International COVID-19 Updates & Discussion 2

Arthur

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Well, I broke my own rule and succumbed to watch this video. It is a must-see.
Ditto. I have no idea who the presenter is or what his business is. The link was posted on another forum's chat and I actually watched.

It's a pretty fair summary of what we know about this disease, in my view.
 

TribbleZA

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Why don't they deliver to people's houses? This way of doing it is not good.
Logistically it is not always feasible. Have you ever driven around Diepsloot? I have done parcel deliveries at schools - those are pretty easy to get to. In the residential places you get turned around if you are not completely familiar with the area. You also get swarmed as not every one knew about the parcels so did not sign up. And when the truck arrives to deliver - many more show up demanding feeding. So they are trying to swap to a voucher system connected to bank cards. So far the test phase is going well. Each card will contain about R400

If anyone would like to get involved - here is their YouTube channel that will tell you more about it.
 
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Verde

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Excess deaths = deaths per 2020 day - deaths per average of 2018-2019 on corresponding day.

1590404020790.png
59% of excess deaths in 85+ age group. 38% were 65-84 = 97% over 65.
Deaths were above average from 15 March to 30 April.
 

Verde

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France per month.
Based on the previous graph the epidemic was over by the start of May, so I used May and June 2019 to estimate those months.
The graphs show the worst 3 seasons for mortality in France since 1946, and the worst season per decade. 2006 is also included as it was the least deadly year since 1946.

1590404394176.png
1590404502193.png
 

tetrasect

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Well, I broke my own rule and succumbed to watch this video. It is a must-see.
Ditto. I have no idea who the presenter is or what his business is. The link was posted on another forum's chat and I actually watched.

It's a pretty fair summary of what we know about this disease, in my view.
That video is absolute garbage. This guy is being purposefully misleading and is outright lying.
I just skipped to a random place in the video and he is saying that Sweden has achieved herd immunity!? (you can see his eyes shift when he is telling this obvious lie).
Skipped forward a bit and he says that social distancing is unscientific and was "invented" by a 14 year old girl who did a computer simulation about it. What a load of crap!

Not even gonna waste any more time on this video, it's very easy to see this is verifiably false information.
 
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tetrasect

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France per month.
Based on the previous graph the epidemic was over by the start of May, so I used May and June 2019 to estimate those months.
The graphs show the worst 3 seasons for mortality in France since 1946, and the worst season per decade. 2006 is also included as it was the least deadly year since 1946.

View attachment 845551
View attachment 845553
Don't see the point in comparing 2020 to a time when things like smallpox were still a thing.
 

tetrasect

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Some of your presumptions and closed-mindedness speak volumes.
My mind is plenty open, unless your definition of an open mind is blindly believing blatant lies and misinformation.
Sorry but I have no tolerance for such things. Actually pisses me off, the amount of absolute garbage people send each other on Whatsapp and forward on to the next person without ever giving a single thought to whether it's actually true or not (which in most cases it is not).
 

Brian_G

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Good to hear. And when you spend as much time doing and sharing careful research about this subject as has been done tirelessly by the current regulars on this forum, for months, perhaps you can talk more. There's been little tolerance of the very garbage you mention, at least in these main threads, and few here have any doubt about how useless Whatsapp and other social media usually are.
Don't be so certain that the seemingly impossible can always be ruled out, history will prove you wrong puulenty.
 

tetrasect

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Good to hear. And when you spend as much time doing and sharing careful research about this subject as has been done tirelessly by the current regulars on this forum, for months, perhaps you can talk more. There's been little tolerance of the very garbage you mention, at least in these main threads, and few here have any doubt about how useless Whatsapp and other social media usually are.
Don't be so certain that the seemingly impossible can always be ruled out, history will prove you wrong puulenty.
What are you talking about? Are you suggesting that posting that youtube video counts as "careful research"?
How will history prove that a 14 year old girl invented social distancing in 2020, or that Sweden has already achieved herd immunity? Those things are patently false and there's no way that can ever change.
 

Verde

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Don't see the point in comparing 2020 to a time when things like smallpox were still a thing.
I think it provides perspective - the molehill in 2020 is made up of frail elderly people whose life expectancy spanned mere months.
The mountains in the 50's are mostly made up of children under 5, who lost many decades.
It is a far worse tragedy when Flu kills children, yet that generation kept going.
 

Brian_G

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How will history prove...
...Those things are patently false and there's no way that can ever change.
There's your bias right there - you don't believe it's provable but then call it patently false... not interested in your approach or attempts to justify.
 

Verde

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Good to hear. And when you spend as much time doing and sharing careful research about this subject as has been done tirelessly by the current regulars on this forum, for months, perhaps you can talk more. There's been little tolerance of the very garbage you mention, at least in these main threads, and few here have any doubt about how useless Whatsapp and other social media usually are.
Don't be so certain that the seemingly impossible can always be ruled out, history will prove you wrong puulenty.
I won't waste my time watching that video, but if you have, can you confirm if it states that Sweden reached herd immunity.
It is an objective fact that Sweden has not reached herd immunity.
 

pinball wizard

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Of course "herd immunity" is not too bad either. Makes us sound like cows. Or sheep. The herd of sheeple grazing in the pasture of corona waiting for the immunity dip.
 

Brian_G

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I won't waste my time watching that video, but if you have, can you confirm if it states that Sweden reached herd immunity.
It is an objective fact that Sweden has not reached herd immunity.
No, I haven't watched it and not sure I will.
The point is the guys referenced have indicated it has merit, not that it is some sort of end-all answers.
And I believe Sweden will now be at least closer to herd immunity, but neither know nor am I willing to translate what you posted ;-)
 

Brian_G

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It's nothing compared to the dearth of death that's on the way.
You really think so. Despite the comparatively "massively" low averaged worldwide mortality rate after nearly half a year?

("Massively" is a MyBB catch-term.)
 
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