our population, at the current 5000 a week it'll be 210 years.
 

saor

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5000 a day would take 50 years to finish off our population, at the current 5000 a week it'll be 210 years.
Right. So even if everyone could afford it, the math OP is suggesting is kinda moot. Unless we're imagining a world in which tests are available to everyone then yes - obviously it would make sense to get tested. In the real world in SA the cost of a test isn't the prohibitive factor.
 

Daruk

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I just replied a few posts up?
See the 5000 a day limit and @Lupus math.
What is that capacity based on... skills shortage I'm guessing? Our population size is much the same as South Korea, obviously our per capita GDP is around 5 times less and we have much higher distribution, but certainly in cities, we should be able to find the money to scale up our testing - at least double it. And South Korea is not testing the entire population - far from it. They are testing and they are coupling that with quarrantining suspected cases...
No, we're not South Korea, but do you honestly believe we're doing all we can? Perhaps we need to wait for the postmorem to answer that?
 

saor

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What is that capacity based on... skills shortage I'm guessing?
Seems partly a function of the test itself:

At the center of all of this chaos is a relatively straightforward type of test called a polymerase chain reaction, or PCR, that’s been around for decades. To run it, a doctor swabs a patient’s nose or throat and sends the sample to a lab. The lab then looks for tiny snippets of the virus’s genetic material. PCR analysis is complicated but reliable.
.......

PCR works. But in an outbreak situation, even if it’s working well, it’s still too slow. Ideally, physicians would be able to run tests in an office or right at a patient’s bedside. The technology to test that way exists. But there hasn’t been a large-scale investment made to commercialize it, so there’s no clear pathway to get it up and running during an emergency.


https://www.theverge.com/2020/3/17/21184015/coronavirus-testing-pcr-diagnostic-point-of-care-cdc-techonology
 

RedViking

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In otherwords you need good medical facilities and personnel and be able to do tests and more tests and more tests. We only woke up yesterday, most still think it is the flu, and we can barely do a couple of hundred tests a day.

This 21 day lockdown is massive joke as most went and got properly infected today. The symptoms will probably only start showing when lockdown is almost over and then the popo hits the fan with the economy shattered.... and then it only starts.

It is just the flu my bru, will become, its just another funeral, miss you my bru.
 

Nemoneiros

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As of this week South Korea had just over 9,000 confirmed coronavirus cases, which puts it among the top ten countries for total cases.

But South Korea has another distinction: Health experts are noting that recently the nation has managed to significantly slow the number of new cases. And they've appeared to have reigned in the outbreak without some of the strict lockdown strategies deployed elsewhere in the world.

Speaking this week to journalists, Ryan said that countries that have tested widely for the virus, isolated cases and quarantined suspected cases — in the way that South Korea and Singapore have — have managed to suppress transmission of the virus. President Trump has also praised South Korea's handling of the health crisis and even asked President Moon Jae-in for help with medical equipment to fight the outbreak in the United States.


The head of WHO, Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, has called on other countries around the world to "apply the lessons learned in [South] Korea and elsewhere" in their own battles with this pathogen.

"In mid-January our health authorities quickly conferred with the research institutions here [to develop a test]," Kang says. "And then they shared that result with the pharmaceutical companies who then produced the reagent [chemical] and the equipment needed for the testing."

"Testing is central" to the outbreak response, says Kang, "because that leads to early detection. It minimizes further spread." And it allows health authorities to quickly isolate and treat those found with the virus.

Hong Kong and Singapore have followed similar paths in responding to this outbreak.

They've all used testing aggressively to identify cases — not only testing people who are so sick that they're hospitalized but also mild cases and even suspected cases. They've all quarantined tens of thousands of people who may have been exposed to confirmed cases.
We've made a new thread for every what +50 cases?
going to take a while to get to that number...
 

Hamish McPanji

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They found the first infected people , and traced who they were in contact with, and who they in turn were in contact with, etc

So they were able to track the spread of the disease in a forensic manner...and deal with it.

The key was catching it early, whilst other countries spent their time playing with their dicks. All this faffing about, made it impossible to track the spread in other countries.
 

itsme2

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In otherwords you need good medical facilities and personnel and be able to do tests and more tests and more tests. We only woke up yesterday, most still think it is the flu, and we can barely do a couple of hundred tests a day.

This 21 day lockdown is massive joke as most went and got properly infected today. The symptoms will probably only start showing when lockdown is almost over and then the popo hits the fan with the economy shattered.... and then it only starts.

It is just the flu my bru, will become, its just another funeral, miss you my bru.
The probability of contracting it from a shopping trip is minimal.
 

Gordon_R

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They found the first infected people , and traced who they were in contact with, and who they in turn were in contact with, etc

So they were able to track the spread of the disease in a forensic manner...and deal with it.

The key was catching it early, whilst other countries spent their time playing with their dicks. All this faffing about, made it impossible to track the spread in other countries.
South Africa followed a lot of the Korean lead with contact tracing and testing of travel related cases. The fact that we have 900+ cases and zero deaths (so far) must tell you something...
 

OrbitalDawn

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Not super helpful that the answer is basically 'invent time travel and do mass testing + track & trace immediately', unfortunately.

Also not entirely accurate to say they didn't shut things down - they shut schools completely. Also had heavy remote working and closure of businesses (which people did voluntarily, IIRC, so not enforced by gov).
 
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Geoff.D

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The part I find objectionable in the above article is this:
The head of WHO, Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, has called on other countries around the world to "apply the lessons learned in [South] Korea and elsewhere" in their own battles with this pathogen
The WHO has let the entire World down. They have been shown to be a spineless organisation incapable of implementing their own protocols and policies, totally subservient to the politicians and SJWs that pervade their ranks.
 

OrbitalDawn

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The part I find objectionable in the above article is this:


The WHO has let the entire World down. They have been shown to be a spineless organisation incapable of implementing their own protocols and policies, totally subservient to the politicians and SJWs that pervade their ranks.
Utter drivel.
 

Lupus

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Right. So even if everyone could afford it, the math OP is suggesting is kinda moot. Unless we're imagining a world in which tests are available to everyone then yes - obviously it would make sense to get tested. In the real world in SA the cost of a test isn't the prohibitive factor.
Yup we would need to be testing 150 000 a day and that would have tested the current population in a year and and 14 days give or take
 
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