International COVID-19 Updates & Discussion 2

Brian_G

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I think many of those people are on vacation and will take it back home so in addition to those specific areas we will probably see a greater impact around the US.
Normally I would agree, however given economic restraints the virus usually leads to I wouldn't think many would be choosing to take a vacation now.
Sigh... Again, there is no possible context in which you can say "sweden has reached herd immunity" that makes it true. Sweden has not reached herd immunity and the guy knows it, that's why he shifted his eyes away from the camera the exact second he said it. He is consciously lying.
Recent alternative opinion does exist. Here's one from a reasonable looking source;
 

Geoff.D

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Good find!
While I think we would agree that to talk of "Herd Immunity" is rather dubious, the guy in the video is by no means the only one referring to it in the case of Sweden.
So, criticising his video because of this and "reading anything into his eyes" just reflects @tetrasect 's personal bias.
To quote out of the article, however misleading we may think it is or not, it IS the view of the reporter and even the health authorities in Sweden possibly.

According to an article by political and social analysts in the latest issue of Foreign Affairs published by the Council on Foreign Relations, Swedish authorities have not officially declared a goal of reaching herd immunity against COVID-19, which most scientists believe is achieved when more than 60% of the population has had the virus. However, instead of declaring a lockdown, Sweden has asked its citizens to practice social distancing on a mostly voluntary basis. Swedish authorities have imposed some restrictions to flatten the curve, but have not introduced harsh controls, fines, policing, location-tracing technologies or apps. The analysts believe that augmenting immunity against COVID-19 is definitely part of Sweden’s broader strategy, with Anders Tegnell, the chief epidemiologist at Sweden’s Public Health Agency, projecting that Stockholm city could reach herd immunity as soon as this month. Based on calculations by Stockholm University mathematician Tom Britton, 40% immunity against COVID-19 in Sweden’s capital city should be sufficient to stop it from spreading in the region and that this could happen by mid-June.

Video Author: 1
Super expert critics on myBB: 0.
 
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Gordon_R

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Normally I would agree, however given economic restraints the virus usually leads to I wouldn't think many would be choosing to take a vacation now.

Recent alternative opinion does exist. Here's one from a reasonable looking source;
Herd immunity is not a fixed number, it is a model estimate based on the effective reproduction number Re (similar to R0). If R0 is very high (2-3) then herd immunity is incredibly difficult to achieve (70-80%). If R0 is very low (0.5) then herd immunity is possible (30-40%).

Having said that, no country has come close to herd immunity, and there is considerable speculation as to what factors influence the decline observed in many countries, ranging from behavioural changes, to unique viral traits, to prior immunity from exposure to related viruses.

Until more is known, decisions are based on guesswork, continuous monitoring, and further actions where necessary. This was discussed two months ago in a very perceptive article:
 

Brian_G

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Sure, far from an exact science and hard to clarify any of it. That's much of the point being made though - true that nobody can say it has certainly been reached or even shortly will be, but nobody can say it can't be either. That's where @tetrasect is being "too certain", and then allows his suspicions about the eyes to fuel it.

We all do this sometimes, the thing is not to let it take control of our emotions and rather allow for constant correcting, then we can maybe arrive at some truths.
 

Lupus

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Sure, far from an exact science and hard to clarify any of it. That's much of the point being made though - true that nobody can say it has certainly been reached or even shortly will be, but nobody can say it can't be either. That's where @tetrasect is being "too certain", and then allows his suspicions about the eyes to fuel it.

We all do this sometimes, the thing is not to let it take control of our emotions and rather allow for constant correcting, then we can maybe arrive at some truths.
Except in South Africa where they only look at the totals.
 

Geoff.D

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Herd immunity is not a fixed number, it is a model estimate based on the effective reproduction number Re (similar to R0). If R0 is very high (2-3) then herd immunity is incredibly difficult to achieve (70-80%). If R0 is very low (0.5) then herd immunity is possible (30-40%).

Having said that, no country has come close to herd immunity, and there is considerable speculation as to what factors influence the decline observed in many countries, ranging from behavioural changes, to unique viral traits, to prior immunity from exposure to related viruses.

Until more is known, decisions are based on guesswork, continuous monitoring, and further actions where necessary. This was discussed two months ago in a very perceptive article:
Not in dispute. The issue is the reaction of at least two members of this forum to the video, which just reflects their own bias and lack of having an open mind to a situation that is unproven and may never be proved in relation to Covid-19.
 

Chris_the_Brit

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Japan’s state of emergency is set to end as the number of new infections has dwindled, bringing fresh attention onto the way in which it ignored rules used widely elsewhere in the world. Japan placed no restrictions on residents’ movements, and businesses including sit-down restaurants and hairdressers remained open. It deployed no high tech apps to track movement of citizens and it tested just 0.2% of its population – another approach that went against conventional practice. Yet despite breaking all those rules, Japanese deaths have pretty much stopped at 820. Bloomberg reports that the Japanese success against Covid-19 has become a national conversation with reasons forwarded ranging from a culture of mask wearing through to a famously low obesity rate and also that speaking Japanese emits fewer saliva drops than other languages. Scientists say the country’s early grassroots response to rising infections was crucial. More than half Japan’s 50,000 public health nurses are experienced in infection tracing, in normal times tracking down flu and TB. They used this talent to great effect early on.

 

Brian_G

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Herd immunity is not a fixed number, it is a model estimate based on the effective reproduction number Re (similar to R0). If R0 is very high (2-3) then herd immunity is incredibly difficult to achieve (70-80%). If R0 is very low (0.5) then herd immunity is possible (30-40%).

Having said that, no country has come close to herd immunity, and there is considerable speculation as to what factors influence the decline observed in many countries, ranging from behavioural changes, to unique viral traits, to prior immunity from exposure to related viruses.

Until more is known, decisions are based on guesswork, continuous monitoring, and further actions where necessary. This was discussed two months ago in a very perceptive article:
As an aside now, what worries me the most is how much of the less-exact science interests are being power manipulated worldwide. Whether some sort of huge normally unimaginable group effort or just too many rotten politics in too many places in this on the edge world these days makes little difference IMO, either way it's still a major concern as to what can still be trusted.
 

Brian_G

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Japan’s state of emergency is set to end as the number of new infections has dwindled, bringing fresh attention onto the way in which it ignored rules used widely elsewhere in the world. Japan placed no restrictions on residents’ movements, and businesses including sit-down restaurants and hairdressers remained open. It deployed no high tech apps to track movement of citizens and it tested just 0.2% of its population – another approach that went against conventional practice. Yet despite breaking all those rules, Japanese deaths have pretty much stopped at 820. Bloomberg reports that the Japanese success against Covid-19 has become a national conversation with reasons forwarded ranging from a culture of mask wearing through to a famously low obesity rate and also that speaking Japanese emits fewer saliva drops than other languages. Scientists say the country’s early grassroots response to rising infections was crucial. More than half Japan’s 50,000 public health nurses are experienced in infection tracing, in normal times tracking down flu and TB. They used this talent to great effect early on.

Thanks, some real hope here.
Pity about the masks reference they make though, too well discussed to be thought a real major factor by us, surely. And certainly a health hindrance with exercising etc.
 

OrbitalDawn

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Re. Sweden - it's very misleading to talk about them as if they've had no restrictions - they closed schools and universities, banned events larger than 50 people, closed the borders, etc.

So they're obviously less restrictive than some other countries, but they still implemented restrictions.
 

tetrasect

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Normally I would agree, however given economic restraints the virus usually leads to I wouldn't think many would be choosing to take a vacation now.

Recent alternative opinion does exist. Here's one from a reasonable looking source;
Good find!
While I think we would agree that to talk of "Herd Immunity" is rather dubious, the guy in the video is by no means the only one referring to it in the case of Sweden.
So, criticising his video because of this and "reading anything into his eyes" just reflects @tetrasect 's personal bias.
To quote out of the article, however misleading we may think it is or not, it IS the view of the reporter and even the health authorities in Sweden possibly.


Video Author: 1
Super expert critics on myBB: 0.
Nowhere in that article does it say that Sweden has reached herd immunity and Swedish authorities have never claimed it has. In fact I haven't heard anybody make that claim except for that guy in the video.

Sure, far from an exact science and hard to clarify any of it. That's much of the point being made though - true that nobody can say it has certainly been reached or even shortly will be, but nobody can say it can't be either. That's where @tetrasect is being "too certain", and then allows his suspicions about the eyes to fuel it.

We all do this sometimes, the thing is not to let it take control of our emotions and rather allow for constant correcting, then we can maybe arrive at some truths.
We can most definitely say that herd immunity has not been reached, else there wouldn't be any new cases! Simple as that.
Besides, recent antibody testing done in Stockholm showed only 7.5% of those tested have had the disease.

Instead of knocking me for being "too certain" of a pretty much undisputed fact (and somehow confusing that with emotion???) maybe you can explain why you or anyone else would think that herd immunity has been reached in Sweden?
 
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tetrasect

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Japan’s state of emergency is set to end as the number of new infections has dwindled, bringing fresh attention onto the way in which it ignored rules used widely elsewhere in the world. Japan placed no restrictions on residents’ movements, and businesses including sit-down restaurants and hairdressers remained open. It deployed no high tech apps to track movement of citizens and it tested just 0.2% of its population – another approach that went against conventional practice. Yet despite breaking all those rules, Japanese deaths have pretty much stopped at 820. Bloomberg reports that the Japanese success against Covid-19 has become a national conversation with reasons forwarded ranging from a culture of mask wearing through to a famously low obesity rate and also that speaking Japanese emits fewer saliva drops than other languages. Scientists say the country’s early grassroots response to rising infections was crucial. More than half Japan’s 50,000 public health nurses are experienced in infection tracing, in normal times tracking down flu and TB. They used this talent to great effect early on.

I think the main thing besides the mask wearing is that in Japanese culture there is no physical contact between people. Makes complete sense that in places like France and Italy where people kiss each other on the cheek multiple times as a greeting the virus would spread the easiest, in places where people shake hands it would spread a little slower and in places like Japan the spread would be severely restricted. They basically practice social distancing and wear masks by default.
 

Gordon_R

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