International COVID-19 Updates & Discussion 2

[krycor]

Great, so now they'll want our poop samples as well

Could be useful in eg SA to quickly back up stats on figuring out how bad things really are as it means less individual testing (costly)

 

[Gordon_R]

Singapore is a lesson on how a country can do everything right, and seem to have things under control, only for events to deteriorate in segments of the population:

Coronavirus: Should the world worry about Singapore's virus surge?

With cases increasing in tightly-packed dormitories, experts say Singapore offers a salutary lesson.

www.bbc.com

While new cases had been increasing incrementally, by mid-March there were many dozens a day. The majority were imported or linked to imported cases, but for the first time, not all domestic cases could be easily traced.

Prof Teo says it's easy to say with hindsight that it was a mistake to not limit returnees' interactions. But the reality is "right now, we know a lot more about the disease compared to back in March".

"We now know that asymptomatic spread is entirely possible - it does happen and could be the main driver of transmission for Covid-19," says Prof Teo.

But the alarming exponential rise in the last week has been around Singapore's migrant worker population - the hundreds of thousands of men from poorer countries employed in construction, shipping, and maintenance.

Singapore is utterly dependent on these workers to keep its economy operating, but they are jobs in which social distancing is all but impossible.

On top of that, the workers are required by law to live in dormitories - privately-run facilities which house up to 12 men per room, with shared bathroom, cooking and social facilities.

 

[krycor]

Is it just me or does it seem like brexit, Trump, corona etc seem to be where the world split off on an apocalyptic alternate universe. Ie all things that seem very off plot from where things were headed..

 

[flippakitten]

Another impressive day from ze efficient Germans. Just 1500 recoveries behind Spain despite having ~35000 fewer cases (and that's definitely not due to a lack of testing!). Racking up the good numbers.

Cases +2200
Recoveries +4000
Deaths +102.

They're just being very German about it.
"Rules are ve should test, ve test."

Their numbers are a good indication of what's actually happening.

 

[Gordon_R]

New York seems to be the worst affected: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52239261

New York state now has more coronavirus cases than any other country outside the US, according to latest figures.

The state's confirmed caseload of Covid-19 jumped by 10,000 on Thursday to 159,937, placing it ahead of Spain (153,000 cases) and Italy (143,000).

The number of coronavirus deaths in New York state increased to 799 on Wednesday, a record high for a third day.

But Governor Andrew Cuomo took heart from the fact that the number of Covid-19 patients admitted to New York hospitals dropped for a second day, to 200.

He said it was a sign social distancing was working.

 

[Lupus]

New York seems to be the worst affected: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52239261

Highly infected areas seem to have high air pollution levels, also close together. Remember it's not the whole of Italy or Spain it's specific areas of it.

 

[Archer]

So today is the first time since Netherlands has gone into their intelligent lockdown that I've been asked to come into the office (we're welcome to refuse for any reason). We're a company of around 125 people and are limiting people in the office to a maximum of 10 per day, although in reality the average is more like 3 people.
It's also the first time I've gone more than 2km from home, so it was interesting to see what is and isn't going on:

• Essentially zero bicycle traffic
• Automotive traffic is by my guess at 10% of normal
• Some construction (roadworks and buildnigs) is going ahead. I assume it's since they are machine intensive (hence very few people on site). A single lane road for instance can be made by two people
• An external contractor is working on the roof here, the dude invaded my 1.5m bubble!

 

[Brian_G]

Is it just me or does it seem like brexit, Trump, corona etc seem to be where the world split off on an apocalyptic alternate universe. Ie all things that seem very off plot from where things were headed..

It certainly seems very strange, why some think it's engineered.

 

[Archer]

It certainly seems very strange, why some think it's engineered.

Yes our brains are not made for such things. Our basic wiring wants to attribute terrible events to a tangible something. In other words, we struggle to accept random events (such as Covid-19). I believe the Kurzgesagt video on the epidemic explained it as well

 

[Brian_G]

Good point. Though we also need to remember that history is full of psychopathic leaders, so let's at least be on our toes about this.

 

[Hamish McPanji]

Coronavirus mutated into three distinct strains as it spread across the world Experts have been following the ‘family tree’ of coronavirus as it spread

Richard Hartley-Parkinson Friday 10 Apr 2020 8:15 am

Researchers who mapped some of the original spread of coronavirus in humans have discovered there are variants of the virus throughout the world. They reconstructed the early evolutionary paths of Covid-19 as infection spread from Wuhan, China, out to Europe and North America.

By analysing the first 160 complete virus genomes to be sequenced from human patients, scientists found the variant closest to that discovered in bats was largely found in patients from the US and Australia, not Wuhan.

Dr Peter Forster, geneticist and lead author from the University of Cambridge, said: ‘There are too many rapid mutations to neatly trace a Covid-19 family tree. We used a mathematical network algorithm to visualise all the plausible trees simultaneously.

Read more: https://metro.co.uk/2020/04/10/coro...-across-world-12536852/?ITO=squid?ito=cbshare

So it likely mutated in Wuhan itself? With the 3rd type being the one in Europe?

Maybe it's because different countries are using different manufacturers of 5g equipment . Australia and US have banned Huawei

 

[The_Right_Honourable_Brit]

Paywall but I will give the key excerpts:

Many more people may have been infected with the coronavirus and acquired immunity than previously thought, according to a groundbreaking study in Germany.
Scientists studying the town at the epicentre of Germany's first major outbreak said they had found antibodies to the virus in people who had shown no symptoms and were not previously thought to have been infected.
Initial results released on Thursday suggest as many as 15 per cent of the town may already have immunity — three times as many as previous estimates.
The findings suggest the mortality rate for the virus in Germany is just 0.37 per cent — five times lower than current estimates.
“This means a gradual relaxation of the lockdown is now possible,” Prof Hendrik Streeck, the virologist leading the study told a press conference.
“Because the people in Germany have been so careful and disciplined, we are now able to move on to the second phase.”

Many people may already have immunity to coronavirus, German study finds

Large numbers may have been infected without knowing it – and that means lockdown could soon be lifted, scientists in Germany say

www.telegraph.co.uk

 

[sand_man]

Legit? Wow...

 

[Gordon_R]

Paywall but I will give the key excerpts:

Many people may already have immunity to coronavirus, German study finds

Large numbers may have been infected without knowing it – and that means lockdown could soon be lifted, scientists in Germany say

www.telegraph.co.uk

I won't comment on the source, but it is clear that the mortality rate amongst fit young adults is very low (< 0.5-1%). It is not clear what segments of the population were exposed to the virus, and how many of the high risk segment went into self-imposed social-isolation.

IMO it is premature to extrapolate much from this, since herd-immunity requires a high fraction (50-70%) of the population to have developed antibodies. No country has come anywhere close to these levels yet.

 

[MiW]

Coronavirus: New York ramps up mass burials amid outbreak

Drone footage shows coffins stacked in a pit in the city, as the state logs more cases than any country.

www.bbc.com

 

[The_Right_Honourable_Brit]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1248606918966304770

Wow, what a great story!

 

[Blackhand]

The Swedish model - no lockdown, apart from elderly. It appears to work

Has Sweden Found the Right Solution to the Coronavirus? | National Review

Unlike other countries, it has so far avoided both isolation and economic ruin.

www.nationalreview.com

Time will tell in the long run, but it honestly doesn't look good in Sweden. Very high mortality rate and an exponential acceleration in the number of infections and deaths. Their scientific community has been pretty outspoken with petitions and an open letter to the government about what they believe to be the poor policies.

They are only now implementing harsher restrictions as the hospitals fill up and the military are building field hospitals to try and cope. From what I understand, the laws/regulations prevent the government from implementing much stricter measures quickly. They are seeking "executive powers" to bypass that.

It may be fine, it may be a catastrophe.

 

[The_Right_Honourable_Brit]

I won't comment on the source, but it is clear that the mortality rate amongst fit young adults is very low (< 0.5-1%). It is not clear what segments of the population were exposed to the virus, and how many of the high risk segment went into self-imposed social-isolation.

IMO it is premature to extrapolate much from this, since herd-immunity requires a high fraction (50-70%) of the population to have developed antibodies. No country has come anywhere close to these levels yet.

Here is the 'open source' version of the study: https://reason.com/2020/04/09/preli...infection-fatality-rate-of-about-0-4-percent/

 

[The_Right_Honourable_Brit]

Italy extends lockdown to the 3rd of May:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1248667974619332610

 

[Gordon_R]

Not exactly news, but the head of the WHO is emphasizing that restrictions should not be lifted too soon:

Coronavirus: 'Deadly resurgence' if curbs lifted too early, WHO warns

Countries should be cautious about lifting lockdown measures, the World Health Organization says.

www.bbc.com