International COVID-19 Updates & Discussion 2

Brian_G

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Nowhere in that article does it say that Sweden has reached herd immunity and Swedish authorities have never claimed it has. In fact I haven't heard anybody make that claim except for that guy in the video.

We can most definitely say that herd immunity has not been reached, else there wouldn't be any new cases! Simple as that.
Besides, recent antibody testing done in Stockholm showed only 7.5% of those tested have had the disease.

[Quoter's note - Above paragraph instead discussed in my next post]
Instead of knocking me for being "too certain" of a pretty much undisputed fact (and somehow confusing that with emotion???) maybe you can explain why you or anyone else would think that herd immunity has been reached in Sweden?
Try actually reading what @Geoff.D posted from the article, believably claimed to be quoted from a senior medical representative of the country. They think it could be reached in some areas as early as this month, close enough since there's no definite finish line involved...
Stop wriggling like a snake, else I'm done debating with you - there ARE other factors to consider.

As for there not ever then being new cases, nonsense, that's too closed minded - for e.g. someone can come back from abroad with it all over again.

EDIT: See my next post re the coloured paragraph.
 
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pinball wizard

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I am doing my own scientific research. I need a peer reviews :)

The ten countries with the highest smoking rates are:
  • Greece (42.65%)
  • Serbia (41.65%)
  • Russia (40.90%)
  • Jordan (40.45%)
  • Indonesia (39.90%)
  • Bosnia and Herzegovina (38.60%)
  • Lebanon (38.30%)
  • Chile (38.00%)
All of the above have very little death rates(and not draconial lockdowns in many). There are many other countries with very high smoking e.g Bulgaria, Turkey , Russia , some more in the middle east...
Going through it fast on first glance , they have very low mortality... conclusions?
They didn't copy/paste western style lockdowns. They seem to be doing it their own way. I would hazard a guess that the smoking correlation is incidental, not causal to their low mortality.
 

Brian_G

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Besides, recent antibody testing done in Stockholm showed only 7.5% of those tested have had the disease.
Dealing with this statement separately;
Now this part is worth further consideration - if enough people were so tested agreed it puts much doubt into play. But that doesn't make our conclusions and thoughts on the matter invalid, just open to further consideration now. (Note the use of the word "open".)
 

MiW

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They didn't copy/paste western style lockdowns. They seem to be doing it their own way. I would hazard a guess that the smoking correlation is incidental, not causal to their low mortality.
It's not just low mortality, it didn't spread as much at all, even that they have full public transport running and most of them only closed restaurants cinemas and sport events.And you can not even try to make Greeks or eastern Europeans, to obey any restrictions.
 

pinball wizard

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It's not just low mortality, it didn't spread as much at all, even that they have full public transport running and most of them only closed restaurants cinemas and sport events.And you can not even try to make Greeks or eastern Europeans, to obey any restrictions.
Maybe so, but to say the smoking is the cause seems like a reach. I don't see any long term study being done on this as yet, and it appears purely anecdotal for now.

Also, I have friends in Greece who went into self isolation back in Feb already, so there seems to also be something else at play that put them ahead of the curve.
 

MiW

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There was a peer reviewed study from Greek cardiologist (who has 70 previously published studies , about the harm of smoking) confirming that smokers have lower chances to get severe Covid-19.
Coming from a guy who spent his life on anti smoking campaigns , that is a big thing.
 

Brian_G

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Having said that, no country has come close to herd immunity, and there is considerable speculation as to what factors influence the decline observed in many countries, ranging from behavioural changes, to unique viral traits, to prior immunity from exposure to related viruses.

Until more is known, decisions are based on guesswork, continuous monitoring, and further actions where necessary.
Going back to this factor of your post which has been worrying me - it then appears there's no ways at all to ever determine a state of herd immunity if reached under current confusion, which one presumes is always going to be confusing when within a virus etc. experience like this one... so then only can be determined in hindsight?

Therefore I'm presuming that anyone with good medical knowledge who claims they're close or approaching it are making a guestimate which can only be backed up by probability?
 

Gordon_R

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Going back to this factor of your post which has been worrying me - it then appears there's no ways at all to ever determine a state of herd immunity if reached under current confusion, which one presumes is always going to be confusing when within a virus etc. experience like this one... so then only can be determined in hindsight?

Therefore I'm presuming that anyone with good medical knowledge who claims they're close or approaching it are making a guestimate which can only be backed up by probability?
This issue was touched on in some of the modelling projection threads. Various forecasts can be made, but mostly there is not enough data to make accurate predictions. The only thing we can be sure of is that large gatherings of people will remain high risk environments.

The short answer is that we really do not understand the full impact of this virus yet. The upside is that for various reasons, no epidemic in history ever infects the entire population. Many fizzle after burning through the most highly exposed, leaving the majority of the population unscathed, though secondary waves are common.
 

Lupus

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This issue was touched on in some of the modelling projection threads. Various forecasts can be made, but mostly there is not enough data to make accurate predictions. The only thing we can be sure of is that large gatherings of people will remain high risk environments.

The short answer is that we really do not understand the full impact of this virus yet. The upside is that for various reasons, no epidemic in history ever infects the entire population. Many fizzle after burning through the most highly exposed, leaving the majority of the population unscathed, though secondary waves are common.
Even the deadliest pandemics only hit 25 to 40% of populations. The largest was smallpox though in Native Americas hitting apparently an estimated 90%. Apparently.
 

Gordon_R

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Even the deadliest pandemics only hit 25 to 40% of populations. The largest was smallpox though in Native Americas hitting apparently an estimated 90%. Apparently.
I was referring to infection rates (in the context of herd-immunity), not mortality rates which are significantly lower for Covid. The broad point remains, widespread and deadly pandemics are very rare in history, though lesser ones are common.
 

Lupus

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I was referring to infection rates (in the context of herd-immunity), not mortality rates which are significantly lower for Covid. The broad point remains, widespread and deadly pandemics are very rare in history, though lesser ones are common.
Ah right sorry :) I was referring to mortality whoops.
 

Brian_G

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Ah right sorry :) I was referring to mortality whoops.
I've done that as well once or twice, and we're all supposedly well practiced by now, lol.

I think most of the world is endlessly confused by the two, which is why panic is so easy to cause.
 

Lupus

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I've done that as well once or twice, and we're all supposedly well practiced by now, lol.

I think most of the world is endlessly confused by the two, which is why panic is so easy to cause.
Yup, but still even that shows you the worst pandemics don't wipe out the entire world, so we weren't all going to die. Though the repercussions can cause more issues, or in the case of the first black plague it actually started a slight golden age.
 

Gordon_R

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I've done that as well once or twice, and we're all supposedly well practiced by now, lol.

I think most of the world is endlessly confused by the two, which is why panic is so easy to cause.
Its much more complex than that. We have:
positive cases, asymptomatic infections, infected cases, known deaths, suspected deaths, daily figures, testing backlogs, cumulative totals, estimated infection rates, inferred population infection totals, basic reproduction numbers, doubling period, herd immunity, etc.

Edit: I left out a whole catalogue of numbers:
case mortality rate, infection mortality rate, age-specific mortality rates, co-morbidity rates, years-of-life lost, etc.

Anyone who pretends to understand all of this, and believes that any or all of the numbers are accurate, is living on another planet.
 

Lupus

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Its much more complex than that: We have positive cases, asymptomatic infections, infected cases, known deaths, suspected deaths, daily figures, testing backlogs, cumulative totals, estimated infection rates, inferred population infection totals, basic reproduction numbers, doubling period, herd immunity, etc.

Anyone who pretends to understand all of this, and believes that any or all of the numbers are accurate, is living on another planet.
It's freaking impossible, hence even today we say it was estimated to kill 50 million, even wars we don't know the true extent of all the casualities.
 

Brian_G

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Yup, but still even that shows you the worst pandemics don't wipe out the entire world, so we weren't all going to die. Though the repercussions can cause more issues, or in the case of the first black plague it actually started a slight golden age.
And then there's the vicious Smallpox pandemic you mentioned... so seems nothing can be set in stone, not even how rare bad ones are.
 

Lupus

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And then there's the vicious Smallpox pandemic you mentioned... so seems nothing can be set in stone, not even how rare bad ones are.
Well the smallpox one wiped out most of the native American population, limiting it to small tribes all over. Europeans arrived and were amazed at how the US seemed to be natually laid out for people to inhabit, forests planted perfectly, pathways and such across a vast continient, not realising that it was because of the previous people they technically wiped out.
 
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