If governments knew with certainty that an asteroid or comet is going to impact Earth

[Humberto]

in the next few years or decades, and that such an impact would cause the extinction of the human race, do you think they would tell the public about it, or would they keep it a secret to avoid anarchy, only announcing it once the path of the body has been changed to avoid a collision with Earth (if this is possible), or simply not revealing it at all if a collision is unavoidable?

 

[CommonSense]

I don't think any government on earth would be able to keep something as earth-shattering as this a secret.

Besides, given enough time there are plenty of options available to change the course of the asteroid. I'm sure that money would not be a limiting factor if this scenario were to become true.

Edit: Astronomers are not politicians. And governments would not be able to control all of the professional and amateur astronomers out there.

 

[sand_man]

Is there something you want to tell us?

 

[DJ...]

Astronomers are not controlled by the government. The information would be released to the public regardless of what their opinion on the matter is...

 

[chrisc]

And then...?

 

[Humberto]

If I were an astronomer with this type of information I don't think I would release it to the public. I would contact the authorities to let them decide how to manage the information. It could cause pandemonium if this type of information is not managed correctly.

Look how people react when they hear there might be a petrol shortage. It becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy because of panic buying.

Imagine astronomers determine that the solar system will be hit by a gamma ray burst in the next few months. Do you release this information and have society collapse through the panic and chaos that comes from knowing that mankind will become extinct, or do you keep the information secret so that society may exist in an orderly manner for these last few months before the end?

 

[CommonSense]

If I were an astronomer with this type of information I don't think I would release it to the public. I would contact the authorities to let them decide how to manage the information. It could cause pandemonium if this type of information is not managed correctly.

Look how people react when they hear there might be a petrol shortage. It becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy because of panic buying.

Imagine astronomers determine that the solar system will be hit by a gamma ray burst in the next few months. Do you release this information and have society collapse through the panic and chaos that comes from knowing that mankind will become extinct, or do you keep the information secret so that society may exist in an orderly manner for these last few months before the end?

The first thing the astronomer would ask is for fellow astronomers worldwide to confirm the sighting.
From that point onwards the GENIE would be out of the bottle. It WILL leak.
We don't live in the time where information such as this could be kept secret.

And besides. Which government have you known to be able to keep a secret? NONE! Don't watch too many conspiracy programs.

By the way, gamma ray bursts travel at the speed of light, so there would not be months worth of warning. Our many observatories capable of detecting that type of radiation are relatively close to Earth. The earth's magnetic field should protect us. If a star within a couple of light years from us would happen to go supernova and send out such a burst, there would be no warning to sit on for months.

 

[azbob]

And then...?

 

[chrisc]

If I were an astronomer with this type of information I don't think I would release it to the public. I would contact the authorities to let them decide how to manage the information. It could cause pandemonium if this type of information is not managed correctly.

You mean the ANC led authority. Be sure to speak slowly using short words

 

[intel8080]

in the next few years or decades, and that such an impact would cause the extinction of the human race, do you think they would tell the public about it, or would they keep it a secret to avoid anarchy, only announcing it once the path of the body has been changed to avoid a collision with Earth (if this is possible), or simply not revealing it at all if a collision is unavoidable?

Why do you have to bring race into everything? Which human race are you referring to? White and yellow might be able to do something about it. Red and black, venom lack On a more serious note, I presume you, like most other Johnny Bravos out there, confuse races with species big time. NP The possibility of a asteroid killing man on earth is quickly becoming less and less possible. The reason is twofold. First, more and more sophisticated equipment can detect most big asteroids and comets well in advance. Secondly and probably more important, if the earth will not get hit in the next few decades then it will never get hit because of exponential scientific and technological development. Honestly, we all stand a much greater chance of dying of old age or AIDS or some other "local" cause, then been killed by a asteroid of comet or extra terrestrials. WTF

 

[Humberto]

One might be able to predict gamma ray bursts by studying other aspects of a star system. For example, one might be able to predict a hypernova by calculating when the two stars of a binary star system collide with each other. My understanding is that no life on Earth would survive a gamma ray burst from a star located within 8000 light years of Earth.

 

[CommonSense]

One might be able to predict gamma ray bursts by studying other aspects of a star system. For example, one might be able to predict a hypernova by calculating when the two stars of a binary star system collide with each other. My understanding is that no life on Earth would survive a gamma ray burst from a star located within 8000 light years of Earth.

A candidate you are talking about could be Eta Carinae.
Because this star is more than 100 solar masses, and has been shown to be in the last stages of it's life, astronomers have been keeping an eye on it. It is expected to go supernova 'soon', but you have to realize that in astronomical terms, 'soon' could be in a couple of years up to in a million years.

You can get more information by reading up on Swift.

This link will allay your fears.

"Subject: Can a Gamma-ray destroy the earth There is so much talk about a huge gamma-ray destroying the earth. Is that possible?

Answer provided by Phil Plait (SSU NASA Education Resource Director):
I think what you mean is a "gamma-ray burst", and not just a gamma ray. Gamma rays are a form of light, like the light we see, except with millions or even billions of times the energy. It takes a very powerful event to create gamma rays.

A gamma-ray burst (or GRB) is just such an event! It's a huge explosion in space, and scientists think they occur when either a very massive star explodes, or two ultra-dense neutron stars collide. Either way, we think a GRB signals the birth of a black hole.

Every GRB ever seen (and we've seen almost 3000 of them) has been very, very far away-- hundreds of millions to billions of light years distant. At those extreme distances, they can't hurt us.

But if one were close, then yes, it could damage the Earth, or even destroy it totally! But it would have to be very close, probably inside our own Milky Way Galaxy. In any one galaxy, GRBs are extremely rare, and we don't know of any stars that might form one anytime soon (like, in the next several million years). So we're probably safe.

Some scientists think that in the distant past, a nearby GRB did cause a mass extinction on Earth-- the Ordovician event, which was 440 million years ago. About 70% of all species on Earth were wiped out, and no one is really sure what caused it. A GRB is a possibility, but it has not been conclusively proved. You can read more about that on this Kansas University website

So the answer to your question is technically "yes", but I wouldn't let it cause you to lose any sleep! "

 

[zippy]

Depends how big and where it would strike. If wasn't too large and was going smash into some other a-holes country, it might be "too difficult to intercept"

 

[grok]

The Americans are probably in the best position to spot & realise the threat but it would be a global issue, i.e. it wouldn't be up to just one government so it might be difficult to keep secret or enforce. Either way do we really have the tech to even try & prevent such an event? Or even deal with the aftermath? Dunno whether telling or not would make any difference or not.

One thing I suspect is our own government would be too busy to try & determine the color of the comet to be able to blame someone afterwards.

 

[CommonSense]

The Americans are probably in the best position to spot & realise the threat but it would be a global issue, i.e. it wouldn't be up to just one government so it might be difficult to keep secret or enforce. Either way do we really have the tech to even try & prevent such an event? Or even deal with the aftermath? Dunno whether telling or not would make any difference or not.

One thing I suspect is our own government would be too busy to try & determine the color of the comet to be able to blame someone afterwards.

Do we have the tech? Yes! The major critical factor is not technology or resources. It's time! We need time to build the things to do what we decide to do.

Remember, you don't need to destroy the asteroid, you just need to push it (or pull it with gravity) off-course so that it does not strike the earth. Then you need to prevent it from hitting a key-hole (where it is put into an orbit to hit the earth at a later stage). But even if it does pass through a key-hole, it is ok, as it buys a bit more time. And you can use that time to push it off even more.