International COVID-19 Updates & Discussion 2

[OrbitalDawn]

Worthwhile reading.

https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2020/03/17/1584439125000/That-Imperial-coronavirus-report--in-detail-/

 

[semaphore]

Worthwhile reading.

https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2020/03/17/1584439125000/That-Imperial-coronavirus-report--in-detail-/

Behind registration wall.

 

[OrbitalDawn]

Israel starts surveilling virus carriers, sends 400 who were nearby to isolation

As controversial tracking starts, people who were in close contact with those confirmed to have COVID-19 are informed by text message they must home-quarantine

www.timesofisrael.com

The Health Ministry announced Wednesday it has begun using mass surveillance tools to retrace the movements of coronavirus carriers and has already informed 400 people in contact with them that they must enter quarantine.

 

[Hamish McPanji]

Some of you will be too young. to know what this is.

If for one won't go near any rushed 'vaccine'.

View attachment 803669

Look at the bright side. At least within a few months the tourists will return to SA...and bring the vaccine with them. Will cost us nothing

 

[OrbitalDawn]

Behind registration wall.

Ah, strange. Was open when I read it.

The University's media release here:

COVID-19: Imperial researchers model likely impact of public health measures | Imperial News | Imperial College London

Researchers from Imperial have analysed the likely impact of multiple public health measures on slowing and suppressing the spread of coronavirus.

www.imperial.ac.uk

Original study here:

COVID-19

Since the emergence of the new coronavirus (COVID-19) in December 2019, we have adopted a policy of immediately sharing research findings on the deve...

www.imperial.ac.uk

Media article here:

Imperial College Epidemiologists Report Forecasts Up To 2.2 Million COVID-19 Deaths In US, 510,000 In UK

A report by Imperial College of London has influenced policy makers in the US and UK governments. it projects 510,000 deaths in the UK and 2.2 million in the US if no action is taken to lessen the impact of the virus.

cleantechnica.com

 

[Arthur]

@Arthur do you still think the flu is worse?

So far, yes. The facts speak for themselves. Global Covid-19 death toll is still far below H1N1 and H5N1.

 

[Unhappy438]

The sooner we get this over and done the better!!!

This is not the end of the F end world!

People are losing their mind over pity kak again.

Blame the social media and reporters for blowing it out of proportion again. Cancer and aids have killed more people. Hope you guys just do not catch the flu that might be even worse!

LIVE | Government again postpones briefing to clarify who moves to Level 3

Stay up to date with the latest news, views and analysis as the number of coronavirus cases in SA increases.

www.news24.com

The flu bros are back.

 

[Unhappy438]

So far, yes. The facts speak for themselves. Global Covid-19 death toll is still far below H1N1 and H5N1.

Your numbers on those two?

 

[CataclysmZA]

Porn industry aside, can you guys imagine the utter chaos when ISPs and other managed service providers start shutting down? "Cloud" is just someone else's server with your crap stored on it, and everything still needs people to keep it running.

Have you met the IT nerds running ISP datacenters? They either do everything remotely, or they sit five meters away from the 50cm thick soundproof door that leads to the server room. They'll keep things running just fine. You can run a cluster of 10,000 servers with a skeleton crew of just five people because everything is redundant.

1) how much can Chinese numbers be trusted?

The data from China now is very reliable and can be trusted. They are spending billions now helping other countries to recover from their outbreaks, and they push research out like it's Szechuan sauce at a Rick and Morty convention.

2) Chinas percentage increase had already long stabilized and was in fact going down at around 8% with 40k infected. Italy had a brief period of increase percentage stabilization but now its gone up again.

Keep in mind that China literally tore up roads to cities, and then forcefully barricaded people in their homes and forced them to accept food and grocery deliveries while they built makeshift quarantine zones and shipped 10,000 doctors across the country to Hubei province. China did what most countries couldn't dream of doing, and the CCP stepped up their game to contain the spread.

Italy on the other hand has a lot of people who smoke and have underlying conditions, and they just weren't ready for the sudden influx of people who required hospitalisation for days on end. Their government was slow to act and slow to test people, and that brief stabilisation period was the curve flattening slightly. Then the number of infections ramped up from there and their hospitals are overwhelmed. Clusters broke out across the country as people fled Lombardy before the lockdown, and that's where the rest of the country's infections come from.

Looks like both treatment and vaccine will start to be tested and fast tracked in US in next couple of days.

Optimistic estimates are 12 months from now, because the person who took the vaccine needs to be monitored for a sufficiently long period of time to gauge side effects and lethality. Then there's still the human trials phase to determine dosage, which can be six months out of that 12.

And then there's production. Will it be an open source drug? That's the only way we can distribute enough globally before the second wave gains momentum.

People are losing their mind over pity kak again.

Blame the social media and reporters for blowing it out of proportion again. Cancer and aids have killed more people. Hope you guys just do not catch the flu that might be even worse!

 

[The_Right_Honourable_Brit]

Behind registration wall.

If you use Chrome, get this add-on: https://github.com/iamadamdev/bypass-paywalls-chrome
If you use Firefox, get this add-on: https://github.com/iamadamdev/bypass-paywalls-firefox

 

[CataclysmZA]

 

[Unhappy438]

The data from China now is very reliable and can be trusted.

Based on what though?

 

[OrbitalDawn]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1240371160078000128

 

[CataclysmZA]

Based on what though?

Pretty much every researcher or doctor I've followed posting stuff online on Reddit, Twitter, and Youtube have either used data from recently published papers from places like China, Taiwan, and South Korea, are co-authoring papers with Chinese doctors, or they're writing papers analysing data submitted by hospitals from China for worldwide analysis.

This guide for hospitals, for example, has in-depth looks at 104 patients at the First Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine. Every patient recovered and they were able to collect huge amounts of biological samples to help others study the disease at different stages.

China is also shipping supplies and epidemiologists fresh out of hell in Wuhan to other countries to help them combat the virus. At this stage, they're doing all they can to make up for their ****-up in not preventing the spread sooner.

 

[The_Right_Honourable_Brit]

Positive coronavirus stories – Thursday 19 March

• A silver lining for pangolins – Vietnam is going to end its trade in wild animals killed for meat or parts after Covid-19 has been linked to transmission from bats to humans via a wildlife host. The ministry of agriculture is said to be drawing up the directive "quickly" to present by April 1. The WWF has said it's inspired a crackdown on the trade in pangolin scales.
• Approximately 250 community groups have been set up across the UK in the last few weeks to help those in self-isolation or those suffering from coronavirus. The groups are organised by Covid-19 Mutual Aid UK and offer help with shopping, dog walking, and picking up prescriptions.
• In Israel last night, the president, Reuven Rivlin, invited parents and children to join him for story-time on his Facebook page. Mr Rivlin read the children's book "A Flat for Rent" by Leah Goldberg. The book is based on an eastern European fable and is a classic of children's literature about the importance of being friendly to your neighbours.
• China has offered to provide more than two million medical masks and 50,000 coronavirus testing kits to Europe. Last Thursday Italy and Spain received 1.8 million masks from China.
• In the Netherlands, James Crisp reports that 175 Dutch churches rang their bells between 7pm and 7.15pm last night as a "sign of hope" against coronavirus. The bell-ringing, inspired by the nationwide tradition of applauding healthcare workers from balconies, will be repeated on March 25 and April 1.
• A 79-year-old Italian man has successfully been cured of coronavirus after being treated with an experimental drug called remdesivir. The man has been given the all clear and the drug is currently being tested in five Covid-19 clinical trials.
• Meanwhile Belgians are sponsoring meatball meals – a national favourite – for hospital workers. Ball and Glory, a Belgian meatball restaurant, had a lot of leftover food after a catering contract was cancelled. Members of the public are paying €8 for a meatball meal to be delivered to hospitals for medical personnel. Confined Belgians have also started applauding hospital workers from their apartment balconies, inspired by similar events in France, the Netherlands, Spain and Italy.
• In Russia, the synchronized swimming team performed the dance routine of the Russian band picked to represent the country at Eurovision to cheer them up after the contest was cancelled, Nataliya Vasilyeva reports. You can watch the video here.
• And back in the UK, James Sills launched The Sofa Singers – a virtual choir – last night. Sills, a musician who lives in north Wales, was joined by 400 people for a 45-minute rehearsal featuring Stand By Me by Ben E. King and Just The Way You Are by Bruno Mars.

 

[semaphore]

Positive coronavirus stories – Thursday 19 March

Could this be the beginning of Starfleet...

 

[braailekker11]

Positive coronavirus stories – Thursday 19 March

****, I need this!!

 

[lived666]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1240740851346747396

 

[CataclysmZA]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1240740851346747396

In the Ant-Man comics, one of the things Hank Pym tells Scott Lang to watch out for when shrinking is viruses because they will kill him.

 

[Arthur]

Your numbers on those two?

My numbers? I don't keep a record, but the WHO and numerous other national and international experts do.

For H1N1 in 2009/10, in the entry for 2009 Flu Pandemic, Wikipedia reports:

"It is estimated that 11–21% of the global population at the time — or around 700 million–1.4 billion people (out of a total of 6.8 billion) — contracted the illness – more than the number of people infected by the Spanish flu pandemic, with about 150,000–575,000 fatalities."

Do you remember how we went into global lockdown? I don't.

As to expert predictions vs actual reality, the Wikipedia entry for H5N1 has this rather revealing bit (underline mine):

"In 2003, world-renowned virologist Robert G. Webster published an article titled "The world is teetering on the edge of a pandemic that could kill a large fraction of the human population" in American Scientist. He called for adequate resources to fight what he sees as a major world threat to possibly billions of lives. On September 29, 2005, David Nabarro, the newly appointed Senior United Nations System Coordinator for Avian and Human Influenza, warned the world that an outbreak of avian influenza could kill anywhere between 5 million and 150 million people."

Needless to say, this was so far off the mark that these people should be laughed out of polite company.